Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 26th
One of the last big Fridays with the big qualifiers. Fridays always have a lot of games and a lot of different options to choose, so sifting through the matchups and getting the right team mini stacks and right fillers is paramount today. There are some good value pitchers today as well so you should be able to spend on the big bats if you want to go that way.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.958 | 0.315 | 0.369 | 0.94 | Sabathia – L | 4.37 | 0.336 |
| Jose Reyes | 0.927 | 0.339 | 0.371 | 1.02 | Lyles – R | 4.78 | 0.324 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.799 | 0.239 | 0.378 | 1.07 | Lyles – R | 4.78 | 0.265 |
| Allen Craig | 0.858 | 0.38 | 0.378 | 0.93 | Minor – L | 2.98 | 0.316 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.651 | 0.335 | 0.362 | 0.97 | Peralta – R | 4.3 | 0.244 |
| Cody Ross | 0.594 | 0.291 | 0.303 | 0.96 | Stults – L | 3.45 | 0.374 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.924 | 0.313 | 0.358 | 0.98 | Bailey – R | 3.84 | 0.309 |
| Daniel Murphy | 0.967 | 0.31 | 0.311 | 0.94 | Ohlendorf – R | 2.03 | 0.293 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.742 | 0.355 | 0.375 | 0.93 | Minor – L | 2.98 | 0.38 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.754 | 0.289 | 0.312 | 0.96 | Jackson – R | 5.03 | 0.259 |
- I remember reading on Twitter a while back when Evan Longoria was facing CC Sabathia that dinkpiece tweeted that he believes in the Longoria Sabathia BVP numbers, and I do as well. It is a pretty solid sample where Longo has 18 hits on 47 at bats with 6 homers and a 1.368 OPS. Longoria is also pretty hot right now and hitting in a Rays lineup that is getting it done.
- Even the mighty Coors Field cannot hold a torch to Rogers Centre, as the Jays are team with the highest over under tonight at 5.5. Reyes gets to lead off against the right handed Lyles, and if the last few games are any indication, he is in for a shellacking. I love Reyes at shortstop today as he can steal bases as well as hit for power in the Rogers Centre.
- It does not matter to Edwin Encarnacion if he is hitting against a lefty or a righty, so Lyles’ pitches will look all the more juicy tonight. Encarnacion’s BABIP is remarkably low, indicating that he has gotten somewhat unlucky in his hits that stay in the park, but who needs those when you can hit them out? It is hard to envision anyone with the upside that Encarnacion or Bautista have today.
- Even without Holliday, the Cardinals still have a lineup who can do damage to lefties. Allen Craig is one of the main reasons. He has tremendous power against lefties and has top home run power against lefties. Minor’s one weakness this year has been right handed bats and although a Cardinals stack might not produce you 10 runs, Craig and Molina are looking like solid plays.
- Dexter Fowler has struggled a bit in the average department against right handers but has still hit a bunch of home runs against them which he has not done against lefties this year. Fowler plays for the 2nd highest over under team in Colorado, but with Gonzalez probably out for this game, it makes me a little more nervous than if that extra power bat was in there for stacking Rockies. Peralta has been good lately, but his one weakness has been left handed batters, so Fowler looks good.
- Here we go again, we get Cody Ross against a left hander, which is almost an auto play in my book as he is so cheap on most sites and gives you top tier production against the righties. Stults has been effective but has given up a .690 OPS to right handers and is much better at Petco than away from home, so he may not be the best pitcher today.
- Adrian Gonzalez gets the BVP award of the day, going 8 for 15 with 5 home runs off of Bailey, which is an incredible number for such a small sample. He has a 2.200 OPS against him which is really nuts, so I will be looking to plug him in today. Bailey struggles against left handers as well giving up a .755 OPS and 8 of his 10 home runs, so trot Mr. Gonzalez out with confidence.
- To use all of the other higher priced guys, you need some cheaper options and Daniel Murphy is a decent one at 2nd base. He is off everyone’s radar, and hits right handers pretty well. Ohlendorf has been pretty good this year, but his numbers this year are way way better than his career numbers. The guy has a career whip of 1.45 and almost a 5.00 ERA, which are numbers that just do not get it done.
- Yadier Molina is really killing left handers this year hitting for a .950 OPS and getting his bat on almost everything they throw at him. The Craig/Molina combo is a very nice one to have especially against a guy like Minor who would rather pitch against left handers. Molina has been the best hitting catcher, and although he does not have much power, he will rarely give you a 0.
- It looks to me like Pablo Sandoval may have figured out how to hit again, as he has a couple of multi hit games in a row and has been hitting for a little power lately. He does have a nice history against Jackson with 6 hits in 11 at bats and a homer, and Jackson is not the greatest pitcher. He had a couple of good starts, but usually he tricks you into thinking he is a good pitcher and then throws up a complete stinker and gives up 6 ER. I don’t trust him, and would rather be on the Giants side of things.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.7 | 0.295 | 0.352 | 0.89 | Locke – L | 2.11 | 0.267 |
| Dan Uggla | 1.045 | 0.247 | 0.334 | 0.93 | Wainwright – R | 2.44 | 0.206 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.641 | 0.273 | 0.3 | 0.87 | Shields – R | 3.24 | 0.234 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.429 | 0.343 | 0.341 | 0.97 | Colon – R | 2.52 | 0.303 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.559 | 0.308 | 0.318 | 0.97 | Hernandez – R | 2.43 | 0.279 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.933 | 0.348 | 0.395 | 0.98 | Kershaw – L | 2.01 | 0.184 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.641 | 0.29 | 0.322 | 0.94 | Hellickson – R | 4.62 | 0.245 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.457 | 0.328 | 0.341 | 0.96 | Harvey – R | 2.23 | 0.273 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.068 | 0.402 | 0.473 | 0.97 | Bailey – R | 3.84 | 0.402 |
| Justin Upton | 0.372 | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.93 | Wainwright – R | 2.44 | 0.248 |
- Giancarlo Stanton leaves Coors Field with only one homer this time which is a big disappointment. The Marlins now have to face Locke who has been one of the best pitchers in the game. If anyone has been reading this, you probably know that Locke is better against right handers, only allowing a .564 OPS to them this year. Stanton returns to Marlins Park where it is much harder to hit, and I do not like him today.
- Dan Uggla has been hot lately, smashing home runs off of multiple different pitchers, however the one he faces today if no slouch. Wainwright is one of the best in the game, and I would be surprised if Uggla was to connect off of Wainwright in Turner field. Uggla is not much use if he is not hitting home runs and could potentially strike out 3 or 4 times against Wainwright, so he is not on my radar today even with his hot last couple of weeks, not to mention he is only 4 for 22 off Wainwright in his career.
- I am not high on Paul Konerko as well, as he has done very little since rejoining the White Sox lineup. He has a couple of singles and a couple of walks and now has to face Shields who he has had no success off going 5 for 33 with 11 strikeouts. He is not hitting right handers as well as he usually does this year and could be reaching his old man breaking point.
- Howie Kendrick will step to the plate against Bartolo Colon tonight, and is anyone really doubting that Colon is on steroids? Colon has been solid this year and has pitched well, and Kendrick has had no succes off of him going 1 for 19. Kendrick is also struggling at the plate to find anything in these last few games, so I like multiple 2nd basemen over him today.
- Justin Morneau as well has been struggling lately, and it does not help that the Twins lineup right now is a mess. The Twins lineup now has to deal with Felix Hernandez which will make things a bit worse. The only Twin with success against King Felix is Mauer, and Morneau is 5 for 33 with 8 strikeouts and a .540 OPS. I just do not see the reason to play him in this spot.
- Throw all the recent stats out the window when you are dealing with Choo, and the only stat that matters is which hand the pitcher is throwing from. Choo cannot hit left handers, and I would imagine not the best left hander in the game right now either. Kershaw should be able to chow down on Choo pretty easily today as Choo only has a .525 OPS against lefties and 0 homers.
- The return of Alfonso Soriano to the Bronx may be an emotional one, but I do not think we should get caught up in that. The real data is suggesting that it may not be a good idea to use him today. Soriano has struggled against right handers this year, and Hellickson has been really solid all around for his last 6 starts, to include being tough on right handers for the entire year.
- There was a time when Ian Desmond was a solid shortstop option no matter the pitcher earlier this year, however he has began struggling and the Nats have been struggling to the point where I may not even consider him against a bad pitcher. Harvey is certainly not a bad pitcher and has been brutal against all hitters this year. I am just going to steer clear of this one.
- Is this when Hanley Ramirez incredibly hot bad finally returns to Earth? I am not sure, but I do not want to use him today. His price is completely out of control, costing as much as Cabrera during a hot streak on some sites, and he has to face Bailey today who has really done a number on right handed bats. There are other teams that have a higher over under than the Dodgers and cheaper shortstops with the same upside in my opinion.
- It is just absurd how good Justin Upton was at the beginning of the season and how bad he is right now. I did not think someone could look that good and now play this bad. He does not have a good shot at turning it around tonight as the Braves have to face Wainwright who could be in domination mode. Just don’t use him.