Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 22nd
Monday’s in baseball don’t usually bring a full slate, but today we have a nice 13 game slate, with all of the games being played at night. We have some pretty suspect pitchers going today, so some nice matchups to exploit in your games.
As we get farther into the MLB season, we start getting more data to use for the season, and the salaries start getting sharper on each sites so value is progressively getting harder to find. We will look at some good matchups and I will try to at least put a couple of potential value plays in the article each day.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.99 | 0.317 | 0.373 | 0.91 | Sabathia – L | 2.57 | 0.231 |
| Justin Upton | 1.027 | 0.297 | 0.483 | 1.18 | Francis – L | 8.25 | 0.238 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.325 | 0.477 | 0.454 | 1.18 | Francis – L | 8.25 | 0.45 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.965 | 0.36 | 0.414 | 0.97 | Marquis – R | 2.41 | 0.306 |
| Buster Posey | 0.782 | 0.279 | 0.302 | 0.85 | Miley – L | 2.79 | 0.25 |
| Todd Frazier | 0.863 | 0.317 | 0.397 | 0.97 | Wood – L | 1.83 | 0.238 |
| Joe Mauer | 1.75 | 0.458 | 0.438 | 1.02 | Nolasco – R | 3.86 | 0.383 |
| Jason Giambi | 0.903 | 0.083 | 0.377 | 1.07 | Axelrod – R | 4.7 | 0.143 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.822 | 0.4 | 0.498 | 1.07 | Axelrod – R | 4.7 | 0.391 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.567 | 0.184 | 0.277 | 1.05 | Happ – L | 5.06 | 0.35 |
- Evan Longoria numbers against Sabathia are pretty sick considering how good Sabathia has been for a long time. Longoria is 14 for 39 against Sabathia with 10 walks and 5 homers, and he’s been hitting well lately. He is the premier option at 3rd today.
- Justin Upton has a dream matchup today, against Francis at Coors Field. I am not sure if you could ask for much more. There will probably be a lot of Braves players used, and it seems like a good idea to me with Upton at the forefront of the best options.
- Chris Johnson is hitting a bit above his head right now as evidenced by his .477 BABIP, but if you see a hot hitter in Coors against a bad pitcher it is best to ride him to victory. Johnson is seeing it well right now and is in the middle of a stacked lineup. He should also be pretty cheap everywhere.
- Ryan Braun is another guy with a pretty absurd BVP in that he has 11 hits off 22 at bats against Jason Marquis. Marquis has been oddly effective this year, but I don’t suspect that to continue, and Braun should be able to put together some solid at bats in this game.
- Buster Posey, as everyone knows, is much better against left handers than right handers, and posts insane numbers against left handers no matter where he bats. He got his first home run off lefty Stults and now gets lefty Miley and is looking to continue hitting it out of the park.
- Todd Frazier gets a nice matchup here against Travis Wood in Great American Ballpark. Wood has been solid this year but is another pitcher who may not be able to keep up his success. Frazier also has success in a limited sample against Wood going 4 for 5 with a home run.
- Joe Mauer is completely locked in at this point posting an insane 1.75 OPS in his last 14 at bats. He gets to face off against bad Nolasco today and he should be able to keep his insane start to the season going.
- Jason Giambi is so old that I was 7 when he joined MLB, so it is pretty insane that at 42 he can appear on this list. He is a pretty cheap option that can give you the power upside of a home run. His BABIP of .083 is super low and he is still managing to hold up a .377 wOBA even with none of his hit balls falling for hits.
- I am a huge fan of Carlos Santana here as he has been one of the best fantasy catchers so far this year. He has been on a tear to start the season and his wOBA of .498 is one of the best in the majors. His walk rate is stellar and has a nice matchup in US Cellular against Axelrod.
- Hardy is my off the wall pick for the day and I think he is starting up a hot streak with the bat. When he is hitting well, he is a useful fantasy shortstop, but when he’s cold he is pretty bad. He has only struck out twice in the last 7 days so it appears as if he’s making contact, now he just needs the balls to start falling in or flying out of the park.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.759 | 0.34 | 0.354 | 1.05 | Masterson – R | 1.67 | 0.321 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 0.244 | 0.18 | 0.144 | 1.05 | Masterson – R | 1.67 | 0.153 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.688 | 0.238 | 0.262 | 0.91 | Holland – L | 1.64 | 0.056 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1.169 | 0.367 | 0.316 | 0.97 | Leake – R | 4.26 | 0.234 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.417 | 0.278 | 0.284 | 0.97 | Burnett – R | 2.63 | 0.226 |
| Michael Young | 0.56 | 0.408 | 0.358 | 0.99 | Burnett – R | 2.63 | 0.36 |
| Rickie Weeks | 0.467 | 0.289 | 0.266 | 0.97 | Marquis – R | 2.41 | 0.17 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.61 | 0.263 | 0.334 | 0.85 | Miley – L | 2.79 | 0.308 |
| Martin Prado | 0.442 | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.85 | Vogelsong – R | 1.96 | 0.245 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.57 | 0.239 | 0.206 | 0.86 | Miley – L | 2.79 | 0.167 |
- Alexei Ramirez doesn’t bring much power to the table, and today is against Masterson who has been good so far this year. Ramirez is 7 for 40 with a .489 OPS off of Masterson for his career, so I wouldn’t expect anything big out of him today.
- Jeff Keppinger has bad splits in a small sample against Masterson as well (0 for 7 with 2 KO), and has been absolutely awful at the plate recently (.244 OPS!). It should be noted that Masterson makes right handers struggle due to his weird arm slot so I would avoid all of the Chicago righties today.
- Josh Hamilton splits against left handers this year are absolutely gruesome as he is hitting at a .056 clip. Bring Holland into Angel Stadium and I wouldn’t trust that to change much today. If your site subtracts for punchouts, he should be avoided at all costs today.
- Alfonso Soriano has been useful in the last few games, but he matches up against Leake today, who he has had no previous success off of (2 for 18). With a non-intimidating lineup around him, I don’t want him on my team.
- Jimmy Rollins has cooled after a solid start to the season, and has posted a meager .417 OPS in his last few games. I don’t like his chances to change that against Burnett who just got done pitching a gem. Rollins in addition is 11 for 46 with 14 strikeouts off of Burnett in his career.
- Michael Young also has a bad BVP off Burnett, 9 for 36 with a .631 combined OPS. With Burnett looking as solid as he did last game, I am going to forgo Phillies here for some better matchups.
- After looking like he was going to get off to a scorching start, Rickie Weeks has completely cooled posting a .467 OPS in the last week. He is garbage right now against right handers, and I wouldn’t trust him against Marquis who has been pretty good so far this season.
- Pablo Sandoval hasn’t been doing too good lately, and now has to face Wade Miley at AT&T. He is 1 for 9 off of him in a small career sample and doesn’t look like too high of an upside option today.
- If it wasn’t for a recent home run, Martin Prado OPS in the last 7 games would be in the .200 range. He has been ice cold, and now gets a good pitcher in the most pitcher friendly park. There are much better options out there today.
- Brandon Belt makes for one of the worst 1B options on any given day, but especially today. He is playing in AT&T and has been terrible at the plate recently. Belt just doesn’t bring enough to the table to make him a viable option at 1st.