Primetime Parlay: Titans vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Through thousands of simulations using ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool we aim to create profitable same-game parlays across sports betting sites. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sportsbooks to find the best price for a fun primetime parlay sweat. Today, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the Titans vs Packers.
In an unusually interesting game for a Thursday night, the NFL offers a primetime contest at Lambeau Field between the Packers and the Titans. Green Bay finally found a win in comeback fashion against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. The Titans continued to plod along as they defeated the Denver Broncos in very Tennessee-like fashion. The Titans seem poised to run away with the South if they can win their divisional games while the Packers need a string of victories to keep marginal playoff hopes alive. Let’s preview the game and then build our same-game ticket.
Same Game Parlay for Titans vs. Packers
FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the Packers as three-point favorites this evening with a -120 price on the Packers. The implied game total is at 41 points at the time of this writing.
The Packers opened the week as -1.5 favorites but 62% of betting money has made the line move to the Green Bay side. Perhaps bettors wanted to take advantage of a short spread for a traveling Titans team or perhaps we saw a reaction from the Packers’ come-from-behind victory. 56% of betting tickets were placed on the Titans’ side of the number, but the price seems to suggest we could see -3.5 before we get below a field goal.
The weather will be pretty cold with a 10 MPH wind not helping matters. That said, cold temperatures do not suppress scoring that much. Running the football a lot, however, does.
For injuries, the Packers will likely welcome back Randall Cobb to a very thin receiving corps. Christian Watson emerged last weekend and will likely be featured early and often in the game but Cobb will add depth that Aaron Rodgers trusts to the offense. Conversely, Romeo Doubs is out again and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell remains sidelined. Campbell is a big loss for a defense that will be tasked with slowing down Derrick Henry this evening.
The Titans will start Ryan Tannehill who is officially off of the injury report. Josh Lambo was signed off of the practice squad to replace the injured Randy Bullock. Most importantly, Jeffery Simmons, the Titans’ best defender, is questionable on the defensive line. Simmons will be a critical loss, as the Titans will also be tasked with stopping their opponents’ run game.
Update 6:00 PM EST: Randall Cobb and Jeffery Simmons will play in tonight’s game.
Both teams might want to run the football a lot tonight. Unfortunately for the Packers, the Titans have been exceptionally good at slowing down opposing rushing attacks (3.9 YPA). Will Aaron Rodgers be forced to chuck the football around the yard to find victory? We are ready to punch our one-game parlay ticket. Let’s pick some props.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Titans & Packers Props
Derrick Henry Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
We open with the King. Derrick Henry is the engine that keeps the Titans moving forward. The style of football that coach Mike Vrabel loves might not be the most pleasant or exciting viewing experience, but Tennessee continues to move forward in a division filled with hapless football. The Titans will very likely lean on the King heavily tonight, as the Packers sit in the bottom five of opposing rushing yards per attempt.
That said, Henry has been more involved in the passing game this season than years before, often seeing a couple of target per contest (except the Kansas City game). In five of the Titans’ games, Henry has two or more targets. He eclipsed 11.5 receiving yards in four games. The Packers play the pass for running backs pretty well but the lack of De’Vondre Campbell makes me lean a bit towards Henry having one of his epic nights.
With the ParlayIQ simulations in mind (72%), we open our parlay with Henry’s receiving over.
Allen Lazard Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
Next, we roll with Green Bay’s closest thing to Mr. Reliable in Allen Lazard. Lazard took a backseat to Christian Watson in the upstart’s three-touchdown performance but should still see a high volume. If the Packers abandon the run game either due to a deficit or because of inefficiency, Lazard should only be targeted more.
Lazard was able to convert 3 of his four targets last weekend for 45 yards. Even with an emphasis on Watson, I would guess that Lazard should get closer to his usual 7-8 targets in this contest. He will not need any monster players to exceed this total, but we would welcome a long catch.
ParlayIQ and our projections are on board with this leg.
Christian Watson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
FanDuel continues to offer Watson at 39.5 yards at the time of this writing while he has already been bumped north of 41 and 42 yards on other sportsbooks. I am going to lock this in now while I can. Watson showed immense play-making ability, and while now healthy, seems like a big play waiting to happen. The big performance last weekend against the Cowboys should only elevate the always-discussed trust of his quarterback.
While we should not expect the same efficiency Watson had when catching the football last week, the big performance should earn him more looks. I don’t think another 6-8 targets is out of the question for the rookie if the Packers need to abandon the run and make big plays. I expect both receivers to see enough volume to exceed these totals.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown
Finally, a bit of a coin flip for a leg, we are going all in on the King with a touchdown. Henry has 23 rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line and 8 touchdowns. For the Titans to win this football game on the road, the game needs to be an ugly brand of football, and Mike Vrabel needs to lean on his big back.
Let’s hope Henry takes a swing pass long on the first drive for a touchdown to give us only Packers to sweat for the rest of the night. Good luck, everyone.
Titans vs. Packers Parlay Odds
- Derrick Henry Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
- Allen Lazard Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
- Christian Watson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON
ParlayIQ suggests that FanDuel should offer this price for our ticket:
Instead, FanDuel offers us this number:
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +873
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.36 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn