Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 5th
There are numerous games in the daytime today and most sites are dual offering baseball, starting at 1:05 for the day games and starting at 7:05 for the night games. Make sure to get those lineups in when the boss isn’t looking so you can keep checking to see how many strikeouts your starting pitcher is throwing.
All stats are still from last year’s numbers, and the 2 pitchers who have no real major league stats have stats from their minor league starts last year, so adjust as needed. Make sure to check starting lineups before just plugging these guys in as some may get rest (hopefully not this year), and watch out for Michael Morse bombs, as they are coming to a city near you.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.881 | 0.352 | 0.374 | 1.21 | Marquis – R | 5.22 | 0.325 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.814 | 0.353 | 0.359 | 1.08 | Haren – R | 4.33 | 0.359 |
| Allen Craig | 0.856 | 0.334 | 0.374 | 0.85 | Zito – L | 4.15 | 0.354 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.749 | 0.27 | 0.327 | 1.05 | Vargas – L | 3.85 | 0.35 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.836 | 0.39 | 0.375 | 1.21 | Marquis – R | 5.22 | 0.293 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.891 | 0.252 | 0.378 | 1.18 | Francis – L | 5.58 | 0.329 |
| Brandon Moss | 0.954 | 0.359 | 0.402 | 0.94 | Peacock – R | 3.24 | 0.293 |
| Chris Davis | 0.827 | 0.335 | 0.352 | 1.04 | Hendriks – R | 5.59 | 0.271 |
| Ike Davis | 0.801 | 0.247 | 0.331 | 0.97 | Sanabia – R | 5.14 | 0.253 |
| Jed Lowrie | 0.759 | 0.257 | 0.336 | 0.94 | Peacock – R | 3.24 | 0.265 |
- I don’t know what is not to like about Carlos Gonzalez in this game. The over/under is set at 11, he is facing a bad right hander in Marquis in Coors field, and he has had a pretty strong start so far. He will be owned in a ton of lineups, and I don’t think this is the time to fade him.
- Shin-Soo Choo appears to like hitting at Great American Ballpark, as his only poor game so far has came against a left hander. He is against Haren in this game and leading off a high powered offense in a lefty-friendly park. I am going to keep rolling with him here.
- Allen Craig is here because he absolutely owns Zito in his career; Craig is 4 for 10 with 3 homers off the lefty. The one concern is that he is playing in AT&T park, but if he is really seeing the ball well out of Zito’s hand that shouldn’t matter much.
- I really like Ian Kinsler in this situation today, he has been hitting the ball well and not getting any results, and faces a pitcher he has hit decently in his career in Vargas. Texas is finally back at Rangers Ballpark and will be putting up some runs.
- Dexter Fowler should also have a nice game in Coors as he faces Marquis who should be ready to throw some batting practice. Fowler has struggled a bit out of the gate but with a high scoring game like this, he will be one of the guys you want to have from Colorado today.
- Carlos Quentin hits lefties much better than righties, and in score-fest Coors field gets to face off against Jeff Francis. Is there any way that Francis should be making $1.5 million per year? There has to be a better option out there somewhere. There is going to be value to be found on San Diego today, and I think Quentin breaks out of his bad BVP slump vs Francis (5-22)
- Brandon Moss gets to hit against Brad Peacock getting another shot at the majors with Houston. He hasn’t been great in the minors and instead of him being a huge prospect this is more of a lack of pitchers in Houston. Moss has really been struggling, and should be dirt cheap on sites that change salaries frequently. I think Moss breaks out of his slump with a dinger here.
- Chris Davis is absolutely unconscious right now. He’s hit a homer in the last 3 games and gets another cupcake matchup with Liam Hendriks. Unless his price has skyrocketed, I can’t see myself leaving him off a roster today as he is arguably the hottest hitter in the game in a high over/under game at home.
- Ike Davis gets Alex Sanabia of the Marlins today who hasn’t done very well in Spring Training (Pitcher ERA is from ST). Davis has been frustrating me so far in this short year, but here is the spot where he actually pays off.
- Jed Lowrie gets to play former team in this game, and not only that, he is the beneficiary of hitting against Peacock. Lowrie has had a really nice start to the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue it here.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ethier | 0.812 | 0.333 | 0.35 | 0.95 | Sanchez – L | 9.53 | 0.222 |
| David Murphy | 0.859 | 0.333 | 0.369 | 1.1 | Vargas – L | 3.85 | 0.347 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 0.745 | 0.268 | 0.328 | 1.01 | Fister – R | 3.45 | 0.22 |
| Gaby Sanchez | 0.62 | 0.245 | 0.272 | 0.91 | Greinke – R | 3.44 | 0.207 |
| Marco Scutaro | 0.759 | 0.319 | 0.329 | 0.85 | Westbrook – R | 3.97 | 0.309 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.714 | 0.291 | 0.315 | 0.87 | Moore – L | 3.81 | 0.215 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.805 | 0.31 | 0.349 | 1 | Minor – L | 4.12 | 0.208 |
| BJ Upton | 0.752 | 0.294 | 0.323 | 0.92 | Feldman – R | 3.1 | 0.249 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.969 | 0.344 | 0.405 | 0.92 | Hefner – R | 5.09 | 0.285 |
| Adam Lind | 0.789 | 0.282 | 0.316 | 0.91 | Doubront – L | 4.86 | 0.202 |
- You may look at this and wonder why Andre Ethier is here because of Sanchez’ ERA. It is high, but Sanchez only pitched 3 games for Colorado last year. Ethier traditionally struggles against left handers, last year hitting at a clip of .222. Ethier’s BVP is also bad against Sanchez sporting a .133 BA and a .395 OPS in 30 PA.
- David Murphy had a crazy year last year hitting lefties at an insane rate. This however, was only for 53 plate appearances, and he still didn’t homer. For his career he his .266 against lefties and has only 1 hit in 16 appearances against Vargas. There may be a few Texas stacks in play today, and Murphy looks like the guy you should leave off.
- Kevin Youkilis doesn’t hit right handers well at all, and Fister is a pretty good right hander. Nothing seems to be working in Youkilis’ favor here as the Yankee’s lineup is not exactly instilling fear in opponents at this time.
- Gaby Sanchez just doesn’t bring much to the table when he is hitting against right handers. Not only that, but he is facing Greinke in a game which should be low scoring. I don’t really like any Pirates in this game.
- Marco Scutaro has finally found a home in San Francisco, but this matchup isn’t what I am looking for when picking daily fantasy baseball players. He is in the hardest right handed park to hit in and going against a serviceable starter in Westbrook whom he has struggled in the past with (4 for 16 with a sub .600 OPS). I wouldn’t expect much power from him, if he does anything.
- Jason Kipnis is one of the better 2nd basemen out there, but today he looks like a bad play. Kipnis struggles against left handers, and is in a park which is the 2nd hardest to hit in along with facing a pretty solid lefty in Moore.
- I believe Anthony Rizzo is due for a solid fantasy season, but this is not the place to use him. He is pretty terrible against southpaws and gets to face the back end of the Atlanta rotation in Minor, who is actually pretty solid. The Cubs will struggle to score, so Rizzo looks risky.
- Upton scares me to pick him to have a bad game because last year he would do the opposite of what I thought. Upton has been really struggling even in the Braves lineup and now has to face Feldman who has struck him out 4 times in 11 at bats. I don’t think this is where BJ gets it going.
- How long until Giancarlo Stanton is gone from Miami? I would bet sooner than later. Stanton put up some huge numbers for the Marlins last year, but this year is completely different. Who is going to throw Giancarlo anything to hit when he has Polanco hitting after him? I am expecting a huge regression in his stats, and he has also started off slow. There are better options out there today.
- I am not sure what Adam Lind did to lose the weight in the offseason, but it appears to have made him completely useless. He now goes up against another left hander who he couldn’t hit last year (0-6 vs Doubront) in addition to his inability to hit lefties, and his ice cold start. Brrrrrr, I’m starting to shiver.