NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks
Before get to NFL Week 11 lines and betting picks, let’s recap the weekend. Underdogs continued to cash on Sunday, going 8-3-1 against the spread and making their year-to-date record 81-60-3, per VegasInsider. Some underdogs didn’t even need the spread; the Falcons beat the Saints to headline a list of major upsets, including wins for the Titans, Dolphins, and Vikings.
As for last week’s article, my early betting card went 1-3. Disappointing, but we did consistently beat the closing line, which should pay off in the long run. Now let’s take an early look at NFL Week 11 lines and betting picks. We’ll try to continue to spot soft numbers early, helping us beat the closing line come Sunday.
NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 40.5
- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -6.5, O/U 50.5
- Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins +6.5, O/U 39
- Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions +3.5
- Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings -10.5, O/U 39.5
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -4.5, O/U 50
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -3, O/U 44
- New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5, O/U 51
- New York Jets at Washington Redskins -1, O/U 37.5
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -13.5, O/U 45.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders -10.5, O/U 48.5
- New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles +3.5, O/U 44.4
All odds referenced herein are from FanDuel Sportsbook and accurate as of Tuesday morning unless otherwise stated.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 40.5
We finally cashed our Browns ticket, but it took a bit of drama to do so. Week 11’s meeting between Freddie Kitchens and Mike Tomlin features, on one side, arguably the worst coach in the NFL and on the other side, a coach who should be in the discussion for Coach of the Year. After starting the season 0-3, the Steelers have won five of their last six games. Tomlin and the Steelers coaching staff have adjusted to their personnel when needed, giving Pittsburgh a real opportunity to make the playoffs.
Though the Steelers clearly have the coaching advantage, I’m riding with the Browns again. Aside from the offensive line, Cleveland has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They added to that talent with Kareem Hunt on Sunday, giving the running back 11 touches in his first game back from an eight-game suspension.
My Pick: Browns -2.5
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -6.5, O/U 50.5
The Falcons beat the Saints as +600 underdogs Sunday, resulting in the biggest outright upset of the NFL 2019-20 season to date. The Panthers fell inches short of possibly sending the Packers to overtime at Lambeau. As Sunday showed, the Falcons aren’t as bad as their record is. Unfortunately, they might be without Devonta Freeman after the running back was forced to leave early with a leg injury. This spread is down a half-point from FanDuel’s opening lookahead line last week. I lean with the Falcons to keep this close, and maybe pull off another upset.
Lean: Falcons +6.5
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins +6.5, O/U 39
Many people didn’t think the Miami Dolphins would win a game this season, but out of nowhere, the Dolphins are now 2-7. They’ll host a team whose record is inflated by easy wins. As we touched on last week, Buffalo’s six wins have come against teams that are a combined 12-47 for the season. I lean Miami, but I prefer to take the Under.
Lean: Under 39
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions +3.5
Turmoil is brewing in Dallas again after a disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football. Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper looked great, but the running game was a different story. In fact, it was the first time since 2007 that the Cowboys failed to get a rushing first down. The defense also underperformed while Jason Garrett continued what’s become a habit of questionable coaching decisions. Dallas has only one win outside of their division. Similarly, they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record. Despite the obvious red flags, I think the Cowboys get back on track in Detroit. I’ll be shocked if Matt Stafford returns this week, one of the reasons why I want to lock this bet in now.
My Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings -10.5, O/U 39.5
The Denver Broncos return from their bye week, a week that was hopefully used to get back up quarterback Brandon Allen more acclimated with the playbook and offense. Before the bye, Allen went from waived to an NFL winner in one week. The Vikings, at U.S. Bank Stadium, will be a much tougher test than the Browns at Mile High, though. The Vikings have won five of their last six, with their lone loss coming against the Kansas City Chiefs. What was a rocky start to the season has turned into a season of optimism. Kirk Cousins stepped up after being called out by his receivers. If Adam Theilen gets healthy and Cousins continues to play well, the Vikings can beat anyone in the conference. I’ll lay double-digit points against the Broncos and Allen. I’ll probably be playing the Vikings defense in DFS as well.
My Pick: Vikings 10.5
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -4.5, O/U 50
Schedule this one to record, folks. Even if you watch it live, there will be plenty of highlights as two premier young talents will be behind center. Lamar Jackson continues to prove he’s not only a threat with his legs, but that he can beat defenses through the air. Jackson has made the Ravens the most creative offense in the NFL, completing two games with a perfect passer rating this season. Jackson is just the sixth player to have multiple games with a perfect passer rating in the history of the NFL and only the second to have two perfect games in the same season. Super Bowl and MVP hype surround Baltimore, but this could be a let-down spot. Jackson is as deserving of MVP as any quarterback through the first 10 weeks, but I’m siding with Deshaun Watson and the Texans if I’m getting 4.5 points.
My Pick: Texans +4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -3, O/U 44
Nick Foles returns against the Colts who hope to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins. With Jacoby Brissett’s status up in the air, I want more information before I bet anything of significance but I will go ahead and lock the Jaguars in for a small bet with the off-chance Brissett sits again.
My Pick: Jaguars +3
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5, O/U 51
The Saints have porous secondary to attack a week after being on the losing side of the biggest upset of the season. Michael Thomas will have a huge day, but the question is, do they beat Tampa Bay by 5? I think they do, and if you are betting on the Saints, it’s probably better to hop on now than later.
My Pick: Saints -5
New York Jets at Washington Redskins -1, O/U 37.5
Announced Monday, Dwayne Haskins will be the Redskins’ starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. Haskins has struggled so far, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns on the year. He looked more comfortable in a 24-9 loss to the Bills before going on bye. Still, Haskins as very little to work with and a culture of losing and dysfunctionality has taken its toll on the Redskins locker room. I’ll be betting on the Jets.
My Pick: Jets +1
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -13.5, O/U 45.5
The Arizona Cardinals are 3-6 overall, but betting on first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray has been plenty profitable. The duo is 7-3 ATS (4-1 on the road). This is a huge spread and I lean towards San Francisco at first glance, but I want to wait to see the Monday Night Football game before I do anything.
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders -10.5, O/U 48.5
If you had told me the Raiders would be double-digit favorites at any point this season, I would have called you crazy. Yet, here we are. The Bengals lay claim to being the worst team in the NFL and Ryan Finley struggled in his first career start last week. 48.5 points seem like a lot for any game with the Bengals offense playing.
My Pick: Under 48.5
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles +3.5, O/U 44.4
Is there anything scarier than Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a bye week? With at least eight days of preparation time, the Patriots are 30-16-3 ATS in the regular season since 2003. I’m sure I’m joining the public here, but I’m not betting against the Patriots in this spot regardless.
My Pick: Patriots -3.5
Check back for more in-depth NFL betting previews for Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football later in the week.
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