Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 25th
Good morning grinders, as we get into Memorial Day weekend, we have a ton of day games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday so make sure to look early into which tournaments will have overlay, and what qualifiers to get into. At this point, only the Cle/Bos game looks in danger, so by putting Pedroia up as the picture, I am probably guaranteeing a rainout.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Arencibia | 0.571 | 0.273 | 0.308 | 1.08 | Garcia – R | 4.84 | 0.232 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.792 | 0.377 | 0.372 | 1 | Kazmir – L | 6.35 | 0.375 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.032 | 0.391 | 0.419 | 0.98 | Nuno – L | 1.13 | 0.346 |
| Chris Davis | 1.356 | 0.369 | 0.459 | 1.04 | Dickey – R | 4.5 | 0.358 |
| Manny Machado | 0.71 | 0.367 | 0.382 | 1.04 | Dickey – R | 4.5 | 0.383 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.357 | 0.301 | 0.353 | 1.12 | Fiers – R | 5.93 | 0.292 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.619 | 0.36 | 0.292 | 0.9 | Gast – L | 4.76 | 0.308 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 1.167 | 0.339 | 0.349 | 0.94 | Miley – L | 3.67 | 0.268 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.941 | 0.327 | 0.309 | 0.88 | Haren – R | 5.54 | 0.273 |
| Jean Segura | 0.86 | 0.383 | 0.407 | 1.12 | Locke – L | 2.73 | 0.349 |
- Yes, JP Arencibia had a horrible game last night, but one thing is certain; that game will not raise his salary. He is cheap everywhere, especially on Draftstreet, and should be even cheaper after last night’s stinker. He only homers against right handers and has homered previously against Garcia who just is not dominant.
- Dustin Pedroia gets the award for the best BVP of the day against Kazmir where he has gone 17 for 33 with a 1.398 and only 1 strikeout. He just owns Kazmir, and Scott has not been good except for one start this year. Pedroia should be in all of your lineups.
- Evan Longoria is having a really nice season and is probably the best 3rd baseman out there today and I have no problem paying for his salary with him hitting against Nuno. He had a 16 game hitting streak coming into last game and that was ended, so look for him to get another one started.
- Chris Davis is heating up again. He is sporting a 1.3+ OPS in his last 7 games and is destroying right handed pitching. RA Dickey seems to have gotten it together, but Davis is one of the hottest hitters on the planet. If Dickey’s knuckleball is not moving, Davis has the potential for a monster game.
- Staying with the Orioles theme, this team is hot and Manny Machado is having a really nice season. One thing interesting about Machado is that he is hitting right handers better than left handers, so like stated above, if Dickey has no movement, watch out for these Orioles.
- Andrew McCutchen has destroyed Mike Fiers in their short history going 5 for 9 off of Fiers with 3 homers. Cutch is on fire as well going for a 1.357 OPS in his last 7. He looks like a great play today, so get him in your lineups and watch him feast.
- Even though Matt Kemp has not had the breakout everyone is expecting, like I have said before, he is still hitting left handers extremely well and gets to face the very green John Gast who was not that great last time out. The Dodgers are in a free fall and they need Kemp to step up here and I think he does in a big way.
- Jedd Gyorko is becoming my favorite 2nd base value play against poor pitchers. He is hitting for power and doing good things for fantasy owners. Today he faces Wade Miley in a hitter’s park, and in his one game against Miley previously this year he went 3 for 3 so he may have his number.
- One guy I love to pick on is Dan Haren this year, and this game is no different. Even in Nationals park, I think the Phillies have a good shot at getting to him, and especially Ryan Howard who is pretty cheap and destroys right handed pitching.
- The best pitcher on the target list is Jeff Locke, and that really surprises me. Locke has given up all 5 of his home runs this season to right handers, and now has to face the all-but-one right handed lineup in the Brewers in Miller Park. This does not bode well for him, but I like Jean Segura chances at having a nice game. Segura is a stud in the making and has power and speed at the shortstop position, so do not sleep on him.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.883 | 0.377 | 0.352 | 1 | Kazmir – L | 6.35 | 0.129 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.865 | 0.314 | 0.328 | 1 | Lester – L | 3.15 | 0.267 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.36 | 0.263 | 0.334 | 0.95 | Hernandez – R | 2.07 | 0.213 |
| Todd Helton | 0 | 0.231 | 0.283 | 0.95 | Zito – L | 3.91 | 0.333 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 0.876 | 0.217 | 0.201 | 0.87 | Nolasco – R | 3.96 | 0.198 |
| Erick Aybar | 0.673 | 0.28 | 0.272 | 1 | Guthrie – R | 3.49 | 0.306 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.563 | 0.356 | 0.426 | 1.01 | Wood – L | 2.24 | 0.146 |
| Michael Saunders | 0.272 | 0.288 | 0.308 | 1.01 | Holland – L | 3.3 | 0.238 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.11 | 0.345 | 0.426 | 0.95 | Zito – L | 3.91 | 0.25 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.637 | 0.264 | 0.261 | 1 | Moore – L | 2.2 | 0.333 |
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a switch hitter who should just stop switch hitting. He has no skill whatsoever at hitting left handed pitching, and I think my 60mph fastball could get Jarrod out. He probably will not play, but if he does make sure you don’t use him. Not only that, but he is 0 for 7 with 6 strikeouts against Kazmir.
- Asdrubal Cabrera is another guy who has a terrible history against a left handed pitcher, and with Lester’s resurgence this season, Cabrera may not be the best play as he is 4 for 17 off of Lester with 8 strikeouts.
- Nelson Cruz, the guy who looked like a must play earlier in the year has completely cooled off and looks like someone you do not want a part of this year. He is really struggling against right handers and now has to face King Felix in Safeco, including the fact that he is really cold hitting at a .360 OPS in the last 7 days.
- I mentioned this before, but when these two old guys get together, always pick Barry Zito over Todd Helton. Helton has been invisible, and just plain terrible recently as he has 12 at bats in the last 7 days with zip, zero, zilch hits. It does not help that the Rockies are in AT&T for this series either.
- Jeff Keppinger is like the toy you really wanted as a kid, and when you finally got it you bragged about it like it was going to fit in great with your other toys, until you played it. Once you play with the toy, you realize that it is terrible but you have invested so much into it you cannot admit you are wrong. I think this is what the White Sox are doing with Keppinger as he has been double-A bad this year and I don’t see him turning that around here especially against Nolasco who had the best outing of his season last time out.
- Erick Aybar appears to be the walking wounded and continues to play, but even though he is cheap at shortstop, he does not look like a good option today. He is 4 for 25 with only one extra base hit and 0 walks against Guthrie in his career, and Guthrie has actually been pretty good this year.
- Shin-Soo Choo has been very cold in the last week and it does not look like it will change here. He is terrible against left handed pitching and now faces Wood who has been solid. He is definitely not worth the price you will pay for him today, so don’t even think about using him.
- Michael Saunders is the coldest hitter out there right now. He had a .272 OPS over the last 7 days and then struck out twice in 4 at bats last night. He shows no signs of turning it around, especially against Derek Holland and may need a few days off to get his head straight.
- I am looking at the Rockies history against Barry Zito and am not seeing anything that I like. Troy Tulowitzki is only 7 for 47 off of Zito with a .397 OPS in those at-bats. Tulo is really struggling against left handed pitching which is strange, and I would rather go with a cheaper shortstop today.
- The Yankees lose Curtis Granderson (again and it is probably my fault for using him as the profile picture), and now Ichiro Suzuki will go back into a outfield role. The Yankees match up a ton better with yesterday’s pitcher, Hernandez, than they do with the lefty Matt Moore, and I would really shy away from their lefties today.