Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 1st
Last night was insane, and it had some of the highest scores I have seen in a while as batters just kept crushing home runs everywhere. There are a bunch more good matchups tonight so the hot hitting could very well continue. Maybe if I use a picture of Wells with the Blue Jays, he won’t get the day off.
It should be noted that I have been using the RotoGrinders Park Factors numbers previously, and just recently it was changed to only this season’s numbers which are a small sample as of now, so the numbers may be a bit different than they have been in the past.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Wells | 0.838 | 0.296 | 0.39 | 1 | Bedard – L | 7.98 | 0.342 |
| David Ortiz | 1.542 | 0.556 | 0.593 | 0.97 | Buehrle – L | 6.35 | 0.273 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1.223 | 0.402 | 0.375 | 1.09 | Buehrle – L | 6.35 | 0.4 |
| Nelson Cruz | 1.185 | 0.348 | 0.388 | 0.99 | Sale – L | 3.65 | 0.419 |
| Adam Dunn | 1.342 | 0.346 | 0.378 | 1.05 | Tepesch – R | 2.53 | 0.157 |
| Matt Joyce | 1.198 | 0.229 | 0.32 | 0.86 | Mendoza – R | 7.88 | 0.254 |
| Nate McLouth | 1.506 | 0.373 | 0.419 | 1 | Harang – R | 11.37 | 0.373 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.58 | 0.369 | 0.378 | 0.93 | Lincecum – R | 3.64 | 0.314 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.748 | 0.284 | 0.318 | 0.97 | Nicasio – R | 4.62 | 0.231 |
| Yonder Alonso | 1.133 | 0.325 | 0.344 | 3.92 | Feldman – R | 4.24 | 0.309 |
- Vernon Wells has actually been very good for the Yankees in helping them bridge the gap until their regulars return. He hits better against left handers, and gets Bedard who has been awful. Wells should be able to post another nice game.
- David Ortiz is just out of his mind at this point. He is raking against left handers or right handers, so I wouldn’t worry about the left on left matchup here, especially since his 1.039 OPS over 61 at bats says that he can hit Buehrle.
- Dustin Pedroia is another Red Sox player who I would look at today, I may be looking at stacking or mini stacking Red Sox against the inept Buehrle. Pedroia doesn’t have the extra base hits against Buehrle but has been locked in lately.
- Nelson Cruz homered again last night, and again he gets to face a left hander. I wouldn’t worry that it is Sale, just because of how Cruz has been batting. Keep using him until he cools off.
- Adam Dunn has quietly started the home run train, hitting 3 in his last 6 games. He should be extremely cheap everywhere and has a great chance to knock one out of Rangers Ballpark tonight against Tepesch.
- Matt Joyce is only playing against right handers, but is succeeding against them as seen by his homer last night. He gets Luis Mendoza here who is garbage and he should be batting at the top of the order.
- Nate McLouth has been lights out for Baltimore recently, and has a monster 1.506 OPS over the last week. I wouldn’t worry too much about his bad BVP against Harang, as those at bats were a while ago and Harang has gotten worse while McLouth has gotten better(!?). Vegas is really low on Harang as Baltimore is big favorites away today, so runs could be in order.
- Paul Goldschmidt has the award for best BVP of the day. He is 8 for 14 off of Lincecum with 5 home runs and a 2.303 OPS. Normally he crushes left handers but it looks like he’s got Lincecum’s number.
- Andre Ethier didn’t get the chance to start last night, but he will tonight especially against Nicasio. Ethier is 7 fro 11 against Nicasio and loves hitting at home, so look for him to have a nice game. He is pretty cheap on most sites as well.
- The winds aren’t exactly blowing out at Wrigley today but Yonder Alonso still may be a nice sleeper. Scott Feldman hasn’t looked too good and Alonso homered yesterday possibly indicating that his power may be returning. He has been effective, just hasn’t hit many homers recently.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Lawrie | 0.95 | 0.257 | 0.268 | 1.09 | Buchholz – R | 1.19 | 0.206 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.486 | 0.227 | 0.284 | 0.93 | Zimmermann – R | 1.86 | 0.15 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.126 | 0.163 | 0.216 | 1 | Maholm – L | 3.41 | 0.143 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.462 | 0.236 | 0.243 | 1.03 | Lincecum – R | 3.64 | 0.175 |
| BJ Upton | 0.274 | 0.175 | 0.222 | 0.93 | Zimmermann – R | 1.86 | 0.145 |
| Martin Prado | 0.291 | 0.214 | 0.27 | 0.93 | Lincecum – R | 3.64 | 0.232 |
| Travis Hafner | 1.037 | 0.349 | 0.46 | 1.04 | Bedard – L | 7.98 | 0.214 |
| David Murphy | 0.295 | 0.189 | 0.232 | 1.05 | Sale – L | 3.65 | 0.212 |
| Dustin Ackley | 0.931 | 0.295 | 0.255 | 1 | Chen – L | 2.77 | 0.111 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.815 | 0.4 | 0.364 | 1.09 | Buehrle – L | 6.35 | 0.304 |
- Brett Lawrie is starting to get it together but he will have trouble today against Buchholz who is pitching the best of his career. Lawrie is 1 for 10 lifetime off Buchholz.
- Dan Uggla batting average is downright Uggly. He hasn’t done much at all to start the season, and Jordan Zimmermann isn’t going to let him change that. Uggla has been completely incompetent against right handers this season striking out in almost half of his at bats.
- Adam LaRoche is another guy who is having a terrible season. He is currently sporting an OPS over the last 7 days of .126 which is absurd. I wouldn’t touch him today unless he was free.
- Miguel Montero has been on this list for a while, and will stay there as long as he keep struggling. He hasn’t fared well against Lincecum either, going 9 for 50 in his sample.
- BJ Upton is ice cold as well, in fact he’s looked just as bad as Dan Uggla this year. with all of Atlanta’s good hitters, Uggla and Upton are top 10 in strikeouts.
- Martin Prado has been horrible as well recently. I would look elsewhere as Lincecum was effective in his last start and has held Prado to a .690 OPS over 14 at bats.
- With all of the good matchups today, it was somewhat hard to get a bunch of guys whose team won’t be putting up runs. If I am going to avoid someone on the Yankees, it will be Hafner who is up against Bedard and is 5 for 16 with 8 strikeouts against him. Almost all of Hafner’s stats come against right handers so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle today.
- David Murphy is literally the same as yesterday except he is hitting against a better pitcher today. Murphy has been doing nothing this season and usually only bats against right handers, but will likely play tonight against the left handed Sale.
- Dustin Ackley has been getting on base but the one thing he doesn’t give you is any sort of power. Most all of his hits are singles and his low wOBA indicates that. Here he bats against Chen who could own him as Ackley is really struggling against lefties this season.
- Another guy who I would be looking at sitting if I’m trying a mini stack somewhere is Mike Napoli. While I do think the Red Sox will score runs, and Napoli could be in the middle of it, I do think he has a good chance to do poorly as he hasn’t homered in a while. In fact, all of his home runs this season have come off of right handers, and he is facing a left hander tonight.