Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 12th
We are smack dab in the middle of the dog days of DFS. I am sure you have heard about the dog days of summer, but the dog days of DFS are actually much worse. It is the time after the major baseball events, so there are no qualifiers to chase, and before football starts so you have to sit through big announcements like the DraftKings $1 Millon Kickoff Bash. There is still baseball to be played, but people’s interests may have waned, so lets try to take advantage of that with some good matchups.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.397 | 0.27 | 0.314 | 1.02 | Richards – R | 4.2 | 0.25 |
| Justin Upton | 1.243 | 0.318 | 0.362 | 0.92 | Hamels – L | 3.81 | 0.277 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.053 | 0.296 | 0.325 | 0.91 | Sale – L | 2.77 | 0.26 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.39 | 0.295 | 0.351 | 0.94 | Davis – R | 5.42 | 0.232 |
| Eric Hosmer | 1.073 | 0.324 | 0.34 | 1 | Koehler – R | 4.4 | 0.28 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.349 | 0.322 | 0.402 | 1.09 | Volquez – R | 5.44 | 0.312 |
| Will Venable | 1.062 | 0.287 | 0.33 | 0.98 | Chacin – R | 3.3 | 0.242 |
| Todd Frazier | 0.544 | 0.285 | 0.314 | 1.01 | Wood – L | 3.04 | 0.237 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.907 | 0.293 | 0.365 | 1.02 | Richards – R | 4.2 | 0.304 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.643 | 0.34 | 0.328 | 0.98 | Volquez – R | 5.44 | 0.3 |
- Some pretty bad numbers at the beginning of Curtis Granderson season have caused his salary to dip to usable levels on all sites. Granderson is a boom or bust kind of guy, and he should be able to get some value against a guy like Richards who he has taken deep twice in 3 at bats. The Yankees may be getting some momentum with their wins against the Tigers, so look for this offense to perk up.
- It appears that Justin Upton expects that he is going to be in the lineup against the Phillies, so that’s why he is here. Hamels has been pretty good against everyone, but has allowed 13 homers to right handed batters. Upton is pretty matchup proof and has really been killing lefties silently this year with a good HR rate and a 1.020 OPS. Think about using him if you can afford him.
- Victor Martinez makes a solid play against Sale tonight that not many may use. In the last 3 years, Martinez has hit left handers for a .356 OPS and 1.001 OPS with as many homers as against right handers with less than half the ABs. He also has some good numbers against Sale, with 7 hits in 12 at bats. If Sale has a weakness, it is against the Tigers and the plethora of right handed batters they throw at him.
- Giancarlo Stanton has really been struggling lately, but I still like him today against Davis. His salary has dipped a bit so you can get him at a bargain, and Davis has been basically terrible this year. He has posted some good starts, but most of his season has been littered with short outings and many earned runs. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Stanton puts something on the board today.
- Can Eric Hosmer finally be playing up to his hype? It is possible, as he has been one of the best hitters in the game in the last month and a half. He is still underpriced as I do not see this hot streak stopping any time soon with his new hitting coach. When Koehler is bad, he is very bad and can give up some pretty big games. Hosmer is a nice midrange option that is a very safe play right now.
- Edinson Volquez on the road in Coors field has to be a fantasy player’s dream. While Volquez is not good anywhere, he is worse on the road, and especially bad against Colorado. In 4 games this year against the Rockies he has a 12.18 ERA and has given up a .410 average with only 9 strikeouts in 17 innings. I am going to target all Colorado players tonight against him including Troy Tulowitzki who has been hitting right handers very well this year.
- Did Everth Cabrera give his steroids to Will Venable for the leadoff spot? It kind of looks like it as Venable has absolutely been destroying it lately with an 8 game hit streak, 3 homers in that span, and aside from the 4 strikeout game yesterday, has been solid all around. He plays in Coors tonight against Chacin, who if he has any weakness, it is against lefties at home.
- Todd Frazier has been downright poor recently, but he gets a couple of things to try to turn it around. He faces Travis Wood who has been knocked around a bit recently, and who has given up 9 of his 11 homers to right handed batters, not to mention Frazier who is 6 for 12 off Wood with 2 homers. Frazier also gets to play in Wrigley tonight which has been pretty extra base hit friendly this year.
- Finally it looks like Robinson Cano might be getting it back to where he is producing, with Soriano, Granderson, and Rodriguez hitting around him. The Yankees are still a bit of a mess but this is a mental help to Cano who should be solid value from here til the end of the season as he tries to drag his team to the playoffs. He faces Richards today who he should be able to abuse and use to plop one over the short porch.
- Corey Dickerson could be a fun value play tonight for the Rockies, as mentioned above, Volquez is bad on the road and bad in Coors and bad against the Rockies. Dickerson for some reason has been batting 3rd in the absence of Gonzalez against right handers, so that is a possibility tonight. He also has some decent pop against righties and should be almost min salary everywhere. If he is batting tonight I am certainly going to use him.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.578 | 0.331 | 0.382 | 1.04 | Wood – L | 3.04 | 0.179 |
| Austin Jackson | 1.192 | 0.337 | 0.337 | 0.91 | Sale – L | 2.77 | 0.192 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.564 | 0.272 | 0.332 | 0.98 | Salazar – R | 3.29 | 0.218 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.57 | 0.288 | 0.302 | 0.98 | Albers – L | 0 | 0.235 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.306 | 0.229 | 0.312 | 0.92 | Hamels – L | 3.81 | 0.172 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.345 | 0.272 | 0.325 | 0.94 | Kuroda – R | 2.45 | 0.237 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.732 | 0.285 | 0.278 | 0.92 | Teheran – R | 2.96 | 0.223 |
| Chris Davis | 1.167 | 0.356 | 0.436 | 0.99 | Miley – L | 3.56 | 0.245 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1.114 | 0.475 | 0.443 | 0.93 | Mejia – R | 1.96 | 0.373 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.743 | 0.261 | 0.293 | 0.91 | Fister – R | 3.5 | 0.218 |
- I really wonder if it would be beneficial to the Reds if they could find a lefty specialist to platoon with Shin-Soo Choo. Choo just cannot hit left handers, posting his .532 OPS against them with 0 homers. There has to be a serviceable replacement in the minors or on waivers who is just as good defensively. Travis Wood has not allowed lefties to do anything this year, so Choo’s upside looks extremely small today.
- Austin Jackson is really hot right now and could be a popular pick tonight as a right/left matchup against Sale, however I would advise against it. Jackson has always been better at hitting righties than lefties and his .192 average and .653 OPS this year prove that. Jackson has had no success either against Sale going 2 for 19 with 8 strikeouts. This is a bad spot for him today.
- Josh Willingham is back off the DL and has had one good game in 4 back since returning. Tonight he faces the hard throwing Danny Salazar who was very impressive in his start against the Tigers even with the 4 ER he gave up, as he made a mistake to Jackson and Cabrera that really killed him. The Twins do not have a Miguel Cabrera, and Willingham should be primed to strike out against the hard throwing righty.
- I am a lot less sold on Andrew Albers as a good pitcher compared with Salazar, however Asdrubal Cabrera gives me no faith that he can actually hit Albers. Cabrera has been awful in the last week, with his .570 OPS, and cannot hit left handers very well at all with a .235 avg and .625 OPS. There are other shortstop options with more upside tonight.
- I would like to take the time to point out how remarkable it is what the Braves are doing with a batting dud like Dan Uggla in their lineup. Sure, he homers once in a while but when he doesn’t he is almost an auto out with a good chance of a strikeout. He has been terrible recently and has actually dropped his average to .187, and cannot hit left handers. Uggla is 9 for 56 with 18 strikeouts against Hamels which is good for a .585 OPS which is actually worse than his season average.
- Mark Trumbo is another boom or bust guy like Uggla, and he is lost at the plate right now as well. Trumbo has been bad here in August, and Kuroda has been great all year posting one of the lowest WHIPs in the majors. Kuroda has only let right handers homer 4 times this year and have a .545 OPS against him, so I would look elsewhere for production than Mark Trumbo.
- Usually I am a big proponent of Carlos Ruiz right now because he is so criminally underpriced almost everywhere, however this would be the time where I would recommend avoiding him. He is good against lefties but not against righties and Teheran is pretty good at holding down right handers. If you want to stack against Teheran, there are multiple other players on the Phillies that hit right handers better than Ruiz and would provide better value.
- To get the most value out of Chris Davis’ salary, he needs to be used against a right handed pitcher. Miley is not a right handed pitcher and has been really good in the last couple of months. Miley has not allowed many homers to left handers this year and although Davis has power against anyone, I would rather use him against a righty instead of a lefty who is pitching well.
- Here we have 2 of the best prospects in the game facing off with Yasiel Puig against Jenrry Mejia. Puig has to be a popular choice due to his solid last week or so and the fact that he is increasing his walk rate. I would exercise caution with Puig and only use him in very good matchups because of his .475 BABIP which is a completely unsustainable number. Eventually those balls will start getting fielded and he will have a big slump. Mejia has the tools to limit Puig, so I would rather use my salary somewhere else.
- We have a guy in Paul Konerko today who seems to have everything going against him. Paulie has to face Fister who has been really good in the last 5 games with really good control, which is when he pitches his best. Konerko is really struggling against right handers this year and has a career mark of 4 for 23 off of Doug. I am just not a big fan of any of the White Sox today.