What Are the Chances Tiger, Phil, Peyton or Tom Hit a Hole-In-One?
Tiger Woods has hit 20 hole-in-ones in his lifetime, and Phil Mickelson made PGA Tour history when he recorded the first-ever ace on a Par 4 during a tournament nearly 20 years ago. Their playing partners, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, have some hole-in-one stories as well. So it’s no surprise that a hole-in-one prop is among a plethora of options you’ll find at legal U.S. sportsbooks for The Match: Charity for Champions, but what are the chances one of these four golfers actually hits a hole-in-one this Sunday?
According to American Hole ‘n One, professional golfers have a 1 in 2,500 chance of holing out on a par 3. That number jumps to 1 in 12,500 for amateurs.
The Medalist Golf Club, originally designed by Greg Norman and Pete Dye, will give each golfer four opportunities to hit an ace through its quartet of par 3s stretching more than 800 yards from the tips (the tee boxes Tiger and Phil will be playing from). Given AHNO’s hole-in-one statistics — and if my middle school math skills are up to par — Tiger, Phil, Tom & Peyton have a 1 in 260 chance of making a hole-in-one Sunday afternoon.
Tiger vs. Phil: Par 3s at The Medalist Golf Club
The golfers’ first chance at a highly-coveted ace comes on hole No. 4, with opportunities following on holes No. 8, 12 & 16. Here’s what those holes look like according to bluegolf.com.
Hole No. 4 – Par 3
Tiger/Phil: 190 yds
Brady/Manning: 158 yds
Hole No. 8 – Par 3
Tiger/Phil: 205 yds
Brady/Manning: 180 yds
Hole No. 12 – Par 3
Tiger/Phil: 205 yds
Brady/Manning: 157 yds
Hole No. 16 – Par 3
Tiger/Phil: 212 yds
Brady/Manning: 181 yds
If The Match does play to the yardages listed above, we won’t see many short irons on the par 3s at The Medalist. The course is no stranger to wind, which could make it even more difficult to place one close to the pin, especially for Brady and Manning.
For what it’s worth, Woods & Manning are -150 to win the most par 3 holes, with Mickelson and Brady +120 to do so at BetMGM.
Hole-In-One Golf Props at U.S. Sportsbooks
Now that we’ve looked at the par 3s and know that the golfers have a roughly 1-in-260 chance at recording an ace, do hole-in-one props at U.S. sportsbooks have any value?
No, not even close.
You can sign up at PointsBet or DraftKings Sportsbook to get +5000 (50-to-1) on a hole-in-one this Sunday. FOX Bet previously had the same prop listed at +10000 (100-to-1) but have at least temporarily suspended the option as of Friday morning.
And if you really want to be to tell your friends that you banked in the event of an exciting yet improbable hole-in-one from Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, I’m not one to judge. The story itself might be worth the -EV.
There are ways to get skin in the game that make more sense than the others, though.
Tiger vs. Phil Free Pick’em Pools
You’ll find multiple free-to-play pick’em pools for The Match across the industry. DraftKings has two free $50K pools, one for the entire match and a separate pool for the back-nine, both paying a top-prize of $5K to first place. Here’s screenshot with a few of the questions participants are asked to answer.
With thousands of contestants already entered, similar to large daily fantasy tournaments, you’ll need a unique sheet to win outright. How many entries will pick a hole-in-one?
FanDuel’s 10K Tiger-Peyton v. Phil-Brady Pick’em pays $1k in FanDuel bonus cash to the winner. Unlike DraftKings, FanDuel’s pick’em contest for The Match awards different points for different picks, akin to fantasy scoring, and is available to all FanDuel users even if you’re outside of states with legal sports wagering.
And again, one of the questions is whether there will be a hole-in-one. Picking ‘Yes’ at FanDuel awards 50 points and only 1 point if you pick ‘No.’
Considering how popular ‘No’ will be in spite of the difference in points, there might actually be value in picking ‘Yes’ as one of your contrarian picks. At the very least, it’s better than the 50-to-1 props you’ll find at most sportsbooks.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images