Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 28th
Last night we looked at low dollar options who could allow you to get the top salary guys like Trout and Kershaw, and tonight I will look at some of the top salary guy who have great matchups. It may be a good night to skimp a bit on pitching as a couple of these guys are as close to a lock as you can come in baseball.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 0.686 | 0.337 | 0.336 | 1.07 | Lackey – R | 3.17 | 0.299 |
| Stephen Drew | 0.824 | 0.315 | 0.329 | 1.05 | Norris – R | 4.22 | 0.273 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.067 | 0.307 | 0.384 | 0.96 | Alvarez – R | 3.86 | 0.314 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.038 | 0.356 | 0.389 | 0.91 | Gorzelanny – L | 3.6 | 0.373 |
| Coco Crisp | 1.5 | 0.261 | 0.328 | 0.99 | Fister – R | 3.54 | 0.281 |
| Chase Utley | 0.605 | 0.284 | 0.353 | 0.89 | Matsuzaka – R | 9 | 0.295 |
| Matt Holliday | 1.26 | 0.307 | 0.368 | 0.91 | Bailey – R | 3.71 | 0.285 |
| Buster Posey | 0.885 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 1.09 | Chacin – R | 3.22 | 0.294 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.05 | 0.336 | 0.405 | 0.99 | Erlin – L | 7.15 | 0.315 |
| Alex Gordon | 1.073 | 0.317 | 0.327 | 1.02 | Albers – L | 3 | 0.319 |
- I am a big fan of Manny Machado today even with his recent struggles. Machado has hit right handers very well this year with a .776 OPS and Lackey has allowed 12 homers to right handers with a .793 OPS. He has pitched better in Fenway Park, however the Orioles are really potent against right handed pitching.
- Bud Norris in Fenway does not bode too well, especially after the Red Sox put up a bunch of runs last night. Norris is terrible away with a 5.33 OPS and terrible against left handers with a .891 OPS. Shortstop is a hard position, but I like Stephen Drew tonight as he has been hitting solid lately. Drew does all of his damage against righties and has hit well at Fenway this year.
- I like Bryce Harper to have a nice game tonight against Alvarez in Nationals park, as Harper has been playing well recently with a 1.069 OPS in the last week and he is facing a right hander who is the only option to use him against. Alvarez has been getting worse and worse, giving up 5 ER his last time out and struggles against lefties giving up a .840 OPS to them.
- Andrew McCutchen numbers are just absurd this year and I do not see many people talking about him. He has a 1.120 OPS against left handed pitchers which is elite and a 1.102 OPS in August so his red hot last week has actually been a step down. McCutchen loves hitting in PNC and against a left handed pitcher, how can you go wrong here.
- Coco Crisp power comes in bunches, and it looks like he is on one of those tears right now. Most likely you will have to pay for him but I like him today against Fister who has been solid, but not dominant this year. Crisp has 6 hits in 12 at bats against Fister so the history is there. The A’s hitting has put a hurting on Tigers pitching this series, and I would not be surprised to see it happen again.
- Dice-K gets another start tonight, and allowed 5 ER in 5 innings last time out. This time he gets a much easier offense to pitch against, but the Phillies still have some power lefties that will cause problems, one of them being Chase Utley. Utley has not been doing well but I am sure he is salivating at the chance to hit Dice-K. Utley has an .866 OPS against right handers and has actually hit better away from home.
- I have been frustrated with Matt Holliday recently as it seems that I am getting him on the wrong days. I think the stars line up for him today though against Bailey as Holliday has crushed him in the past going 12 for 30 with 2 homers and a 1.221 OPS. Holliday is hot right now and most of his homers are coming off right handed pitchers. You never know what you will get from Bailey and I am looking at Holliday to drive in some runs today.
- Buster Posey should be back in the lineup tonight and rested at Coors Field. He should be extremely cheap on a site like Draftstreet for his talent ability, and with Chacin bein naturally worse at Coors, we could be in for a solid game tonight.
- I love Paul Goldschmidt tonight, and if you can afford him I would plug him in. Goldy is a bonafide star and is producing each and every night. He gets a particularly tantilizing matchup tonight against Erlin the left hander in Chase Field, and if you do not know by now, Goldy destroys bad left handers.
- Look who is heating up, Alex Gordon. He has had a really nice last week, and has a great chance to continue that tonight as a sneaky lefty/lefty play. Gordon is hitting lefties much better than right handers this year and has a .899 OPS against them. Albers has came back to earth allowing 5 ER in his last 2 starts after 2 impressive outings. His 5 ER outings are most of his real talent so the Royals could have a solid game tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Upton | 0.417 | 0.315 | 0.361 | 0.91 | Masterson – R | 3.5 | 0.256 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 1.342 | 0.297 | 0.351 | 0.91 | Morton – R | 3.42 | 0.274 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.774 | 0.283 | 0.329 | 1.08 | Kuroda – R | 2.71 | 0.281 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.862 | 0.287 | 0.337 | 1.08 | Redmond – R | 4.44 | 0.243 |
| Jason Castro | 2.182 | 0.353 | 0.369 | 1.01 | Sale – L | 3.08 | 0.226 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.625 | 0.261 | 0.293 | 0.92 | Cosart – R | 1.6 | 0.221 |
| Joey Votto | 0.961 | 0.368 | 0.402 | 1.02 | Wainwright – R | 2.58 | 0.333 |
| Chase Headley | 0.781 | 0.318 | 0.31 | 0.99 | Miley – L | 3.6 | 0.241 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.844 | 0.336 | 0.407 | 1.09 | Bumgarner – L | 2.84 | 0.302 |
| Zack Cozart | 1.048 | 0.273 | 0.283 | 1.02 | Wainwright – R | 2.58 | 0.235 |
- That loud thud you heard was Justin Upton crashing again from a hot streak, and this one hits him hard. He was continuing along swinging the bat well until a week ago when the wheels fell off. When he is off, he is off, and tonight’s matchup is not good. Masterson is very solid against right handers and Upton has done his best work against lefties and not right handers.
- Aramis Ramirez has been hot recently, but I really do not like his matchup tonight in PNC. He is hitting in a pitchers park against a guy in Morton who has been better than most have realized. Morton has not allowed more than 2 ER in a month and has held right handers to a .617 OPS. Any upside that Ramirez possesses today I really am not seeing.
- Brett Lawrie has had a hit in most of his recent games however he is not doing anything with them, just hitting singles. Although he likes right handers and is hitting in the Rogers Centre, I do not like him against Kuroda who has been the Yankees ace this year and pitching like it. Kuroda is dynamic and has held Lawrie to 2 hits on 15 at bats in the past.
- Alfonso Soriano cracked 2 homers tonight an I imagine a lot of people will be looking at him today. I was burned last time out, but I will still go with the numbers on this one and say to avoid him tonight. Redmond has actually pitched well at the Rogers Centre giving up only 6 ER and Soriano does not hit right handers very well. Aside from his 2 homer outburst last night, Soriano was back to doing hardly anything with the bat.
- Jason castro is having an incredible week, and is positioning himself as a top catcher option, however he finds himself in the unenviable position of facing Chris Sale today, who is the top pitcher on the board. Castro does not hit lefties well and as the most intimidating option on the Astros, it will not intimdate Sale as he allows lefties to hit at a .368 OPS. I am chalking his last start up to a freak accident and saying Sale goes 8ip 8k tonight.
- While Cosart has not convinced me enough to use him (maybe tonight?), he has convinced me to stop taking struggling hitters against him. Paul Konerko fits that bill, as he has not hit right handers at all this year and is really struggling to hit for power right now. Cosart has been very solid and has only allowed major league hitters to hit him at a .566 OPS.
- I am not used to seeing Joey Votto price this low, and it is tempting to always use him. He is having a good season, but not great, and has to face off against Wainwright tonight, so I am going to be passing on Votto. Even though Joey hits right handers well, he is in Busch tonight and Wainwright has owned him with a 3 for 23 history. Waino is also pitching amazing right now, so aside from a total collapse I am not liking Votto’s value.
- Chase Headley left last night’s game with a stiff back, and I do not think he is expected to start tonight either, so do not have him on your radar. Headley is only 1 for 12 against Miley who is pitching pretty well right now, so I would just ignore the Padres tonight.
- How can I recommend sitting Troy Tulowitzki? Well, mostly based on the pitcher. Tulo is against Bumgarner today who has been pitching very well lately. He induces a good amount of ground balls and has a decent K% which is very helpful in Coors Field. The Rockies lineup is somewhat embarrassing and a pitcher like Bumgarner should be able to do some nice work against them. You will have to pay for Tulo tonight and I would rather spend my money elsewhere.
- Zack Cozart has actually had a nice last week, but facing off against wainwright tonight is going to be a tall task. Cozart is 2 for 15 off Wainwright who is not going to let you get to the Cardinals bullpen if at all possible, which is bad news for Zack. I am just avoiding all Reds, even the lefties tonight.