Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 14th
Welcome to Friday, Grinders! Friday is when you throw all cares to the wind and trash bankroll management to try to qualify for the many end of season tournaments there are around the industry. Let us look at some of the batters who have some high upside tonight who could grab you a victory in the qualifiers.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Zobrist | 1.163 | 0.305 | 0.334 | 1.02 | Mendoza – R | 4.19 | 0.279 |
| Billy Butler | 0.717 | 0.312 | 0.345 | 0.96 | Moore – L | 3.78 | 0.245 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.979 | 0.297 | 0.378 | 1.01 | Buehrle – L | 5.06 | 0.267 |
| Jose Bautista | 1.017 | 0.267 | 0.396 | 1.01 | Grimm – R | 5.25 | 0.27 |
| Ryan Doumit | 0.325 | 0.234 | 0.306 | 1.05 | Porcello – R | 4.86 | 0.225 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.777 | 0.378 | 0.457 | 1.02 | Diamond – L | 5.19 | 0.431 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.446 | 0.282 | 0.278 | 1.09 | Bedard – L | 5.34 | 0.324 |
| Josh Rutledge | 0 | 0.262 | 0.29 | 1.08 | Kendrick – R | 3.22 | 0.272 |
| Everth Cabrera | 0.984 | 0.352 | 0.349 | 1.07 | Cahill – R | 4.02 | 0.244 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.742 | 0.274 | 0.377 | 0.97 | Nicasio – R | 4.61 | 0.269 |
- Last night’s game, notwithstanding, Ben Zobrist has been one of the hottest hitters with a 9 game hitting streak before the Rays disaster last night. He is hitting for power and walking, and tonight he gets Luis Mendoza who was able to boost his ERA facing the Astros last time out. The Rays can hit just a bit better than the Astros so Luis Mendoza will be in for some trouble.
- A really interesting play that not many people may think about is Billy Butler. He has crushed left handers over the court of his career, and is facing Matt Moore who has been embarrassing in his last 2 starts. The Royals have put together a nice string of games and if Moore has not figured it out could be in line for another 10 run night.
- Many might look at Nelson Cruz 0 for 12 against Buehrle and try to stay away but I think he has a solid matchup tonight. The 0 for 12 does not bother me as it only has 1 strikeout, which means that Cruz has hit Buerhle, the balls have just gotten fielded. Cruz destroyed left handers earlier in the year and I think the Rangers could put a crooked number up against Mark.
- Jose Bautista may be at the beginning of a homering binge as he has hit 3 in the last 3 games and has a nice 1.017 OPS in the last 7 days. Justin Grimm has been pretty terrible this month, and with Bautista hitting most of his homers against right handers this year, tonight looks like a good night to jack one in hot Rangers Park.
- Ryan Doumit has been a turd lately, not really hitting much of anything. His salary is most likely extremely low, making it possible to fit in some top salary guys if you use him. One thing he does bring to the table is power, and Porcello does give up the long ball in bunches. I know that Porcello has been pitching quality start after quality start, but I still do not trust him and expect him to get lit up soon.
- Miguel Cabrera is basically guaranteed fantasy points. He is walking 1-2 times per game, and scores a run almost every game. His little cold streak hopefully has brought his salary down to manageable level, and while I do not love his high salary, I am liking his 10 for 19 history against Diamond. There is no more of a sure thing to grab you a few fantasy points in baseball than Miguel.
- I am at the point where I am going to give up on Dayan Viciedo homering against left handers. I just cannot escape him tonight though, with how cheap he is and against Bedard. I think he may be a nice GPP play as not many may think of using him, and he has really destroyed left handed pitching in his career.
- It is sad to see Tulo go to the DL (again), but the consensus is that Josh Rutledge will be taking his spot, and I would imagine if he was called up he will be playing today. We all remember what happened last year when he was called up as he became a solid fantasy option hitting in Coors. Rutledge has fantasy value and hopefully is a bit underpriced after his AAA stint. He gets Kendrick today, who has been good, but has not shut down the opposing teams.
- I am still a huge fan of Everth Cabrera today at shortstop, the guy has been red hot lately, and his potential of stealing 2 bases in a night makes him one of the most dangerous fantasy players out there. The one thing he does need to work on is taking walks, but with the way he is hitting, he does not need to.
- Domonic Brown has cooled off since his ridiculous month of May where he clubbed clusters of home runs. He still has that power, and hitting in Coors could be the perfect time for him to get going again. Nicasio has some interesting reverse splits this year, but his career numbers still say that he struggles more against left handers so I would not worry about those too much. I really like this spot for the Philadelphia offense today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Hardy | 0.594 | 0.255 | 0.331 | 1 | Dempster – R | 4.4 | 0.263 |
| Dan Uggla | 1.247 | 0.243 | 0.325 | 0.9 | Bumgarner – L | 3.58 | 0.196 |
| David DeJesus | 0.35 | 0.285 | 0.327 | 0.89 | Marcum – R | 4.96 | 0.266 |
| Rickie Weeks | 1.172 | 0.285 | 0.293 | 0.99 | Arroyo – R | 3.35 | 0.192 |
| Jed Lowrie | 0.41 | 0.337 | 0.346 | 0.9 | Saunders – L | 5.12 | 0.289 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.558 | 0.289 | 0.277 | 0.96 | Wilson – L | 4.02 | 0.358 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.482 | 0.298 | 0.274 | 1.01 | Buehrle – L | 5.06 | 0.2 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.414 | 0.364 | 0.344 | 1.02 | Moore – L | 3.78 | 0.385 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.477 | 0.385 | 0.352 | 1 | Tillman – R | 3.89 | 0.272 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1.308 | 0.52 | 0.591 | 0.88 | Locke – R | 2.39 | 0.588 |
- One thing I do not like is a cold hitter facing someone he has had no success off of and that is what J.J. Hardy gets to do today. He has managed only 2 hits in 28 at bats with 7 strikeouts against Dempster, and is really struggling lately. I would rather use a few other shortstops today.
- Dan Uggla has been a nice fantasy gamble over the past week if you catch him when he homers. The problem is, that he is striking out almost consistently twice per game. He has a horrible 1 for 16 history with 6 strikeouts against Bumgarner, and it just does not look like a good spot for Uggla to homer today.
- David DeJesus should get the nod to leadoff against Marcum today, but if you look at what DeJesus has been doing in this month (3 for 30) and what he has done against Marcum in his career (3 for 23 .484 OPS), you really get to wonder why they would want him leading off. I do not like his upside on a sad Cubs offense.
- One of the times that you will get a really meaningful sample is today when Rickie Weeks sets up to hit against Arroyo. They have 50 at bats against each other and weeks has onl managed a hit in 9 of them. His .180 average and .615 OPS are below his career averages, and even with his decent last week, I still do not like his upside.
- It seems like so long ago that Jed Lowrie was intimidating pitchers and really making them work. That was all the way back in April, and he has not homered since then. In fact he only has 4 hits in the month of June and is really struggling to do anything productive. He has not homered this year off of left handed pitching and Saunders is typically better in Safeco.
- I am really not a fan of most of the Yankees left handers today, but Ichiro may be my least favorite. His OPS in the last 7 days is terrible and he has a 9 for 46 history against Wilson with a .499 OPS in their 46 at bats. Ichiro just does not seem like a good value play.
- This has been a disastrous campaign so far for Elvis Andrus. His OPS is barely above .600 for the season, and he is not stealing bases against left handers. He has limited history but no success against Buehrle, and has really been struggling at the plate in the last 7 days, only hitting singles when he does. He has really low upside and is a terrible GPP pick.
- Even with how bad Moore has been in his last 2 starts, Alex Gordon numbers concern me. His BABIP of .364 tells me that his hit balls have been getting a bit lucky, and he has shown no power over the past month or so. He is hitting against Moore, and while he does homer more against left handers than right, he has yet to homer in June at all. I am preching caution when using him tonight.
- I am not sure if Mike Napoli is going to play tonight or not, but I would not make him a part of your pre-lineups lineup. He was removed due to an illness, so maybe that has been what is effecting his swing. He has looked like garbage in the past week only posting a .477 OPS. While he does homer a lot against right handers, I would rather not risk his power swing being compromised by whatever illness he is dealing with.
- Yasiel Puig is also questionable tonight, and even if he does play I would not want to use him in PNC. He is facing Locke who has shut down right handers this year and is one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the NL right now. Puig’s salary has skyrocketed to where he is almost not worth using, so I would avoid him until it drops again.