Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Titans vs. Dolphins Odds
| Titans Odds | +2.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 37 |
| Date | Monday, September 30th |
| Time | 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
This evening, the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins will play the first of two Monday Night Football games. Entering play, the Titans are still in search of their first win of the season. Miami will be starting Tyler Huntley, their 3rd different starting quarterback in the team’s first 4 games.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 37 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee is scheduled to have 12 days off after tonight’s action, with a bye in Week 5. According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, teams with 12+ days of rest ahead of them, with their opponent not having the same such benefit, are 58% SU and 59% ATS since the beginning of 2016.
Tennessee Titans Preview
Time to be concerned about Levis?
Entering Week 4, Will Levis ranked 30th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. He’s been particularly poor late in games, with a league-worst EPA/play in the 2nd half of games in 2024 – and by a wide margin.
Levis has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s thrown an interception in each of the last 5 games in which he’s had more than 6 pass attempts. He also continues to take a lot of sacks, with those negative plays killing promising drives.
Tennessee defense shorthanded for Monday Night Football
This past week, the Titans lost starting CB Chidobe Awuzie to injured reserve. Awuzie played 41 snaps in Week 1 and 53 snaps in Week 2. He ranked 39th out of 99 players at his position in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), at the time of his injury. The secondary unit could be in even more trouble if either CB L’Jarius Sneed or S Amani Hooker are unable to suit up. Both Sneed and Hooker were limited at practice on Saturday and are expected to play, but an injury reaggravation for either player would leave Tennessee down half of their starters in the secondary.
A potentially even more damaging loss for this defense is DT Jeffery Simmons, who is officially listed as doubtful after not practicing on Saturday. Simmons has been one of the league’s best run defenders to begin 2024 and already has a sack this season as well.
Miami Dolphins Preview
What to expect from Huntley
Tyler Huntley had been Baltimore’s primary backup to Lamar Jackson early in his career, but he could earn his first extended opportunity as a starting quarterback with Tua Tagovailoa potentially facing a long absence. From 2021-2023, Huntley ranked 45th in EPA/play and 46th in success rate among 65 quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks.
Huntley is a dual-threat option, capable of making plays with his legs as well. He has 3 rushing touchdowns and 509 rushing yards since entering the league. However, he’s not someone who figures to take many deep shots downfield. His 7.2 aDOT from 2023 would rank 36th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks to begin 2024. Look for head coach Mike McDaniel to try to create yards-after-catch opportunities for his skill players in an effort to make life easier on Huntley.
Miami defense banged-up heading into Monday Night Football
Miami’s defense hasn’t been great to begin 2024, ranking 20th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate through 3 games. Tonight, they will be without starting CB Kendall Fuller and likely without LB David Long, who didn’t practice on Saturday and is officially listed as doubtful. Fuller played 41+ snaps in each of the team’s first 2 games and is currently ranked 32nd out of 99 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF. Long is Miami’s leading tackler and a notable loss in the middle of the field.
Titans vs. Dolphins Prediction
Tennessee isn’t off to a great start in 2024, but they have played much better in the 1st half of games than they have in the 2nd half. Through 3 weeks, the Titans’ offense ranked 17th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate in the 1st half of games, compared to 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate in the 2nd half. Expect Will Levis and company, eagerly searching for their first win of the season, to have a good game plan to begin tonight’s contest, which should lead to multiple scoring opportunities.
PICK: Titans OVER 7.5 Team Total, 1st Half (-102, DraftKings)
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