Thursday Night Football Picks: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Last season they were swapping jerseys, now Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are neck-and-neck in the NFL MVP race, with no game more important in the NFC West than a rematch between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football Odds: Cardinals at Seahawks
Online sportsbooks technically opened the Seahawks a 5.5-point favorites before things played out in Week 10. That number shortened by Sunday night following a miracle in the desert on behalf of Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, all while the Seahawks’ lost their third game in four weeks.
On the eve of Thursday Night Football, Seattle is favored by three points across the sports betting industry as oddsmakers test NFL bettors with a 57.5-point total (or Over/Under).
Of course, as highly anticipated as this game may be, it’s tough to imagine a game more exciting than its first iteration a month ago.
In Week 7, Murray and Wilson had their third of what should be many more division battles. Fresh off their bye week, the Seahawks traveled to Arizona as one of the last remaining undefeated teams. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were a respectable 4-2 but had yet to beat a team with a winning recording. By this time, Wilson was the odds-on-favorite to win NFL MVP. Murray’s numbers were great, but without a key win, he remained roughly where he started the season in terms of MVP odds. As such, the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites and the game had a high total of 55.
The total wasn’t high enough.
The two offenses traded scores throughout the night, but Murray ultimately got the best of Wilson, leading the Cardinals to a 37-34 victory in overtime.
It wasn’t quite the Miracle in the Desert that we witnessed last Sunday, but the Cardinals did trail the Seahawks by 10 points at halftime. Despite his relative inexperience, the 23-year-old ultimately out-dueled Wilson in the second half. Sure, the veteran finished with more total yards, but Murray was the more accurate, prudent thrower, completing 34-of-48 passes and throwing only one interception. At the same time, three of Wilson’s 17 incompletions were actually caught by Cardinals defenders.
Also Read: NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks
Thursday Night Football Picks: Cardinals at Seahawks
If the Seahawks want to win and cover the spread Thursday night, they must find a way to pressure Murray. It seemed as if the only time Murray was touched was when he was already running the ball downfield. In fact, the Seahawks didn’t earn a single sack that night. Arizona only took down Wilson twice, but they applied enough pressure to force the MVP hopeful into making several poor decisions.
The Seahawks haven’t only had problems getting to Murray, though. Since the start of the season, the defense has been lackluster, ranking 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have stayed clean on nearly 70% of dropbacks, which means only seven teams have been more polite to passers through the first ten weeks.
As for Wilson, Week 7 was his first bad performance of 2020 but it wasn’t his last. Since then, Wilson has had two additional multi-interception games, throwing a total of seven interceptions through the last four weeks. His game against the Rams was particularly bad. Not only will the Seahawks defense need to step up, but Wilson also has to return to form.
Pick Against the Spread (Seahawks -3)
If history is any indication, Russ will overcome the recent series of mental errors sooner than later. He might not have an MVP trophy to his name, but Wilson has consistently been one of the league’s best quarterbacks. There’s no reason to think this slump will last, even against an above-average pass defense. Home-field might not be as much of an advantage in 2020, but we’re getting a shorter spread in Seattle than in Arizona less than a month ago. That game could have gone either way, and the Cardinals were lucky to come out with the win. Now bettors are riding high on Arizona after what might be the best play we’ll see all year last Sunday.
Thursday Night Football Pick: Seahawks -3
Over/Under Pick (Under 57.5)
These teams combined for 67 points in Week 7, but it took some huge plays, including a three-play 75-yard touchdown drive plus a 49-yard field goal in the final minute of the second quarter, to do so. I won’t be surprised if Pete Carroll overreacts to Wilson’s recent struggles and forces more handoffs into the gameplan. An additional temptation might be the status of Tyler Lockett, who is currently listed with ‘Questionable’ tage on the injury report, and an Arizona defense that allows 120.2 rushing yards per game (120.8 per road game) and 4.5 yards per rush attempt. I know there are more worthy advanced metrics to use here, but Carroll strikes me as a guy who isn’t above cherry picking stats.
Thursday Night Football Pick: Under 57.5
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Odds to Win the NFC West
- Seahawks +175 (William Hill)
- Rams +180 (Unibet)
- Cardinals +250 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- 49ers +7000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals all currently sit 6-3, but NFC West divisional odds vary across sportsbooks. I’m sticking with the Seahawks as my division pick. You can bet Seattle +175 to win the NFC West at William Hill.
Worth noting, the Rams face the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, per ESPN’s FPI, while the Seahawks’ have the fourth-easiest, which includes matchups with three teams from the NFC East.
Image Credit: Imagn