Titans vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Titans vs. Jaguars Odds
| Titans Odds | +6.5 |
| Jaguars Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 40 |
| Date | Sat, Jan. 7 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
NFL Saturday will conclude with a win-or-go-home AFC South matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Entering play, Tennessee is 7-9, trailing Jacksonville by one game in the division standings, but a win would secure a first place tie – and the Titans own the tiebreaker, which would send them to the postseason. Nevertheless, playing on the road without their starting quarterback has oddsmakers doubtful that Tennessee is capable of pulling off an upset, pricing Jacksonville as 6.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Titans
Points hard to come by
In four games this season in which Ryan Tannehill has not been Tennessee’s leading passer, the offense has scored 17, 17, 14, and 13 points, respectively. In Saturday’s pivotal matchup against Jacksonville, this group will once again be without Tannehill, in addition to missing center Ben Jones, and guard Nate Davis from the offensive line. Joshua Dobbs will earn his second consecutive start after completing 20-of-39 pass attempts for 232 passing yards in last Thursday’s loss against the Dallas Cowboys. In that game, Dobbs was 14-for-22 with a touchdown when kept clean, but only 6-for-17 with an interception when under pressure. Tonight, he will have to contend with a Jacksonville defense that ranks fourth in the NFL this fall in sacks per pass attempt. Expect this offense to struggle once again.
Defense lacking healthy bodies
During Tennessee’s six-game losing streak, they have been besieged by injuries on the defensive side of the ball. From Week 1 to Week 11, this unit ranked 12th in defensive EPA overall, 12th in dropback EPA, and second in rush EPA. Since Week 12, the Titans have regressed to 31st in defensive EPA overall, 32nd in dropback EPA, and 4th in rush EPA. Having already placed a substantial number of starters on injured reserve, Tennessee has listed linebacker Dylan Cole, cornerback Kristian Fulton, and safety Amani Hooker as questionable for Saturday. Hooker was the only member of the players who are listed as questionable who did not practice in any capacity on Thursday.
Key injury news
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center Ben Jones, safety Andrew Adams, guard Nate Davis, defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, cornerback Elijah Molden, linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham, and left tackle Taylor Lewan have all been placed on injured reserve for the Titans.
Since Jones and Davis last played on the offensive line in Week 15, Tennessee has scored 14 points and 13 points, respectively in two games.
Per Pro Football Focus, Adams graded as the 14th-best player in coverage at his position this season out of 87 eligible safeties. He played 68 snaps last Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Offense thriving under Lawrence
Since the beginning of November, Jacksonville is 6-2 and has ascended to the top spot in the AFC South division standings. During that time period, Trevor Lawrence has posted a sterling 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, leading this group to the 10th-best offensive EPA in the league in that span. The Jaguars have continued to struggle on the ground of late, ranking 26th in rush EPA across their last eight games, but their passing attack, coupled with an improved defense has been enough to get them into the win column on a regular basis during the latter portion of the regular season.
Defense improving
Since Week 9, the Jaguars’ defense ranks 16th in EPA overall, 23rd in dropback EPA, and 6th in rush EPA. On Saturday, the Titans will be starting a quarterback who has 56 career pass attempts and only one touchdown. Similar to their game plan from earlier in the year when Malik Willis was under center, Tennessee is likely to over-emphasize running back Derrick Henry in this matchup with their season on the line. If Jacksonville can contain Henry, it is extremely difficult to see the Titans being able to generate much offense in this spot.
Key Injury News
Edge rusher Dawuane Smoot was placed on injured reserve after Week 16. Smoot is second on the Jaguars in 2022 in sacks with five.
Titans vs. Jaguars – Picks & Predictions
Though the Tennessee Titans are decimated on both sides of the ball heading into this matchup, the game script is unlikely to allow the Jacksonville Jaguars to bludgeon them too bad on national television. Expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry on the ground and a few timely completions from Joshua Dobbs to extend at least a few Tennessee drives, which should also keep this game from becoming too high-scoring. On FanDuel, bettors can give the Titans a two-touchdown buffer and slightly inflate the total – a good value at -130 on Saturday.
PICK: Titans +14.5, Under 45.5 – SGP (-130, FanDuel)
Image Credit: Imagn