Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 30th
College Football is starting up and NFL is also starting up next week so some of the focus might have been lost on baseball however there is still a huge slate of games out there tonight as well as a bunch of good value plays. The writeups will be short and sweet today as I am crunched for time at the moment.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | 0.608 | 0.316 | 0.379 | 1.04 | Gonzalez – R | 3.77 | 0.322 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.833 | 0.258 | 0.283 | 1.08 | Santana – R | 4.68 | 0.21 |
| Billy Butler | 1.09 | 0.329 | 0.36 | 1.08 | Buehrle – R | 4.08 | 0.303 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.71 | 0.324 | 0.333 | 1.07 | McAllister – R | 3.51 | 0.298 |
| Carlos Santana | 1 | 0.3 | 0.36 | 0.99 | Porcello – R | 4.49 | 0.241 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.05 | 0.336 | 0.405 | 0.99 | Lincecum – R | 4.55 | 0.294 |
| Will Middlebrooks | 0.334 | 0.267 | 0.296 | 1.07 | Santiago – L | 3.25 | 0.274 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.038 | 0.339 | 0.409 | 1.09 | Arroyo – R | 3.42 | 0.303 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.779 | 0.301 | 0.354 | 1.08 | Peacock – R | 5.67 | 0.297 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.625 | 0.337 | 0.381 | 1.08 | Manship – R | 6.86 | 0.319 |
- Robinson Cano stated that the swelling in his hand is down and hopes to be in the lineup tonight. The Yankees have an important series coming up so I bet he wants to play. I am not worried about his 2 for 14 BVP off Gonzalez, as he has got a lineup which now looks somewhat intimidating and was really hot for a period of time. I love Cano at home and against a righty if you can get him for a little discount.
- If you are looking for a value catcher, look no further than JP Arencibia. He is a great catcher punt with homer upside, and a great chance to homer tonight against Santana who has given up 13 homers to righties and is worse against right handers than left handers. Most of Arencibia’s homers come against right handers and at home which is the case today.
- Billy Butler is a big believer in BVP matchups and states that he sees certain guys like Verlander very well and that is why he is able to hit them so much. Tonight he faces Buehrle who he obviously sees very well as he has hit him to a tune of 20 for 57 with 3 homers. Butler is in one of the easiest parks to hit in today and is facing a left hander who he loves to hit against.
- Traveling to Comerica is never a good thing for a guy like McAllister who now has to face an angry Tigers lineup which came to life at the end of the Oakland series. The Tigers have owned Cleveland and Austin Jackson owns right handed pitching. Jackson is 4 for 7 off McAllister in their history and hits at the top of one of the most powerful lineups so runs a plenty if he can get on.
- Carlos Santana now gets to hit against a Tigers pitching staff which was victimized by the Oakland bats horribly, even better he faces the Tigers #5 guy in Porcello. Santana is not that great batting left handed, however he faces Porcello who he is 10 for 31 off of with 3 homers and Porcello has allowed left handed hitters to own him this year. Hits are always easy to come by against the ground ball pitcher and Santana could be another good catcher option.
- We were not able to abuse the Paul Goldschmidt versus a lefty last time out, however we get one almost as good tonight in Goldschmidt against Lincecum. Goldy has a 9 for 17 history with 5 homers and a whopping 2.021 OPS. Tim has been struggling against right handers while being very inconsistent, so I am expecting a big game out of Paul.
- The Red Sox have an over under their runs of 5 today which is really high. I am not too high on any of their big hitters matchups, so I believe this could be a place for some good value in a guy like Will Middlebrooks who has owned left handed pitching. Middlebrooks is struggling a bit right now but someone has to score those runs and he might as well be inexpensive.
- Troy Tulowitzki has been back and forth from the DL so many times he just does not miss a beat anymore. I really like him tonight in Coors against Arroyo. Arroyo is having a very nice season, beating his career numbers in WHIP and ERA, so we can probably expect him to be a bit worse than he has pitched. He is still giving up hits and some of those hits can turn into dingers tonight in Coors, and Tulowitzki is the perfect man for the job.
- I am loving the Mariners tonight against Peacock as a under the radar stack. They have a call up in Walker pitching so the batters are going to want to provide a lot of support, and the lefties on the team do well against right handers, Kyle Seager being one of them. Seager has a .867 OPS against right handers and even better for him, Peacock has allowed lefties to hit 8 homers in 112 at bats and given up a .996 OPS against them. Stack away.
- Shin-Soo Choo vs the right handed Jeff Manship in Coors? Yes please. This is almost a lock for a solid game and I do not want to pass up on matchups like this very often, as if you read this article you know how well Choo hits against righties, plus the Coors Field Bonus against a terrible pitcher.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jones | 0.568 | 0.325 | 0.357 | 0.97 | Sabathia – L | 4.81 | 0.244 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.178 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.97 | Sabathia – L | 4.81 | 0.265 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.711 | 0.327 | 0.345 | 0.98 | Gee – R | 3.69 | 0.279 |
| Justin Upton | 0.377 | 0.319 | 0.362 | 0.91 | Fernandez – R | 2.3 | 0.26 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.996 | 0.309 | 0.365 | 0.91 | Teheran – R | 3.08 | 0.24 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.501 | 0.267 | 0.328 | 0.99 | Darvish – R | 2.62 | 0.209 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.708 | 0.272 | 0.295 | 0.99 | Lincecum – R | 4.55 | 0.238 |
| Brandon Moss | 1.556 | 0.294 | 0.36 | 0.9 | Price – L | 3.28 | 0.203 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.43 | 0.292 | 0.319 | 0.98 | Parker – R | 3.58 | 0.218 |
| Chris Denorfia | 0.622 | 0.309 | 0.318 | 0.92 | Ryu – L | 3.08 | 0.292 |
- I am not too high on the Orioles tonight as they face a lefty in Sabathia who cannot be this bad for long right? The Orioles are not half as good against lefties as righties as even their righties have reverse splits. Jones has been struggling recently and will not be able to take advantage of the short porch unless he goes opposite field. Sabathia has been average against Jones in their careers and I think he gets the best of him tonight.
- Even though Matt Wieters hits better from the right side, I am looking to avoid him tonight as he is colder than your fingers after trying to cut frozen chicken into cubes without gloves on. Wieters is only 6 for 33 with 9 KOs against Sabathia and I do not think he turns it around tonight.
- It’s Zimmermann vs Gee tonight in one of the lower scoring projected matchups of the night. Zimmermann’s batter counterpart, Ryan Zimmerman (1 N), has to face Gee who he is 4 for 22 with a .535 OPs off Gee in their careers and has not done anything real special lately. I am just uninterested in this matchup.
- Justin Upton was diagnosed with a hand contusion after being hit by a pitch, so who knows if he plays tonight. If he does, do not use him anyways as he is really struggling to connect with anything with his last 7 OPs of .377. He is struggling against right handers as well, and Fernandez is the real deal and will shut him down.
- Giancarlo Stanton is hitting in a lineup to where if he gets hot, you can just pitch outside the strike zone and not give him anything to hit. This may result in some walks but no Stanton homers should come out of this, which is the way I expect Teheran to pitch him tonight. I like him in certain situations, but away against Teheran in one of the lower scoring games just seems like a bad plan.
- I always hate using guys who have been claimed on waivers because you never know where their head is at or when a trade might go through. This applies to Josh Willingham tonight and I cannot expect his head is in a very good place after struggling mightily recently. Oh, and he happens to be facing Yu Darvish who has owned right handed batting this year.
- Are any fans of Arizona actually happy that Miguel Montero is off the DL? Hooray, his .228 average and .662 OPS is back in the lineup! Tonight as an added bonus, he faces Lincecum who has been better against lefties and crushed Montero to a tune of 9 for 52 with 13 strikeouts in their previous meetings.
- Brandon Moss just got done feasting on Tigers’ pitching and it will be really interesting to see what Melvin does tonight. Usually Moss sits against most left handers, and a good one is on the hill tonight in Price, but how can you take a guy who has hit 4 homers in 3 games out of the lineup? I think sitting him is good as his numbers against lefties are pedestrian and Price is good. I would not use him due to the spike in salary tonight among the other things.
- Desmond Jennings has been consistently overpriced this year for whatever reason, and tonight he will have a tough time making value as well. He is hitting terribly in the last week, and hitting terribly against right handers. He will not be leading off as well, hitting more like the 7th spot as DeJesus hits first against right handed pitching now. This is just an overall garbage spot for Jennings.
- Ryu’s reverse splits are very interesting as he has been dominant against right handed batting holding them to a .637 OPS. Denorfia will most likely lead off and has been a solid value play recently, but because of the poor Padres offense and the Ryu reverse splits, I am not high on him as a value play, I think you can find better stuff elsewhere.