Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 3rd
We have a packed slate of games tonight as basically every game is a night game before the day baseball for Independence Day. We are just over a week away from the Midsummer Classic on DraftKings, so go over and try to win some seats to take down one of the biggest tournaments in DFS.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Bautista | 1.408 | 0.265 | 0.375 | 1.07 | Scherzer – R | 3.1 | 0.276 |
| Billy Butler | 1.132 | 0.332 | 0.349 | 0.98 | Kazmir – L | 4.83 | 0.25 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.94 | 0.266 | 0.291 | 1.07 | Miller – R | 2.79 | 0.255 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.957 | 0.36 | 0.383 | 1.07 | Williams – R | 3.21 | 0.335 |
| Jed Lowrie | 0.924 | 0.34 | 0.353 | 0.99 | Garza – R | 3.83 | 0.322 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.935 | 0.323 | 0.354 | 0.92 | Lannan – L | 4.83 | 0.315 |
| Brian McCann | 1.313 | 0.262 | 0.365 | 0.95 | Nolasco – R | 3.93 | 0.297 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.964 | 0.32 | 0.363 | 0.95 | Minor – L | 2.98 | 0.257 |
| Todd Frazier | 0.721 | 0.292 | 0.328 | 1.07 | Zito – L | 4.53 | 0.247 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.618 | 0.291 | 0.309 | 1.12 | Chatwood – R | 2.13 | 0.27 |
- Jose Bautista is a bit of a risky pick today because of how good Scherzer has been, but the numbers seem to be lining up for him. He is on fire with a 5 game hitting streak where he has scored multiple runs, hit 3 homers, is walking a lot and driving in runs. He has hit right handers better than left this year, and has hit 15 of his 19 homers off of right handers. He also has a positive BVP off Scherzer going 6 for 11 with a 1.734 OPS. Don’t discount him just because of the pitcher.
- Billy Butler as well is riding an 8 game hitting streak, so it looks like his plate approach is improving, now we just need the power. Butler has really killed lefties in his history, but this year is struggling a little bit against them. I still like his power potential against left handers and I think he will be one of the lesser owned upside guys tonight.
- Miller has really struggled in 3 of his last 4 games making some think he is just a flash in the pan. I do not know if I would go that far, but it appears he does need a bit more seasoning before he consistently dominates day in and day out. Josh Hamilton has had probably his best stretch of the season, going on a nice 7 game hitting streak helping the Angels win 7 in a row. The only thing he has not done in this stretch is homer, and I think he has a good shot at doing that tonight for a cheaper price than the big salary guys right now.
- Matt Carpenter is another guy who is riding a nice hot streak. He brings ok power at 2nd base but has decreased his strikeout rates a ton this year and is really excelling at the leadoff spot in the Cardinals lineup. Cano is out of control right now but if you are looking for a little cheaper 2nd baseman who has a solid matchup look no farther than Carpenter.
- At shortstop today, I would take a long look at Jed Lowrie. His season has been a roller coaster, going nuts, then cooling off, and now he is going nuts again. This season, Lowrie has really improved his approach against right handers, and against righties is where most of his power is coming from. Garza has been good recently, but his good games came against Milwaukee, Houston, and the Mets, so not exactly the highest power offenses.
- Andrew McCutchen makes a great play today against Lannan as he crushes left handers and always has. McCutchen does not have the gaudy numbers as usual, only because he does not have the total at bats against them yet. Lannan has allowed right handers to hit him to a .870 OPS clip this year and Cutch should produce top tier numbers tonight.
- Some BVPs are really hard to justify them meaning anything, but Brian McCann vs Nolasco has to be one of those that you believe in. He is 19 for 55 with 7 home runs and a 1.162 OPS. with Nolasco being below average against lefties and McCann crushing them to a .989 OPs this year, I am going to try to roster him everywhere today.
- Giancarlo Stanton price is extremely low on a few sites. He will end up being close to the top everywhere, so I am going to try to fit him in while his price is so low as he is one of the top home run hitters in the league. Minor struggles a bit against right handers, so Stanton has a good shot at doing something nice tonight.
- The feel good story of last year, Todd Frazier, has been somewhat silent today, but a homer against the Giants in a rain shortened game could signal Frazier is getting it together. Frazier really hammered lefties last year, and should be able to do the same against Zito who is away from home tonight in a hitter’s park. I like all Reds righties today and Frazier looks like a solid play as he is a bit of a bargain.
- Andre Ethier has not been good this year, at all. That only means that he should be able to be found at a bargain all across the industry. He is still a good hitter, and should benefit from playing in Coors tonight. Ethier really likes hitting against right handers, and even though Chatwood has been solid this year, Ethier has a very high ceiling tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis | 0.56 | 0.299 | 0.325 | 0.92 | Santiago – L | 3.59 | 0.277 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.396 | 0.284 | 0.345 | 1.04 | Hernandez – R | 2.7 | 0.284 |
| Joe Mauer | 0.436 | 0.384 | 0.38 | 1.06 | Sabathia – L | 4.15 | 0.365 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 1.555 | 0.304 | 0.307 | 0.95 | Colon – R | 2.79 | 0.231 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.67 | 0.338 | 0.397 | 0.9 | Harvey – R | 2 | 0.313 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.222 | 0.356 | 0.33 | 0.92 | Locke – L | 2.06 | 0.171 |
| Logan Morrison | 1.097 | 0.348 | 0.398 | 0.95 | Minor – L | 2.98 | 0.125 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.754 | 0.29 | 0.343 | 0.92 | Lannan – L | 4.83 | 0.183 |
| Brandon Crawford | 0.053 | 0.308 | 0.305 | 0.97 | Cingrani – L | 3.42 | 0.235 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.186 | 0.284 | 0.308 | 1.07 | Cingrani – L | 3.42 | 0.314 |
- Avoiding Nick Markakis did not work out so well last night, but I would still make the same decision and want to avoid him against tonight. He has not homered against a lefty this year and other than last night has really been struggling to do anything positive in the last week.
- I love when guys like Ian Kinsler and Felix Hernandez are in the same division and have a long history with each other, as you get guys with 69 at bats for a BVP measure. Kinsler has a .232 average and a .751 OPS against Felix in their history, and it really does not matter if it has to do with Felix dominating Kinsler, or just because Felix is a great pitcher. Whichever it is, I do not want to use Kinsler today as he has not been able to hit his way out of a brown paper bag recently.
- Another guy who has not been hitting is Joe Mauer. His .436 OPS in the last 7 days is one of the lowest out there. Mauer as well has a long history against Sabathia going 6 for 35 with a 14 strikeouts, so a turnaround for Mauer’s struggles may not be coming today.
- I am not convinced by Alfonso Soriano recent hot streak that he is going to be a solid option for a while. He is still inept at hitting right handers, and especially today against Colon. Colon is in the midst of one of his best and biggest seasons, no doubt due to something unnatural. Colon is going deep into games, and Soriano’s 7 for 36 history with .654 OPS was when Colon was not as good.
- I do not think Paul Goldschmidt salary is worth it today, as he has to face Harvey. Although Goldschmidt has really improved his approach against right handed pitchers, but Harvey is leading the majors in basic statistics and advanced statistics and has a really low WHIP. I would rather use another guy at the same salary.
- Locke’s start was pushed back to today making Ryan Howard a decent play yesterday, but changing the pitcher to Locke makes him a bad play. He is ice cold and cannot hit left handers, so I would not expect him to change it around. His .509 OPS against lefties this year is downright terrible.
- As I noted above, Minor has been really solid against left handers this year holding them to a .539 OPS this year. Logan Morrison has also struggled against lefties in his short sample this year, so a dominant performance by Minor today is not out of the question. While I do like Stanton, I dislike Morrison just as much.
- If you are looking for a cheap guy with upside to homer, Pedro Alvarez was what you were looking for about a month ago, however since his monster hot streak, his salary has skyrocketed, and now you need him to consistently perform. Lannan is not the greatest pitcher, but he has held lefties to a .397 OPS in his short history this year, and Alvarez has really struggled against lefties this year.
- Oh man, Brandon Crawford is terrible. His early season success was a smoke screen to him just being really bad with the bat. He brings nothing to the table today, and the entire Giants offense leaves something to be desired. There are much better ways you can punt the shortstop position.
- Pablo Sandoval is part of this Giants garbage that they are going through right now. Since coming back from his injury, he has been just terrible. He has a .317 split against lefties this year, but over his career he has really struggled against them so that is a bit misleading. Is Buster Posey able to carry this lineup?