Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 12th
I love tonight’s dynamic of starting pitching, as you have the top 3 options with really nice matchups and then a plethora of really cheap options that could post some decent stat lines. Do you go safe and take 2 stud pitchers or do you gamble a bit and go with some big bats to get you the win? Here are some of the hitters that you will want to take a look at that have nice upside that are off the radar a bit.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Murphy | 0.777 | 0.222 | 0.29 | 0.97 | Fister – R | 4.07 | 0.221 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.317 | 0.274 | 0.302 | 0.97 | Grimm – R | 5.88 | 0.27 |
| Luke Scott | 1.456 | 0.308 | 0.359 | 1.01 | Cosart – R | 0 | 0.258 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.603 | 0.325 | 0.373 | 0.98 | Cosart – R | 0 | 0.259 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.14 | 0.316 | 0.361 | 0.97 | Williams – R | 4.16 | 0.313 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.851 | 0.291 | 0.377 | 0.96 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.12 | 0.381 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.221 | 0.94 | Diamond – L | 5.52 | 0 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.827 | 0.383 | 0.475 | 0.97 | Eovaldi – R | 2.55 | 0.31 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.289 | 0.352 | 0.407 | 0.96 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.12 | 0.293 |
| Brian McCann | 0.923 | 0.296 | 0.376 | 0.96 | Arroyo – R | 3.55 | 0.315 |
- I am a big fan of using David Murphy today as a cheap option in the outfield, even with his recent struggles. He hits all of his power off of right handers and he faces Fister who has given up 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Fister could find himself in some trouble early and the Rangers lineup is nothing to be messed with. Also in Murphy’s favor is his 9 for 20 BVP with 4 homers.
- Victor Martinez continues to pound out hit after hit and fantasy point after fantasy point, and is still not one of the highest priced catchers out there. I am going to continue rolling with him especially against Grimm who Vegas seems to hate as they have set the Tigers over/under at 5. Martinez is hot and crushing right handers this year, so no reason to stop plugging him in.
- Luke Scott is on fire posting a 1.456 OPS in the last 7 days and now gets to face the Astros top prospect in Cosart. Cosart throws hard and has posted a decent ERA in the minors, but I am not sold on him being a very good option today especially against the Rays offense. Vegas does not like him either giving the Rays a 4.5 over under at Tropicana field and making the Rays a -320 favorite to win. Scott homers against right handers and at home so I am looking at him to put up some big numbers.
- I cannot stop using Evan Longoria with his price right now. He is a very good hitter and his price is going to climb when he starts to get back on a roll. He has the chance to always have a monster day, and I like him against Cosart who is very green and Longo should be able to get it done today; his .373 wOBA is evidence that when he is hitting he gets it done.
- Kyle Seager is one of the brightest spots for the Mariners this year as they have found the 3rd baseman who can play and hit. His wOBA is impressive and he is getting it done against everyone, having a nice 11 game hitting streak with multiple hits in 6, scoring runs in almost all of those games and hitting 4 homers as well. Jerome Williams is not a top tier starter and Seager should have a solid chance to post good numbers again.
- Even though Gorzellany has had a nice season so far, I am not a huge fan of him in this game. He really put together a good start last time out, but that was against the Mets at home. The Diamondbacks at Chase against a left hander are a completely different story as you have Aaron Hill and a few others who absolutely rake against lefties. Hill is hitting .381 against lefties this year and is a nice option at 2nd base today.
- Derek Jeter first game went about as well as anyone could have expected, and if he gets to play again tonight it should go well again. He faces a lefty in Diamond who has really struggled this year to hold anyone back from scoring. The Yankees are putting up runs and Jeter’s price is reasonable on almost every site.
- Althought Eovaldi is a nice prosepct, he still is pitching a bit over his head with his 2.55 ERA on the season, and I expect that number to rise. Bryce Harper could be a part of that today and possibly a nice under the radar GPP pick. Harper has not homered in a while but does crush right handers and have hit 11 homers against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt is really incredible this season. He is hitting everyone and has a 8 game hitting streak going with 5 multiple hit games. If you remember from last year, Goldy destroys left handers and has a really great shot to put up some huge numbers against Gorzellany today with his other right handed bats in Chase field.
- One guy who should not be overlooked at catcher today is Brian McCann. He is 9 for 20 off of Arroyo with 4 homers, and has been hitting pretty well in the last 7 days. Arroyo’s stats are also money for McCann as he has a 5.7 ERA in 6 games away from Great American giving up 7 home runs and he also gives up a .825 OPS against left handers and has surrendered 11 home runs to them this year. If anyone has a great chance to homer today, it’s McCann.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.563 | 0.365 | 0.419 | 0.98 | Kershaw – L | 1.89 | 0.331 |
| Jason Castro | 1.011 | 0.319 | 0.345 | 1.01 | Price – L | 4.18 | 0.204 |
| Gerardo Parra | 0.281 | 0.33 | 0.335 | 1.01 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.12 | 0.25 |
| Zack Cozart | 0.195 | 0.252 | 0.237 | 0.93 | Medlen – R | 3.45 | 0.23 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.426 | 0.245 | 0.31 | 0.97 | Lackey – R | 2.8 | 0.21 |
| Billy Butler | 0.583 | 0.305 | 0.338 | 0.99 | Kluber – R | 4.23 | 0.272 |
| Justin Ruggiano | 0.248 | 0.249 | 0.302 | 0.89 | Strasburg – R | 2.45 | 0.21 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.676 | 0.301 | 0.354 | 0.96 | Corbin – L | 2.4 | 0.316 |
| Chris Davis | 0.57 | 0.354 | 0.447 | 1.08 | Buehrle – L | 4.5 | 0.252 |
| Michael Bourn | 0.344 | 0.375 | 0.305 | 1.03 | Chen – L | 2.41 | 0.316 |
- If I am going to recommend avoiding a player like Carlos Gonzalez, you have to assume he is facing Kershaw. I do not think that he has much upside today as the Colorado offense has been pretty bad lately. Kershaw looks like a top option today, and especially with the struggles that Gonzalez has had against him in his career going 5 for 27 with 14 strikeouts.
- Another guy who is facing a top option at pitcher today is Jason Castro. I would not want to be any of the Houston lefties, or any of the Houston players at all as this could be a day where Price racks up the strikeouts. Castro really struggles against left handers and that should not change here.
- If you are taking the right handers on Arizona against Gorzellany, the one guy I would not like to have is Gerardo Parra. He is really struggling only posting a .281 OPS in his last 7 games and he does not do any damage against left handers, hitting at a .639 OPS. If you are looking for an Arizona stack, he would be the one to leave off.
- Zack Cozart looks like he is in the middle of his summer “I can’t hit anything” run, where he is really struggling to put together any resemblance of a productive plate appearance. Dusty Baker is screwing up the Reds offense as well because he refuses to move Cozart out of the #2 spot in the lineup even with his struggles. Medlen is an effective pitcher and should be able to hold Cozart down with ease today as Cozart does most of his damage against lefties.
- One thing that Lackey has been good at recently is holding teams to 2 or less runs in his starts and going very deep into games. Yoenis Cespedes does not look like a good play because of this and because of how cold he is. It has been a long time without a homer for Cespedes and also a long time without an extra base hit. He also struggles against righties only posting a .650 OPS this year. I think you can find a comperable salary guy with better upside.
- Billy Butler has a couple of homers in the last week, but that still has not helped keep up his OPS as it currently sits at .583 in the last 7 days. He is struggling to be productive which is surprising considering how consistent he has been for the Royals. You are never really sure what you will get out of Kluber, however he is home where he has pitched better this year and is against a Royals offense which is not one of the top in baseball.
- The 3 top pitching options today all face teams that they should completely dominate. In this one, Strasburg gets Justin Ruggiano and the Marlins. While Ruggiano has been solid for power this year he is in a really horrible string of games where the Marlins offense is not doing much and he is not hitting the ball or scoring runs. Against Strasburg, I just don’t like this.
- A battle of strengths is going to go on at Chase Field today as Carlos Gomez battles Patrick Corbin. Gomez hits lefties well, but Corbin has been very solid for this entire year. I am going to side with Corbin on this one, as his ERA at home is 1.56 and he has really been solid at Chase Field. Corbin’s splits against righties are a bit worse than his splits against lefties, however he is still holding right handed batters to a .637 OPS which makes me a bit nervous about Gomez, as he has not done much lately.
- It is really hard to justify not using Chris Davis, however I think this is the day that you can ignore him and feel completely fine. His left on left splits are not so great, with only a .252 average and an .840 OPS which is low for him. He is also struggling recently, going 2 for 23 in the last 7 days and striking out in over half of his plate appearances recently. On a site like Draftstreet where strikeouts are negative points, he can really hurt you with an 0-4 3k game for his big salary.
- I am really concerned about Michael Bourn BABIP and his low wOBA. Usually he makes up for it by stealing a ton of bases, but he has been having to rely on his singles to get on base. He is having an issue scoring runs as well because he is not getting on base. Bruce Chen is not a top tier pitcher, but he has been ok pitching in relief this year and I just do not see Bourn as a very high upside guy.