Thursday Night Football Picks: Buccaneers vs. Eagles Odds & Predictions

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Buccaneers vs. Eagles Odds

Buccaneers Odds -6.5
Eagles Odds +6.5
Over/Under 52.5
Date Thursday, Oct 14
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
TV NFL Network

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles will open Week 6 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football at Lincoln Financial Field. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for the Buccaneers, pricing Tampa Bay as a touchdown favorite on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, the Buccaneers appear to be the league’s best offense. Tom Brady leads the league in passing yards. Brady is also second in passing touchdowns with 15, and has thrown only two interceptions (neither of which were his fault). Tampa Bay has one of the best offensive lines in football. Neither Tristan Wirfs nor Ali Marpet has allowed a sack yet this fall. Per Pro Football Focus, nobody else on this offensive line has allowed more than one sack. This group has been excellent in both rush and pass protection, which is a big reason that this offense is a threat to produce 40 points on any given week.

Linebacker Lavonte David and Safety Antoine Winfield will be inactive tonight, due to both players dealing with the injury bug. Richard Sherman made waves in the media a couple of weeks ago when he signed with Tampa Bay, but he has been underwhelming, to say the least, so far in his tenure with the Buccaneers. However, he is unlikely to be over-exposed tonight against a relatively weak Philadelphia wide receiver corps. Jamel Dean is likely to handle the majority of work on DeVonta Smith, which should mostly neutralize the Eagles top pass-catcher. Mike Edwards has gotten better each week at safety, which has helped to limit Tampa Bay’s vulnerability to the deep ball. However, the middle of the field is still a tremendous issue for the Buccaneers, who could be further hampered by the absence of David in this one. Still, the best defensive line in football is likely to do enough to make Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense uncomfortable for the majority of the evening.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5)

Hurts ranks 28th in the league with a 37.1 QBR in 2021. He has only seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Twice, he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in a game. The Eagles offensive line has been surprisingly solid early this fall, but Thursday’s matchup against the Buccaneers will be unquestionably their toughest task to date. Per Pro Football Focus, Jordan Mailata has allowed only four pressures on 120 snaps at right tackle. Jason Kelce once again looks like one of the best centers in football. Andre Dillard has taken a noticeable leap forward in his sophomore season at left tackle. Tonight, the main issue is going to be mitigating the negative impact of Landon Dickerson and Nate Herbig against a ferocious opposing pass rush.

On the defensive side of the ball, Josh Sweat, Derek Barnett, Fletcher Cox, and Javon Hargrave have been excellent in recent weeks. Darius Slay and Steven Nelson have been outstanding at cornerback and figure to be the toughest opposing secondary unit that Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin have seen all year. Similar to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia is vulnerable in the middle of the field. Eric Wilson, Alex Singleton, and Genard Avery form one of the worst linebacker units in the NFL. Brady and the Buccaneers are going to score points on everyone, but this is going to be one of the better defenses that they have had to deal with in 2021. They might only get to 30 points on Thursday.

Buccaneers vs. Eagles Picks

The total in this game has been one of the most volatile numbers on the NFL market during the early part of this week. After opening at over/under 52.5, this line has been pushed both higher and lower than its initial price, but has settled back at 52.5 as of this morning. Tampa Bay is an elite offense, but they are facing one of the tougher defenses in football this evening. Hurts and the Eagles are not going to be able to run the ball, which means that Hurts is going to have to put points on the board through the air—a task easier said than done for a young quarterback against a dominant pass rush. The total is priced too high in this one. Both defenses should be able to slow down the opposing offense at least a little bit. Take the under here.

PICKS: Under 52.5 (-110)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom