Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 25th
Only 8 games on the night schedule, so picking that one guy who breaks out will be paramount. Not much rain in the schedule tonight so things seem a bit easier than dealing with weather. A lot of really uninspiring offenses playing tonight as well so that makes things a bit more interesting.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Zobrist | 0.962 | 0.302 | 0.329 | 1.07 | Lackey – R | 2.95 | 0.289 |
| Matt Wieters | 1.291 | 0.26 | 0.313 | 0.96 | Guthrie – R | 4.41 | 0.235 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 1.5 | 0.253 | 0.309 | 0.97 | Wilson – L | 3.15 | 0.253 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.862 | 0.278 | 0.377 | 0.97 | Straily – R | 4.14 | 0.254 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.807 | 0.315 | 0.366 | 0.97 | Correia – R | 4.17 | 0.321 |
| Cody Ransom | 0.263 | 0.261 | 0.369 | 0.96 | Miley – L | 4.03 | 0.244 |
| Joey Votto | 0.89 | 0.378 | 0.402 | 0.98 | Greinke – R | 3.36 | 0.338 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.233 | 0.313 | 0.331 | 0.98 | Latos – R | 3.53 | 0.287 |
| Carl Crawford | 0.808 | 0.315 | 0.332 | 0.98 | Latos – R | 3.53 | 0.274 |
| Chris Carter | 0.498 | 0.313 | 0.338 | 1.07 | Buehrle – L | 4.83 | 0.227 |
- Ben Zobrist and the Rays just keep on trucking. They must like playing in Fenway Park as they have done some real damage to the Red Sox this serices and look to continue it tonight. Zobrist is 11 for 27 career off lackey with a 407 average and a 1.034 OPS, and has been hitting well in the past few weeks. Zobrist hits at the top of the Rays lineup which is consistently producing runs.
- I had picked out Matt Wieters before he homered last night, so I hope he can keep this hot streak going. He has multiple hit games in 4 of his last 4 games and has hit 2 homers in his last 5. Usually he does not hit well off of right handers, however he has been on fire against them in his last few games.
- I hope that the injury that Yoenis Cespedes had did not curtail his monster home run derby confidence. I like his potential against Wilson at home in O.co as Wilson has strugged a bit more against right handers than he has left and Cespedes hits righties better. The power that Cespedes holds in unquestioned, it is about if he can hit the pitches that are coming at him, and for his price around town, I think he is worth it.
- Mark Trumbo is finally hitting the ball better recently, and has quietly jacked 22 homers in the year. He has multiple hit games in his last 3 and appears to be seeing the ball the best he has this season. Trumbo has hit 16 of his 22 homers against righties and has a higher average against them this year. Trumbo is not too expensive but always is a homer threat.
- Any time Kyle Seager plays against a right hander he is on my radar, even though he has not been hitting that well recently. His .935 OPS against them is a solid stat and he always has a chance to have a really nice game when he faces a right hander, especially against one like Correia. Correia never seems to go longer than 6 innings and consistently gives up about 3 runs per game.
- Cody Ransom is in a stretch where he has been completely terrible, however he has still posted impressive numbers against left handers this year. He is homering in almost one out of every 10 at bats against lefties this year and has posted a .947 OPS against them. Miley has not been that great and has allowed 13 homers to right handers. If you are not feeling Ransom, Alfonso Soriano may be in play however it will depend on the trade situation.
- Joey Votto is a walking machine, and is one of the superior hitters in the game so when he gets a favorable matchup, you want to use him. Even though the opposing pitcher is Greinke, the Reds can still do damage as they have 4 lefties who really punish right handers. Votto will be right in that mix with his 3 homers in 16 at bats against Greinke.
- Who needs Matt Kemp? With the resurgence of Andre Ethier and emergence of Puig, the Dodgers offense just keeps on trucking and winning games. They have scored 9, 14, 10 and 8 in their last 4 and Ethier has been a big part of that. Because of his poor early season, his price is low, which is even better for the guy who can really hit for average. Latos has ran into some trouble lately and does not look like the dominant pitcher that he is supposed to be.
- Another guy on the Dodgers to look for is Carl Crawford. Granted, there isn’t much this year to warrant using him but in the last 4 games during the Dodgers run explosion, he does have 9 hits. Latos has struggled against lefties as well giving up a .777 OPS against them this year and lefties have hit almost double the homers against him than righties.
- If you are looking for a cheap filler who has 2 homer power, look no further than Chris Carter. The power hitter from Houston gets to travel to the Rogers Centre which has been the most homer friendly park this year. Carter has not been good lately, but he basically only hits homers for his production and Buehrle likes to give them up when he is bad. I like Carter’s upside in a GPP tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reddick | 0.616 | 0.251 | 0.287 | 0.93 | Wilson – L | 3.15 | 0.203 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.68 | 0.311 | 0.322 | 0.97 | Iwakuma – R | 2.99 | 0.285 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.717 | 0.341 | 0.35 | 0.98 | Greinke – R | 3.36 | 0.27 |
| Melky Cabrera | 0.558 | 0.31 | 0.3 | 1.07 | Bedard – L | 4.41 | 0.25 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.248 | 0.334 | 0.353 | 1.05 | Hellickson – R | 4.62 | 0.3 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.67 | 0.355 | 0.375 | 0.88 | Kendrick – R | 3.94 | 0.331 |
| Cody Ross | 0.61 | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.96 | Villanueva – R | 4.16 | 0.2 |
| Billy Butler | 0.739 | 0.315 | 0.339 | 0.94 | Gonzalez – R | 3.34 | 0.276 |
| Coco Crisp | 0.695 | 0.268 | 0.329 | 0.97 | Wilson – L | 3.15 | 0.22 |
| Michael Young | 0.612 | 0.314 | 0.329 | 0.88 | Lynn – R | 413 | 0.302 |
- Josh Reddick has been terrible this year. I gave him the benefit of the doubt before and thought that he would be getting it together, however he continues to put up average game after average game. I do not like him against CJ Wilson as Wilson has been better against left handed batters and has been pretty good recently.
- Iwakuma is trying to recover from the homer binge that he gave up right before the all star break. In the last game he went seven strong and did not give up a homer at all. Iwakuma has been better against left handed batters giving up half the homers to lefties as righties. If Mauer is still out, the Twins lineup will look pretty sad again with only Justin Morneau in the middle of it. Morneau has lost his power this year as well and is not the formidable hitter he was before, so I am not a big fan of his today.
- One of the lefties that I was talking about above that kills right handers would be Jay Bruce, and he is down here. Why you ask? Well, not that he makes a terrible play tonight, but out of all of the left handers on Cincinnati he would be the one I would want to avoid if I was stacking them up. Bruce is 2 for 19 against Greinke with 6 strikeouts and has actually been a bit better against left handers this year than right handers. Like I said, not a terrible option but I like Choo better.
- Melky Cabrera is the singles king right now, and his last 14 hits have all been singles, counting back before he was injured. His slugging is almost equal to his average which is pretty horrible, and his 3 for 21 mark against Bedard is not inspiring anyone. His extra base hits have just gone to the birds after he has stopped using steroids, and definitely is not the player he was last year.
- Dustin Pedroia has been absolutely terrible recently, posting a nice .248 OPS in the last 7 and collecting 2 hits since the all star break. Pedroia also is 5 for 28 career against Hellickson who has been very good recently. This looks like a typical struggling bad matchup avoid.
- It is hard to recommend sitting Yadier Molina since he has been the best hitting catcher in the game this year. The problem is, he is not hitting for much power as his .335 average has only translated out to a .867 OPS and 7 homers. Busch Stadium has been rough on right handers and Molina has had trouble with Kendrick in a short sample.
- Those who believe BVP will look at Cody Ross and look to use him today, however I would advise against it. Ross’ right handed splits are terrible, he hits .200 and a .548 OPS against right handers along with Villanueva holding righties to a .683 OPS. If you like small samples, go with BVP but the reliable data says that Ross will not produce tonight.
- I am not a fan of Billy Butler tonight as his Royals have to take on one of the top pitching options in Miguel Gonzalez. The Royals are not scoring a ton of runs right now, so even though Butler has been hitting decently, his upside is not there as the 10 run breakout does not look apparent.
- Coco Crisp has really been struggling against left handed pitchers this year, and really in his career. CJ Wilson is obviously left handed, and has been pitching better as of late. Crisp is only 5 for 28 in his career against Wilson and has not been tearing it up lately, so if you are looking to play Oakland players, be careful with him.
- After a mini-hot streak, Michael Young has really cooled, and looks to be slumping again. The Phillies lineup looks a bit worse without Brown and Howard, and Lynn has a nice chance to bounce back tonight. Lynn has been very good against right handers this year, and if he has figured out what has been ailing him should be able to shut down this Phillies lineup.