Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Titans vs. Dolphins Odds
| Titans Odds | +14 |
| Dolphins Odds | -14 |
| Over/Under | 45.0 |
| Date | Mon, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 14 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a Monday Night Football double-header, with both games airing concurrently at 8:15 p.m. ET. One of those matchups features Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Entering play, Tennessee is winless in six road games and Miami is undefeated in five home contests at Hard Rock Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Dolphins as 14-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Titans
What to expect from Will Levis
Since Week 8, when Will Levis took over the reins at quarterback for the Titans, Tennessee’s offense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate. However, their path to those numbers has been far from linear.
In three home games during that stretch, the Titans have scored 28 points, 17 points, and 28 points. In three road games with Levis under center, Tennessee has scored 16 points, 6 points, and 14 points.
Overall, Levis has been exactly what a person would expect from a rookie signal caller – good at times, but rarely great, and prone to mistakes. Since Week 8, he ranks 21st out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 26th in success rate, though he does rank 2nd in air yards per attempt, which demonstrates a certain level of trust from the coaching staff in his capabilities.
On Monday, Levis is likely to struggle against a Miami defense that has generated pressure more consistently than any other team in the league since their bye week. Levis ranks 28th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and 33rd in completion under pressure since Week 8, giving him a low floor in this matchup.
Titans defense banged up ahead of kickoff
On Monday, the Titans will be without starting cornerback Kristian Fulton and starting defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. Fulton has not had his best season as a professional, but he has still played at least 45 snaps in each game since Week 3, making his absence noteworthy in this spot. Simmons is a much larger loss for this unit. Through 12 games this fall, Simmons has continued to prove his worth as one of the better overall defensive linemen in the NFL – ranking 35th out of 133 players at his position against the run and 23rd as a pass rusher, per PFF. Simmons is 2nd on the team with 5.5 sacks in 2023, leads the Titans in quarterback pressures, and is tied for the team lead in tackles-for-loss.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa not ready to give up on MVP case
Tua Tagovailoa enters play on Monday ranked 5th in passing yards, 4th in passing touchdowns, 7th in QBR, 3rd in EPA/play, and 4th in success rate in 2023. He has been a maestro in the pocket, outside of three games against opponents that were able to disrupt the rhythm and timing of the Miami passing attack – something that should not be an issue tonight against the Titans.
Though Tennessee has been able to post back-to-back weeks of respectable defensive pressure rates, they are unlikely to replicate that success again on Monday without defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons on the field. From Week 9 to Week 11, Tennessee posted three consecutive games with a bottom-five defensive pressure rate in the NFL.
If the Titans are unable to get pressure on Tagovailoa this evening, the Dolphins are likely to have a field day through the air against their secondary unit, which has allowed the 6th-most passing yards per attempt of any team in the league this fall.
Jalen Ramsey making his presence felt
The Dolphins defense has looked like a completely different unit since the arrival of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. From Week 1 to Week 7, with Ramsey still working his way back from injury, Miami’s defense ranked 23rd in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. Since Week 8, the Dolphins’ defense ranks 1st in EPA/play and 1st in success rate. Notably, Miami finished 3rd among all teams in defensive pressure rate in Week 13, playing their first game without edge defender Jaelan Phillips.
The primary concern for the Dolphins tonight, and for the next few weeks, will be how they handle the loss of linebacker Jerome Baker. Baker has been one of the league’s top coverage linebackers, ranking 25th out of 77 players at his position in coverage grade this year, per PFF. He was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.
Titans vs. Dolphins – Picks & Predictions
Miami has scored 35 points, 17 points, 21 points, 17 points, and 14 points in the first half of their five respective home games this season. Tonight, they get to face a Tennessee defense that is missing two defensive starters, including one of the better all-around defensive linemen in the NFL. The Dolphins have excelled this year against teams that are unable to get pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. This is a very playable line for the first half of tonight’s contest.
PICK: Dolphins Team Total OVER 14.5 Points – First Half (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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