Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 3rd
Kind of a short night tonight and not much BVP to go off of so most of the plays are hot hitters and right/left matchups. It is kind of interesting with no real Aces but some really bad pitchers taking the hill tonight.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.096 | 0.302 | 0.297 | 0.96 | Saunders – L | 5.57 | 0.357 |
| Jason Castro | 0.947 | 0.347 | 0.351 | 0.97 | Blanton – R | 5.94 | 0.313 |
| Domonic Brown | 1.779 | 0.279 | 0.376 | 1.12 | Koehler – R | 3.22 | 0.269 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.112 | 0.345 | 0.428 | 0.97 | Arroyo – R | 3.75 | 0.365 |
| Chase Headley | 0.464 | 0.288 | 0.323 | 0.9 | Capuano – L | 5.45 | 0.196 |
| Scott Van Slyke | 0.728 | 0.241 | 0.382 | 0.9 | Stults – L | 3.86 | 0.294 |
| Nick Franklin | 0.969 | 0.154 | 0.413 | 0.96 | Danks – L | 5.4 | 0.25 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1.166 | 0.378 | 0.367 | 0.95 | Burnett – R | 2.72 | 0.319 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.902 | 0.318 | 0.366 | 1.06 | Bedard – L | 5.32 | 0.231 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.762 | 0.25 | 0.311 | 1.06 | Bedard – L | 5.32 | 0.188 |
- Dayan Viciedo has been absolutely terrible recently, and his price should have dropped as such. If there is anything that can cure his woes it is Joe Saunders. Saunders has been good at home but I still do not trust him overall and Viciedo destroys left handers.
- A Houston player is making a regular play which is incredible. Jason Castro is on fire and is facing Joe Blanton who just is not that good. The Astros have been owning the Angels in this series and are on a nice streak. I would not rule out an Astros stack today.
- Unless Domonic Brown price is as much as Miguel Cabrera, I would not think about sitting him today. This guy is just out of control and connecting with everything right now.
- Troy Tulowitzki is destroying right handers this year and is the one shortstop you want in your lineup if you can afford him. Against Arroyo he is 5 for 9 with 2 homers and has been hitting well in the past 7 days. As long as he does not get the day off he will produce big numbers.
- Chase Headley has been pretty bad so far and should be extremely cheap across the board, especially on sites with sharp salaries. I think he has a nice matchup tonight with Capuano who he has hit a homer off of in their brief meetings. Headley makes a nice 3b option, but only if you can get him for cheap.
- Because of all of the injuries to the Dodgers, Scott Van Slyke is getting regular playing time, and has been destroying left handers in the process. Stults had a nice game the last time out but that is more of a fluke than reality. Van Slyke is going to be cheap and should be batting near the middle of the order, and he brings a bit of power with his bargain price.
- In Nick Franklin brief history in the majors he is already outperforming Dustin Ackley home run totals in the whole year. Franklin makes a nice option at 2nd base tonight against John Danks who was beaten up by the Cubs the last time out.
- Aside from one game against Washington, Freddie Freeman has been the leagues hottest hitter outside of Domonic Brown, but he is not getting much press for almost having 6+ multi hit games in a row. While AJ Burnett is not the best matchup, he makes a solid play at first base and as long as the guys ahead of him get on, he will knock them in.
- While Mark Trumbo average against left handers is not that great, he has been crushing home runs off them with regularity. Trumbo is another guy whose bat is hot and I don’t think these Angels want to lose 4 straight to Houston. Bedard is just not good and even thought the Angels are struggling I still like them to light up Bedard today.
- Same as with Trumbo, I think the Angels get to Bedard today. The price on Albert Pujols is really low and I do not believe that we have seen the last of him producing at a big time level.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Wells | 0.318 | 0.25 | 0.316 | 0.96 | Masterson – R | 3.07 | 0.227 |
| Justin Upton | 0.398 | 0.308 | 0.378 | 0.87 | Burnett – R | 2.72 | 0.262 |
| Norichika Aoki | 0.426 | 0.299 | 0.337 | 1.06 | Milone – L | 4.04 | 0.333 |
| Jon Jay | 0.22 | 0.288 | 0.294 | 0.97 | Cahill – R | 2.88 | 0.267 |
| Wilin Rosario | 0.32 | 0.283 | 0.318 | 0.97 | Arroyo – R | 3.75 | 0.26 |
| Freddy Galvis | 0.648 | 0.273 | 0.303 | 0.98 | Koehler – R | 3.22 | 0.259 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.5 | 0.307 | 0.286 | 0.96 | Saunders – L | 5.57 | 0.35 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 0.311 | 0.333 | 0.314 | 0.96 | Masterson – R | 3.07 | 0.348 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.462 | 0.282 | 0.3 | 0.99 | Stults – L | 3.86 | 0.238 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.482 | 0.303 | 0.341 | 0.87 | Medlen – R | 3.48 | 0.282 |
- So much for the Yankees fill-ins taking care of business as they have managed to score hardly any runs in the last week. Vernon Wells is a big part of that struggle boat and his .318 OPS in the last 7 days is not nice. Wells is 2 for 19 off of Masterson in his career, so the stars are not lining up for him tonight.
- So much for Justin Upton hot start, he has cooled to the point where he is now below his career averages in most everything except home runs. He is facing AJ Burnett and am really not fond of his matchup even though he has had limited BVP success. I think the cold hand wins out in their matchup and Burnett is able to strike him out multiple times.
- Norichika Aoki is another guy who is really cold, and is always the only lefty in the Brewers lineup. Today he faces Tommy Milone who has not allowed a home run against a left hander all season. Aoki could get some benefit from the rest of the lineup hitting, but I do not like his chances against Milone by himself.
- Cahill could be one of the best starters going today, so even with the hot Cardinals bats I would stay away from Jon Jay. He has been dropped in the order due to his struggles and is really not having any luck against either right or left handers. There are much better matchups for outfielders today at his price.
- I am sick of waiting for Wilin Rosario to break out of this slump, and am going to stop wishing for it to happen and just start avoiding him. When it looks like he has a great matchup, he has been struggling, and has done nothing of note in a while. You could find a much better matchup at catcher other than Rosario vs Arroyo today.
- With Utley on the shelf, Freddy Galvis has been getting the reps at 2nd base and is usually a nice bargain play. Today, not so much as he has to face Tom Koehler who has actually been fairly effective this year. Galvis had a couple of nice games to raise his price to where you do not want to use him unless you are stacking Phillies.
- Alexei Ramirez has a bad wOBA even with his BABIP being right around average, which tells us that he really has no power whatsoever. He is a nice filler at shortstop if you want a couple of singles, but if you are looking for the upside guy for GPPs, I would never put Alexei on my team. He is 6 for 20 against Saunders in their career, but all 6 hits are singles, and he has been struggling lately.
- Welcome back Kevin Youkilis! Now you get to face Justin Masterson who has learned how to pitch and pitch consistently this year. With the Yankees lineup scuffling and trying to find anything that will score them some runs, I am going to fade Youk today as he does not strike me as the high upside guy I would want in a GPP.
- Andre Ethier is in the same boat for me as Wilin Rosario. Ethier has had plenty of chances in the last week to make his value and continues to disappoint. He is ice cold and has no protection now in this Dodgers lineup. I would look at Van Slyke as a cheaper option over Ethier today against the lefty Stults.
- Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates almost get the award for worst offense in the majors over the past week, but luckily the Yankees are also playing baseball. McCutchen has been terrible while the Pirates are on this stretch and against Medlen today I would not think of using any of them even with Medlen’s injury.