Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 21st
Everybody’s working for the weekend, and we are almost there. It is Friday, and time to enjoy the weekend by winning a qualifier, as we are getting down to the last few available spots in them. I really enjoy some stackable options today like the Dodgers and Blue Jays, and there are no known weather concerns at this point.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dozier | 1.422 | 0.265 | 0.295 | 1.03 | Kazmir – L | 5.89 | 0.293 |
| Matt Joyce | 1.015 | 0.267 | 0.373 | 1.03 | Phelps – R | 4.08 | 0.274 |
| Melky Cabrera | 0.555 | 0.31 | 0.304 | 1.05 | Hammel – R | 5.24 | 0.2297 |
| JP Arencibia | 1.077 | 0.255 | 0.299 | 1.1 | Hammel – R | 5.24 | 0.207 |
| Chris Davis | 1.275 | 0.387 | 0.468 | 1.05 | Dickey – R | 4.9 | 0.363 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1 | 0.412 | 0.422 | 0.87 | Richard – L | 7.01 | 0.154 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.15 | 0.345 | 0.394 | 0.97 | Phelps – R | 4.08 | 0.296 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1.096 | 0.524 | 0.539 | 0.87 | Richard – L | 7.01 | 0.55 |
| Ryan Howard | 1.269 | 0.358 | 0.332 | 1.1 | Hefner – R | 3.96 | 0.299 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.917 | 0.291 | 0.361 | 0.91 | Lyons – L | 4.65 | 0.261 |
- Brian Dozier has really found his power stroke lately, smashing 3 bombs in his last 4 games. He also has a 5 game hitting streak going and gets to face Kazmir who is having a rough return year. Dozier has been batting leadoff, is cheap, and is really seeing the ball well right now.
- Even though Matt Joyce has been struggling in one of his last 2 games, he was still raking before that and had a nice hit streak going. He loves batting against right handers and bats at the top of Maddon’s lineup when he does. Another thing I love about Joyce is his wOBA sitting at .373, so when he hits the ball he hits it for extra bases. Phelps has been known to implode this year, and I like Joyce hitting in Yankee stadium.
- Another leadoff hitter, Melky Cabrera has the matchup that he needs to hit a rare home run. His power stroke seems to have disappeared since he was suspended, but the good news is that all 3 of his home runs this year have came in Rogers Centre where he plays tonight. Hammel has been pretty bad this season, and usually gives up a good plethora of hits. Melky’s BVP is also a positive having gone 5 for 13 with 2 homers and 0 strikeouts.
- If you are going to do a Jays stack or mini stack tonight, you will want to include JP Arencibia. His price is still miniscule and he will give you the home run power that you need. Arencibia hits his home runs at home and hits them against right handers, so he has a good of a chance to go deep as almost anyone on Toronto, as Hammel has been an equal opportunity pitcher giving up the same home run rate to lefties and righties.
- To get Chris Davis, you are going to have to pay, and I do not have any problem with forking over the salary for him today. He is completely locked in, and lighting up all sorts of pitching right now. RA Dickey’s numbers also are really positive for Davis having given up 9 homers in the Rogers Centre this year and allowing a .822 OPS to left handers on the season. If he can keep this pace up, Davis will be the LeBron of fantasy baseball.
- Hanley Ramirez is back and has been hitting the ball around in his last 3 games. He is still fairly cheap on most sites and gets to face my favorite pitcher to stack against, Clayton Richard. Richard had a solid game last time out but one start does not make a starter. The real number I am looking at here is the 11 home runs he has given up to righties this year in 158 plate appearances leading to a 1.050 OPS for right handers. Hanley also has 9 hits in 12 tries off of Richard in their history. Load up the Dodger righties.
- My strategy today is going to be to find some cheap pitchers that can keep me in it while I load up on bats because there are a lot of good stars with solid matchups. Evan Longoria has hit most of his homers this year off of right handed pitching, and today hits against the highly combustable Phelps. Phelps has actually been worse against right handers this year, allowing a .282 average and .750 OPS, so I would not rule out another big game from Longo.
- This is such an absurd start for Yasiel Puig to his major league career, and it just does not appear to be slowing down. His price has jumped high, but if you can find him anywhere that does not have him at the top of the outfielders salaries, he is someone you need to have in your lineup tonight against Richard. It’s daily fantasy gold when someone as terrible as Richard is against right handers faces off against one of the hottest righties in the game.
- Look who is back to hitting the ball, Ryan Howard. His price was absurdly low on a few sites and has been for most of this year. He still possesses home run power and can unleash it at any time even though he has not done much of it lately. Hefner has been pitching well but has given up a .908 OPS to lefties this year, and with the nice lefties the Phillies have it could spell trouble.
- I am looking at the Rangers/Cardinals game as one that could produce a lot more runs that people are thinking. The Cardinals hit lefties well and Lyons has been getting progressively worse each start he has thrown. The Rangers are going to see what Miami did well last time out and make some nice adjustments. Nelson Cruz has been a risk/reward play in the last couple of weeks, going every other day with no hits and then a monster game. It is his turn for a big game tonight and I think he does it against Lyons.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Buck | 0.568 | 0.24 | 0.299 | 0.99 | Hamels – L | 4.4 | 0.193 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.305 | 0.315 | 0.332 | 0.98 | Colon – R | 2.89 | 0.253 |
| Chase Headley | 0.512 | 0.276 | 0.303 | 0.87 | Kershaw – L | 1.84 | 0.208 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.711 | 0.337 | 0.399 | 0.99 | Cueto – R | 2.08 | 0.312 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.85 | 0.318 | 0.283 | 0.97 | Guthrie – R | 3.72 | 0.266 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.414 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.95 | Iwakuma – R | 2.06 | 0.207 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.62 | 0.278 | 0.277 | 0.97 | Guthrie – R | 3.72 | 0.208 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.643 | 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.92 | Strasburg – R | 2.5 | 0.256 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.43 | 0.347 | 0.333 | 0.93 | Santiago – L | 3.3 | 0.373 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.602 | 0.251 | 0.299 | 1.05 | Dickey – R | 4.9 | 0.224 |
- John Buck just isn’t the guy I want to use tonight. Even with his homer in the last week, he still is not hitting well and faces Hamels who Buck has really struggled against going 2 for 25 with 10 strikeouts, granted the 2 were homers.
- Kendrys Morales has been dealing with a back problem that has appears to have affected his hitting. His OPS in the last 7 days is terrible and he has lacked a big game to boost his fantasy value. He is 1 for 14 lifetime against Colon and has not homered in the month of June. Just look elsewhere.
- It is almost as if someone is trying to hold the Padres down. As soon as they go on a nice winning streak and get back into contention, players start dropping. Gyorko and Quentin are down, and Everth Cabrera just joined them. Those 3 all gave San Diego a pop in the middle of their lineup, and without them it looks a bit barren. Kershaw should have no problem mowing this lineup down, and since Chase Headley is still struggling mightily he makes a bad play tonight.
- I do not necessarily think that Paul Goldschmidt is a terrible play, per se, I just think that there are much better options out there around the same price point, for example, Chris Davis. If I want to go cheaper, I would look to Ryan Howard as well. Goldschmidt has been better against right handers this year, but Cueto is still a solid starter and should be able to keep him in the park. One interesting note is that Goldy has actually hit the ball better away from Chase Field this year.
- Just do not use Alexei today. The White Sox are doing terrible, and now they have to face Jeremy Guthrie who has completely stymied them in his last few meetings with the Southsiders. So much so, that Alexei Ramirez has 3 hits in 33 attempts off of Guthrie. Ramirez doesn’t get you any upside either as he doesn’t have much power.
- Uh oh. The report is that Yoenis Cespedes hamstring may have tugged a bit in the last game. This is not good as he is still having issues with the hamstring and not able to play the field. I do not trust him right now with this injury issue and it doesn’t help that he is facing Iwakuma today who has really found his niche this year.
- Where oh where has your power gone Dayan Viciedo? I am almost ready to give up on you and am avoiding you like the plague today against Guthrie who as I mentioned above has owned the White Sox. The upside for Viciedo today is really low, so even though he is cheap I don’t want him.
- I always hate trying to use Rockies players away from Coors Field. On sites that do not add in park factors, their salaries get a bit boosted due to playing there. Without Tulowitzki in the lineup, the Rockies do not look as formidable as they did before. Nolan Arenado is a nice cheap option when playing at Coors, but at Nationals park against Strasburg, I am going to stay away from him and all of the Rockies today.
- Alex Gordon has not homered since May 9th and appears to be regressing a bit from last year even hitting at the top of the Royals lineup consistently. Hector Santiago has not been great but has not allowed a home run against a left hander yet this year. When looking for an option that can get you 2 homers to win a GPP, Alex Gordon is not it.
- Matt Wieters consistently is worse against right handers than left handers, so I am always wary about using him against righties. He is not a terrible option against Dickey tonight, but I would rather use his catching counterpart in Arencibia tonight or whoever is catching for the Dodgers.