Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 24th
Another Friday in Daily Fantasy sports, so that means there are big tournaments and qualifiers everywhere. There are some really enticing pitching matchups today and some others that you really want to avoid. And then there is Miguel Cabrera.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kipnis | 0.819 | 0.29 | 0.334 | 1.02 | Lackey – R | 3.31 | 0.239 |
| Matt Joyce | 1.154 | 0.25 | 0.359 | 1 | Phelps – R | 3.83 | 0.286 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.876 | 0.3 | 0.326 | 1 | Hernandez – R | 5.24 | 0.286 |
| Alex Rios | 1.214 | 0.319 | 0.396 | 0.87 | Koehler – R | 2.82 | 0.314 |
| Billy Butler | 0.581 | 0.292 | 0.342 | 0.94 | Vargas – L | 3.55 | 0.238 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.916 | 0.209 | 0.313 | 1.1 | Bedard – L | 6 | 0.25 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.583 | 0.283 | 0.293 | 1.02 | Masterson – R | 2.83 | 0.254 |
| Erick Aybar | 0.673 | 0.28 | 0.272 | 0.94 | Mendoza – R | 5.5 | 0.306 |
| Manny Machado | 0.71 | 0.367 | 0.382 | 1.08 | Nolin – L | 0 | 0.246 |
| Allen Craig | 0.902 | 0.355 | 0.343 | 0.9 | Capuano – L | 4.84 | 0.303 |
- Jason Kipnis was well on his way to being a top 3 fantasy option at 2nd base until he faced the Tigers who completely stymied him in their 2 game series. Luckily, he now is in Fenway Park and has a nice shot to heat up again. He is always a threat to steal bases and loves to face right handers, so it is lucky he faces Lackey.
- Matt Joyce should be cleared to play today against the Yankees, and luckily for him he gets a right hander right off the bat in Phelps. Joyce is really killing right handers this year and even in Tropicana should be able to make his value as he is cheap and hitting at the top of the order.
- On the flip side of the Rays/Yankees game tonight, Curtis Granderson is back and finally hit a home run last game. Look for him to continue that tonight against the right handed Hernandez who he has accumulated a .436 average and 1.419 OPS in 46 plate appearances even though those are older.
- One guy who is having a really nice season very quietly is Alex Rios. He has 10 homers this season and is still hitting over .300 at this point. His wOBA is steadily around .400, and his reverse splits where he hits right handers better than left is going to help him today against Koehler. Koehler has been good this season, but has never been great over his short career so a regression sometime is in order for him.
- Someone like Billy Butler could really help you on sites like Draftstreet where they have a very sharp salary structure. Butler has been super cold so his price has dropped, however he has a dream matchup to break out of his slump against Jason vargas who he has destroyed in their short history. Butler is 8 for 16 with 3 home runs posting a monster 1.829 OPS in that time. He is a top tier option tonight even though he is struggling.
- Another guy who is struggling a bit but could have a monster game is Yoenis Cespedes. He gets to face Erik Bedard tonight who just is not good. Bedard is consistently giving up runs and hits and is not staying deep into games. Cespedes won’t be a top salary option but he could produce as a middle price guy.
- I am going to gamble today with Jacoby Ellsbury just because his price is so cheap everywhere because of his terrible start to the season. He has proven over the last few year that he is a solid player and is bound to break out of this slump at some point, so there will be value to be had on him. Although Masterson has been good, if you are going to hit against him you want a left hander, and Ellsbury brings that to the table along with stolen bases, so I think there is a good chance Jacoby can make his value.
- The shortstop pool is a bit thin today, so the value play looks like it could be Erick Aybar. He has been leading off recently for the Angels and is still dirt cheap everywhere. I am saving money on shortstop today because there really is not one with an enviable matchup, and Aybar could have his way with Mendoza on the mound.
- Manny Machado is a solid option at 3rd today as the Orioles get to face newcomer Sean Nolin. Nolin has been very solid in the minors for the past 2 years, but the majors is something entirely different. Machado is here to stay and is having a great season and could teach the youngster a bit in his first start.
- Allen Craig has been pretty consistent in the past few weeks keeping his average around .300, and has scored a run in 5 of 6 games. Today he faces Chris Capuano who he has destroyed in their limited meetings . Craig is 5 for 8 with 2 doubles and a homer, so he is in for a nice night tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Willingham | 0.961 | 0.253 | 0.362 | 1.12 | Sanchez – R | 2.77 | 0.198 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.792 | 0.377 | 0.372 | 1 | Masterson – R | 2.83 | 0.311 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.384 | 0.311 | 0.296 | 0.98 | Arroyo – R | 3.28 | 0.296 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.616 | 0.32 | 0.301 | 0.98 | Arroyo – R | 3.28 | 0.225 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 0.451 | 0.222 | 0.291 | 0.96 | Burnett – R | 2.57 | 0.231 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.11 | 0.345 | 0.426 | 0.95 | Lincecum – R | 4.7 | 0.378 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.241 | 0.333 | 0.346 | 0.99 | Lynn – R | 3.27 | 0.283 |
| Ruben Tejada | 0.377 | 0.241 | 0.251 | 0.95 | Medlen – R | 3.02 | 0.183 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.497 | 0.216 | 0.244 | 0.9 | Stults – L | 4.05 | 0.238 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.588 | 0.287 | 0.375 | 1 | Lackey – R | 3.31 | 0.243 |
- Josh Willingham has been nice but could be in for some struggles tonight against Sanchez. Willingham is only 2 for 12 off of Sanchez in his career, and traditionally struggles against right handers although he is hitting them for power this year. The interesting thing to note is that although Comerica Park has the top right handed park factor this year, it has one of the lowerst home run %, and most of those are from Miguel Cabrera.
- Dustin Pedroia could be in for some struggles today as he has to face Masterson who he is 3 for 16 off of in his career with no extra base hits. Pedroia struggles against Masterson and is not hot right now so I do not like him for an upside play at 2nd base tonight, especially in Fenway.
- Starlin Castro is in the pits and I would not get near him as his hitting stinks like those shoes you got wet and continued to wear even though you knew they were going to smell horrible once they dried. He is just terrible right now and facing Arroyo who he is 5 for 20 off of is not the best situation either.
- Alfonso Soriano is in the same boat as Castro, actually the entire Cubs lineup has been garbage recently. The thing about Soriano is that he is terrible against right handers and is 10 for 50 career off of Arroyo. This just does not look good for the Northsiders today.
- I was one of the biggest proponents of Yuniesky Betancourt when he was on his tear to start the season, but right now I want nothing to do with him. I am basically disowning him at this point and his 4 for 26 BVP with a .308 OPS off of Burnett. He almost has a worse OPS over the last 7 days as it has sunk under .500.
- I am not going to completely rule out Troy Tulowitzki today as he is the best shortstop on the market today, but he is also the most expensive and my gut is telling me that you can find shortstop production somewhere else and not spend on him. He is in AT&T park, and has to face Lincecum who he has been below average against in their 52 meetings posting a .265 batting average and .716 OPS. Like I said, he is not totally off the board, but I like cheaper options today.
- Adrian Gonzalez is lost without a map up at the plate right now. He only has 2 hits in the last 7 days and both of those are singles. He does face a right hander, but over his career he is pretty neutral against both sides. Unless you can get him at a super bargain on some sharp pricing sites, I am waiting this one out before picking him.
- I actually felt bad for Ruben Tejada typing these numbers in, as he has no shot to have a big game against Medlen tonight. Tejada has been awful recently and is not hitting right handers, and there is talk of him getting demoted. He has already been demoted out of the leadoff role, so don’t even think about using him.
- Miguel Montero season has been a disaster, worse than that Gigli movie that got some of the worst ratings of all time. He is almost to the point where he is going to lose his job to Wil Nieves. When a struggling hitter starts pressing, the problems are exacerbated, so I do not think that Montero is in line for a turnaround. Not only that but he has to face a left hander in Stults today who was very effective last time out.
- I do not like Mark Reynolds prospects of hitting a home run today, and that is basically the only way he produces. He is going to have a hard time getting one of those balls off of the Green Monster, and that does not take into effect the fact that he is really struggling to hit the ball. He is also only 1 for 8 off of Lackey with 6 strikeouts in their short meetings.