Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 19th
Fridays during the MLB season are pretty insane. You get 15 games regularly every Friday and most of them all at night, so there should be a ton of variance in lineups. You also get some of the best promotions in the industry as there are a ton of qualifiers and big tournaments running tonight.
Last night was terrible for me, as I had some good picks in my lineups but switched them out as I tinkered. This is why they call it daily fantasy though, as what happened last night is in the past and you make a whole new team today.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajai Davis | 0.742 | 0.35 | 0.266 | 1.01 | Pettitte – L | 1.2 | 0.333 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.853 | 0.238 | 0.396 | 1.05 | Saunders – L | 2.08 | 0.2 |
| Joe Mauer | 1.667 | 0.455 | 0.432 | 1.07 | Peavy – R | 3.93 | 0.364 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.988 | 0.414 | 0.397 | 1 | Hanson – R | 6.55 | 0.4 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.901 | 0.243 | 0.276 | 1.08 | Sanchez – R | 1.42 | 0.244 |
| Todd Helton | 1.523 | 0.286 | 0.325 | 1.21 | Kennedy – R | 5.79 | 0.226 |
| Brandon Crawford | 1.139 | 0.359 | 0.402 | 0.86 | Volquez – R | 11.68 | 0.314 |
| Chase Headley | 0.65 | 0.333 | 0.316 | 0.85 | Bumgarner – L | 1.77 | 0 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.449 | 0.143 | 0.14 | 0.92 | Hudson – R | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.433 | 0.294 | 0.303 | 1.21 | Chacin – R | 1.96 | 0.233 |
- Rajai Davis high BABIP and low wOBA worry me, but what he lacks in slugging power he makes up for in stolen bases. Pettitte isn’t the easiest to steal on, but Rajai is 7 for 12 lifetime off Pettitte and could swipe one today.
- Ian Kinsler should be breaking out of his funk against left handers soon, and a good spot would be today against Saunders. Kinsler has made it a habit of taking Saunders deep with 4 homers in 27 at bats with 1.3 OPS. He could very well do it again today in Arlington.
- Joe Mauer has been on an absolute tear lately, and has regained his batting champion form it appears. His price is still affordable on most sites and you can play him at catcher. Peavy has been good but I want to roll with Mauer while he is rolling and his price is low.
- Austin Jackson has been one of the most improved players year to year for the last 3 years and looks like he continues to improve his approach at the plate with every passing week. Hanson’s velocity is the lowest this year that it’s been in all of his years in the majors, which is probably the worst news you can hear for a pitcher.
- Josh Hamilton slow start has his salary a bit lower than you would usually see it, which is good news. This pick is more of a “if it’s not broke don’t fix it” idea, as Hamilton is 4/4 off Sanchez with 2 walks. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that going.
- Todd Helton has been crushing the ball lately, and getting some use out of those old arms. He is in Coors field again where Colorado just put up an 11 spot and hits near the middle of the order, and is cheap.
- Brandon Crawford looks like a completely different hitter right now. He is by far San Francisco’s best masher which is weird to think about. Each game I think Crawford can’t continue to crush and he proves me wrong, so I am going to start rolling with him if he isn’t too expensive.
- I cannot believe that I recommended 2 people hitting at AT&T park. I would really only consider taking 2 people max since it is so hard to hit in, but I think Headley has a good shot at having a nice game. Most of the Padres have good splits against Bumgarner and are used to playing small ball so there should be some opportunities to knock some runs in for Headley. Plus, he just came back from injury so his salary may be discounted.
- I guess this is the day of value plays, as I whip out Alvarez at PNC park. I noticed Alvarez’ salary was like 2.5k on Draftstreet, which is super low for a guy with 2 HR potential. Sure, he strikes out a lot and can get you a -.75 but if he does get a 2 homer game, think of all that salary that can be used on pitchers. Alvarez did homer yesterday, so maybe he’s heating up?
- Miguel Montero is going to blast one pretty soon and I think it will be tonight. He should love hitting in Coors field, and against Chacin. The Diamondbacks could put up a bunch of runs and Montero will be in the middle.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lind | 0.871 | 0.235 | 0.269 | 1.05 | Pettitte – L | 1.2 | 0.222 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.507 | 0.302 | 0.328 | 1.1 | Darvish – R | 2.75 | 0.286 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.536 | 0.286 | 0.396 | 1.05 | Peavy – R | 3.93 | 0.25 |
| John Buck | 0.643 | 0.243 | 0.439 | 0.92 | Strasburg – R | 2.95 | 0.333 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.687 | 0.318 | 0.341 | 0.92 | Harvey – R | 0.82 | 0.283 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.681 | 0.286 | 0.335 | 0.85 | Volquez – R | 11.68 | 0.285 |
| Allen Craig | 0.553 | 0.268 | 0.253 | 0.99 | Halladay – R | 7.63 | 0.195 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.811 | 0.31 | 0.271 | 0.97 | Garcia – L | 1.86 | 0.067 |
| Derek Norris | 1.305 | 0.476 | 0.456 | 0.91 | Cobb – R | 1.93 | 0.385 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.521 | 0.333 | 0.352 | 1.09 | Shields – R | 3.43 | 0.233 |
- It appears as if the Blue Jays are trying to keep Adam Lind away from left handers, probably because they know he is garbage against them. He is 3 for 21 off Pettitte in his career and should not be used today.
- Kendrys Morales has had no success in his career against Darvish, going 1 for 15 with 8 strikeouts. Darvish really seems to have his number and he has been struggling lately, not a spot I want to take someone in.
- Josh Willingham struggles against right handers, and he is against a pretty good one today in Peavy. Willingham is 0 for 15 in his career against Peavy, so don’t be surprised if he gets blanked.
- John Buck has had a nice start to the season, and his price inflated. The problem was, that his super power stage was frankly unsustainable and he is starting to come back to earth. Here he faces Strasburg who has struck him out 5 times in 9 appearances. This is not a good spot for him.
- I like the Nationals offense as much as the next guy, but this game has the markings of a pitchers duel. Jayson Werth looks to me like a pass today as he has been struggling a bit lately and has to face the red hot Harvey who will be able to get Werth on strikes.
- If you use BVP a lot in your research, you have to check out the numbers Pence has against Volquez. He is 3 for 24 with 12 strikeouts, good for a .542 OPS which is pretty bad for a 24 AB sample. Pence hasn’t exactly been the hottest hitter either recently, so in a hard park to hit in I think this is a pass.
- Allen Craig has really struggled this year, especially against right handers. He still hasn’t homered yet and has a sub-.600 ops with over 50 at bats. He will get it going sometime, but I don’t like this spot for him.
- Another guy who has been completely useless against his same handed counterpart, Ryan Howard faces Jaime Garcia who has been really good this year. He is 2 for 12 off Garcia in the past and it could get ugly for Howard here.
- Derek Norris has really been productive so far for Oakland, but he just left a game after getting hit in the mask. Make sure you check his status, or just ignore him as his matchup isn’t too good against Cobb at Tropicana.