NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks 2021
Tom Brady looks to bounce back, Aaron Rodgers visits another division rival, and Dak Prescott’s MVP moment may be waiting for him in Kansas City. Follow along as NFL betting analyst previews Week 11 lines and gives you picks for every game, starting with the Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
NFL Week 11 Lines
- Patriots at Falcons +6.5, O/U 47
- Colts at Bills -7, O/U 49.5
- Texans at Titans -10, O/U 44.5
- Packers at Vikings +2.5, O/U 49.5
- Lions at Browns -10, O/U 44.5
- Saints at Eagles -1.5, O/U 43.5
- 49ers at Jaguars +6, O/U 45.5
- Ravens at Bears +6, O/U 45.5
- Dolphins at Jets +3, O/U 45.5
- Washington at Panthers -3.5, O/U 43.5
- Bengals at Raiders +1, O/U 49.5
- Cowboys at Chiefs -2.5, O/U 56
- Cardinals at Seahawks +2.5, O/U 49
- Steelers at Chargers -5.5 O/U 47
- Giants at Buccaneers -10.5, O/U 49.5
NFL Week 11 Betting Picks
Patriots at Falcons +6.5, O/U 47
Normally I’d say to bet the underdog in a Thursday Night Football game, especially where the favorite is laying a touchdown with a rookie under center. But the Patriots look legit, and we all know they show up to play the Falcons. Atlanta just got totally rocked by the Cowboys 43-3, while New England whooped the Browns 45-7. Yeah, I’ll take the ever-improving Mac Jones, the Pats’ running game, and Bill Belichick’s masterful defense. Surprise, surprise—the Pats are contenders. With no Calvin Ridley (mental health leave), no Cordarrelle Patterson (high ankle sprain), and multiple defenders banged up, the ATL might not be ready for this one. Belichick always has his boys primed in a short week—the Falcons might be waving the white flag by halftime.
PICK: Patriots -6.5, OVER 47
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Colts at Bills -7, O/U 49.5
We did get some things right last week, and one of them was Buffalo boat-racing the Jets. Now the Bills get the Colts, who have played two bottom-of-the-barrel teams with questionable results over the past two games. Three Thursdays ago, Indy beat the Jets but allowed them to score 30 points. Last weekend, Indy got off to a hot start against Jacksonville and almost sleepwalked the Jags back into the game. A big part of me says trust Carson Wentz, who has had a great season as the Colts QB, but Buffalo’s defense has been almost as impressive as its offense. Indy’s offense only scored one touchdown on Jacksonville all game—a run by stud second-year back Jonathan Taylor. Don’t expect Josh Allen and the Bills to hand over 16 points.
PICK: Bills -7
Texans at Titans -10, O/U 44.5
Sometimes, we overcomplicate things. We won’t here. The Texans suck, and the Titans have surprisingly become the class of the AFC. Tennessee managed to beat a good Saints defense last week without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones (and with A.J. Brown catching one ball all game). The Titans’ six-game winning streak includes victims like Buffalo, Kansas City, and the LA Rams. Tennessee has gone 7-3 against the spread this season—buy a half-point for insurance, but this feels as promising as a
PICK: Titans -3
Packers at Vikings +2.5, O/U 49.5
The Packers just keep on winning, even with bruising second-year back A.J. Dillon replacing dual-threat stud Aaron Jones (MCL sprain). Green Bay’s most recent victim? The Seattle Seahawks, who managed to get shut out 17-0 at Lambeau despite getting Russell Wilson back. Back from his homeopathic home arrest, Aaron Rodgers threw for a casual 292 yards, 78 of which Davante Adams hauled in on seven catches. But the biggest storylines were Green Bay’s defense, and Seattle’s inability to tackle Dillon. The Boston College product had 168 total yards and two TDs on the day. Now he draws a Vikings defense that allows 130.6 ground yards and 0.9 rushing TDs per game. The Vikings are pretty good—they just beat the Chargers in LA—but I don’t think they are good enough to beat Rodgers’ Packers.
PICK: Packers -2.5
Lions at Browns -10, O/U 44.5
Well, the Lions’ losing streak is over, but their winless streak remains. They showed good fight on both sides of the ball against Pittsburgh, and deserve to be closer to +7 against a Browns team that just got smoked out by the Patriots. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has a sore shoulder, his wideouts are banged up (or gone), and we have barely seen RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt together and healthy this season. I’m in no way, shape, or form telling you to bet Detroit outright—its moneyline is +400—but I can’t blame you one bit if you take the Lions +10 or the OVER of 44.5 points. Three of Detroit’s last four games have exceeded 44 points, and Cleveland’s last two contests both reached 52-plus points.
PICK: Lions +10, OVER 44.5
Saints at Eagles -1.5, O/U 43.5
The Eagles have started to focus on their running game more prominently, and it has really paid off for QB Jalen Hurts and company. On Sunday, we saw plenty of downfield opportunities open up for Hurts and BFF wideout DaVante Smith, who connected for four catches, 66 yards, and two scores in Philly’s route of the Broncos in Denver. Meanwhile, New Orleans lost 23-21 to Tennessee, despite the Titans totaling just 198 air yards and 66 on the ground. Backup Saints QB Trevor Siemian threw for 298 yards and two TDs, but he was too erratic and off-target (19/34) to establish a good rhythm. Without Alvin Kamara (knee), Jameis Winston (torn ACL), and Michael Thomas (ankle)—New Orleans’ three best offensive players—I don’t like the Saints on the road against a young, healthy, and run-fueled Eagles team at home.
PICK: Eagles -1.5, OVER 43.5
49ers at Jaguars +6, O/U 45.5
The Jaguars have played much better over the past few weeks, but they’ll face a hot Niners squad Sunday that’s scratching and clawing its way up the NFC standings. San Fran tight end George Kittle is back and as good as ever, and breakout rookie running back Elijah Mitchell has been dazzling. Throw in some textbook 49ers defense, and you have a recipe for playoff contention. If San Fran can dominate the Rams in primetime, it should be able to beat Jacksonville by a touchdown.
PICK: 49ers -6
Ravens at Bears +6, O/U 45.5
The Ravens are coming off a brutal 22-10 loss to the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football (ouch), but I like them to bounce back against a shaky Chicago offense. John Harbaugh usually gets his squad up after a loss, especially with extra days of preparation. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson gets back to his MVP-contending ways, and the Ravens blow the cover off the Bears.
PICK: Ravens -6.5
Dolphins at Jets +3, O/U 44.5
I want nothing to do with this game, honestly. Jets QB Mike White looked like the Jeremy Lin of football when he first broke out, but then he threw four interceptions against Buffalo last weekend. And Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was still too hurt with a finger injury to start last week, but then came in when backup Jacoby Brissett got hurt. This all stinks, so stay away. Bet the OVER if you really have to mess with this game.
PICK: OVER 44.5
Washington at Panthers -3.5, O/U 43.5
Here’s another game you’re better off avoiding. In a battle of two squads that don’t know if they’re good or not—and will each start backup QBs—we need to determine who will win. No thanks. WFT just knocked off the Buccaneers somehow, while the Panthers beat an injury-ravaged Cardinals team. I’d lean toward Carolina at home with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey healthy, but the “(player-popup #p-j-walker)P.J. Walker” Cam Newton QB situation against an improving WFT defense worries me a bit.
PICK: Panthers -3 (buy a half-point)
Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Bengals at Raiders +1, O/U 49.5
The Bengals are coming off their bye week, and jump right into battle against a reeling Raiders team. I think Cincy QB Joe Burrow and his potent offense should be able to get it done on the road here. The Raiders just got their faces kicked in by Kansas City 41-14 on national television, unable to slow down a Chiefs offense that features multiple explosive weapons. The Bengals also have multiple explosive weapons, so I’m honestly surprised Cincy isn’t favored by more like a field goal. Vegas can’t keep up with just tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs.
PICK: Bengals -1
Cowboys at Chiefs -2.5, O/U 55.5
This could be the game of the week, with two heavyweight offenses squaring off at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes looked like he was back to his MVP and Super Bowl-winning self last week against Las Vegas, turning it on for 406 yards and five touchdowns. Lord of mercy! Dallas surrenders 271 passing yards per away game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. I think this will be a barn-burner—with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys coming off a 43-3 romping off the Falcons, in which they put up 431 yards—but I like the AFC defending-champs at home.
PICK: Chiefs -2.5
Cardinals at Seahawks +2.5, O/U 49
How do we adequately evaluate a game like this early in the week? We haven’t seen Cardinals QB and MVP candidate Kyler Murray or All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins in weeks, and now running back Chase Edmonds might miss time. And on the other side, Russell Wilson was back under center Sunday but looked as bad as we have ever seen him. Two thumbs down on all accounts. Wait for later in the week to mess with this game.
PICK: Pass – OVER 49
Monday & Sunday Night Football Picks
Steelers at Chargers -5.5 O/U 47
The Steelers just had a tie with a winless Lions team, while the Chargers fell to the Vikings for their third loss in four games. I’m leaning toward the Chargers at SoFi Stadium, with second-year stud QB “(player-popup #justin-herbert)Justin Herbert”:/players/justin-herbert-1849725’s penchant for dominating primetime games. In three career night games, Herbert has nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 116.7 QB rating. The Steelers D might be good, but it’s not good enough to keep Big Ben Roethlisberger and his noodle arm in this one for four quarters. I’ll take the Chargers by a touchdown (and probably be totally wrong because underdogs always show up in primetime).
PICK: OVER 47.5
Giants at Buccaneers -10.5, O/U 49.5
I can’t go chalk in all three primetime games—that would be like throwing money away. This one seems like the logical choice to go with the underdog to cover. The Giants just beat the Raiders 23-16 on Sunday Night Football, one week after nearly upsetting the reigning AFC-champion Chiefs. New York’s defense is for real, and their offense might be getting superstar running back Saquon Barkley back this week. That gives us plenty of reasons to like the G-men, before we even consider that the Bucs just lost to the Washington Football Team 29-19, one week after falling to the Saints 36-27. Tom Brady may be the GOAT, but he’s not impervious to upper-echelon defenses at 44 years old. And his barrage of offensive weapons has been reduced considerably due to injury since the start of the season. We haven’t seen tight end Rob Gronkowski in what seems like forever, and wideout Antonio Brown is still nursing a high ankle sprain. On “Undie Night Football,” we will take the Giants with the 10.5 points.
PICK: Giants +10.5, UNDER 49.5
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