Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Prediction & Pick
Titans vs. Browns Odds
| Titans Odds | +3.5 |
| Browns Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 |
| Date | Sun, Sep. 24 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday afternoon, the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns will meet on the shores of Lake Erie, with both teams looking to get over the .500 mark. The Titans lost their season opener, but won a thriller in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. The Browns dominated the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 but lost a heart breaker this past Monday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Browns as 3.5-point favorites on the spread in this matchup. The total for this contest is set at over/under 38.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Titans
Will Ryan Tannehill hold up under pressure?
Through two weeks of the NFL season, only Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson have a worse passer rating than Ryan Tannehill when under pressure among qualified signal callers. When under duress, Tannehill has completed only 7-of-14 pass attempts for 81 passing yards. He has thrown two interceptions despite the small sample. Facing an aggressive Cleveland pass rush, Tannehill is going to be forced to get rid of the football quickly or else suffer a sack, which he has done eight times already this season.
Cleveland has been strong against the run so far this year, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, and they rank 9th in average pressure rate per week. It could be difficult for Tannehill and company to put points on the board in this contest.
What to expect from Tennessee defense
Defensive end Denico Autry is officially listed as questionable heading into the weekend. Autry practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, making his status worth monitoring throughout the weekend. Autry is third on the team in quarterback pressures and leads the Titans with three sacks through the first two weeks of the season. He is a skilled pass-rusher and a strong contributor in the run game. If he is unable to go on Sunday, it would be a significant blow for this defense.
Safety Amani Hooker was sensational in Tennessee’s season opener, recording two takeaways. He missed last weekend’s contest against the Chargers due to a concussion, but he does not carry an injury designation into Week 3 after logging a full practice yesterday. Cornerback Kristian Fulton also missed last week’s game due to injury but was a full participant at practice all week and is good to go against the Browns.
If this unit has Autry available against Cleveland, they figure to continue to make life extremely difficult for their opponent on the ground. Only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed fewer yards per carry in the rushing game. The main vulnerability of this group is the secondary unit, which has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt and the 11th-highest completion percentage of any team in the league through two weeks.
Cleveland Browns
What is going on with Deshaun Watson?
Deshaun Watson has continued to struggle against pressure during the early portion of the season. He has completed only 8-of-21 pass attempts under pressure and is averaging only 4.9 yards per attempt on those throws, per PFF. He ranks 24th in completion percentage, 19th in yards per attempt, and 19th in turnover-worthy play rate when under duress.
However, he has also struggled (relative to his peers) from a clean pocket, ranking 29th in completion percentage and 23rd in yards per attempt, though he has taken better care of the football in these situations. Simply, Watson has experienced difficulties with quick decisions, and his inability to throw with any amount of accuracy is stalling drives or resulting in interceptions.
On Sunday, he is likely to be under consistent pressure once again with Tennessee having multiple capable pass rushers. Cleveland is certainly hoping that their mega-million dollar quarterback starts earning his money sooner rather than later, but it seems unlikely that we see any significant growth from Watson in Week 3.
Jim Schwartz defense wreaking havoc on opponents early in the season
According to PFF, the Cleveland Browns pressured Joe Burrow on 30.4% of his dropbacks in Week 1. On Monday Night Football, the Cleveland defense pressured Kenny Pickett on 35.2% of his dropbacks. The Browns are one of only five defenses in the NFL to finish in the top half of the league in pressure rate both weeks so far this season.
The biggest vulnerability for this unit in Week 3 is their secondary unit, with cornerback Greg Newsome II having been ruled out due to an elbow injury. Newsome has been the team’s best coverage cornerback so far this fall, handling snaps out wide and in the slot. In his absence, Martin Emerson, a 2022 third-round draft pick out of Mississippi State, is slated for an expanded workload. Emerson performed adequately in coverage as a rookie but struggled mightily against the run and only played 10 snaps in the slot, per PFF.
Titans vs. Browns – Picks & Predictions
Both Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson have struggled when under pressure to begin 2023, which is likely to limit the number of deep pass attempts we see from these offenses on Sunday. These offenses may also struggle to move the chains in short-yardage situations due to the fact that both defenses enter Week 3 in the top-four in rushing yards allowed per carry.
Since 2018, 11.6% of NFL games have ended with exactly 39, 40, or 41 points being scored. Fanatics Sportsbook offers a strong price at the current default number of 38.5, but it may be worthwhile to split an investment on the alt-number, 41, available on DraftKings in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.
LEAN: Under 38.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Under 41 (-148, DraftKings Sportsbook)