Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 29th
The 3 day weekend did us a favor and gave us a Wednesday which has 14 night games, and plenty of action. There are some weather issues in Minnesota but everything else is looking good to go. The matchup in Colorado looks incredible, so the decision to fade or not to fade will be a big one tonight.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilin Rosario | 0.628 | 0.306 | 0.344 | 1.06 | Bedard – L | 5.68 | 0.293 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.654 | 0.299 | 0.328 | 1 | Mendoza – R | 5.05 | 0.307 |
| Kelly Johnson | 1.647 | 0.333 | 0.394 | 0.99 | Koehler – R | 3.18 | 0.299 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.85 | 0.361 | 0.345 | 0.95 | Rogers – R | 4.56 | 0.278 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.905 | 0.255 | 0.318 | 1.09 | Capuano – L | 5.6 | 0.225 |
| Erick Aybar | 0.809 | 0.282 | 0.274 | 1.09 | Capuano – L | 5.6 | 0.172 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.85 | 0.286 | 0.357 | 1.01 | McCarthy – R | 4.36 | 0.295 |
| Carlos Quentin | 1.386 | 0.221 | 0.346 | 0.89 | Saunders – L | 6.09 | 0.12 |
| Michael Morse | 0.711 | 0.278 | 0.337 | 0.89 | Stults – L | 4.22 | 0.339 |
| Eric Young Jr | 0.523 | 0.314 | 0.303 | 1.06 | Bedard – L | 5.68 | 0.286 |
- Wilin Rosario completely obliterated left handed pitching last year, and has not done exactly that this year, however he gets the perfect shot at it against Bedard today. Gonzalez and Tulowitzki are great plays as usual, but it is Rosario who I think could be the biggest bang for your buck today.
- Carlos Beltran has found the fountain of youth this year and is hitting like he did back when he wasn’t getting senior discounts at Wendy’s. Beltran is a danger to homer every night, and has been money against right handed pitching this year. He is facing Mendoza who is always asking to be lit up.
- On those sites that are slow to update salaries, Kelly Johnson is becoming somewhat of a must play on this heater that he is on. Johnson has a ridiculous OPS in his last 7 and the signs are not there for him to slow down tonight as he gets to face Koehler tonight in Marlins park who he should be able to beat up on again. Keep using him if he is still dirt cheap.
- Freddie Freeman gets a solid matchup today against Esmil Rogers for Toronto. For all of the good pitching that Toronto seemed to have, to be using Ramon Ortiz and Esmil Rogers in their rotation seems a bit ridiculous. Anyways, Rogers is not good, and is terrible against left handers, so Freeman and McCann should be able to have a field day.
- When I first looked at Albert Pujols BVP today I had to do a double take because it is that absurd. He is 21 for 38 with 5 homers and a 1.675 OPS, and 38 at bats is not a small sample. He absolutely destroys Capuano and I will not be leaving him off of a roster today.
- Erick Aybar might be a good option if you are looking to go cheap at shortstop today. He is still leading off for the Angels, and will have Pujols batting behind him in the lineup, so if he gets on a few runs are possible. Why not stop at Aybar and Pujols, and grab Trout and Trumbo as well.
- Adrian Beltre likes hitting against right handers more than he likes hitting against lefties, so to see him have success off of McCarthy would not be a surprise. He has a .419 average and a 1.134 OPS in 31 career at bats, so the history is there. Beltre is in a hitter’s park tonight and is batting in a good lineup so he should be producing.
- Carlos Quentin is back playing regularly, and has really found the bat in the last week. He has over a 1.3 OPS in his last 7 and now gets to face Saunders who is due to implode at any time. Quentin should be a cheap option today and has a really nice shot to go deep.
- Michael Morse has kind of fallen off the radar since his breakout beginning of the season but he still brings great power and lefty crushing power to the park. He gets to play against Stults who is not exactly and ace, and even though Seattle has been struggling, he could be a nice GPP option where no one will have him.
- Eric Young Jr is just another great play on the Rockies, and if you do not have the money for CarGo or Tulo or other top priced options, try Eric Young. He does not have any notable right left splits, but he will be hitting against Bedard who negates all splits with how bad he is.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 0.872 | 0.288 | 0.342 | 1.01 | McCarthy – R | 4.36 | 0.235 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.508 | 0.351 | 0.282 | 1.09 | Weaver – R | 4.91 | 0.244 |
| Starling Marte | 0.564 | 0.369 | 0.45 | 0.9 | Sanchez – R | 2.38 | 0.276 |
| Torii Hunter | 0.949 | 0.368 | 0.344 | 0.97 | Burnett – R | 3.3 | 0.318 |
| Alcides Escobar | 0.491 | 0.265 | 0.264 | 0.87 | Lynn – R | 2.95 | 0.227 |
| Michael Saunders | 0.516 | 0.278 | 0.304 | 1.1 | Stults – L | 4.22 | 0.217 |
| Chris Young | 0.788 | 0.2 | 0.285 | 0.96 | Lincecum – R | 4.75 | 0.212 |
| Vernon Wells | 0.23 | 0.264 | 0.332 | 0.97 | Hefner – R | 4.76 | 0.24 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.907 | 0.295 | 0.34 | 1.03 | Masterson – R | 3.2 | 0.27 |
| Ruben Tejada | 0.44 | 0.236 | 0.242 | 0.97 | Phelps – R | 3.96 | 0.172 |
- Even though Nelson Cruz is in Rangers Ballpark today I am going to try to avoid him on my teams. He is struggling a bit against right handers this year and has no success against McCarthy in their careers going 1 for 17 with a .118 OPS. He is also striking out at an absurd rate recently, with 9 KO in his last 3 games.
- Who thought Matt Kemp was going to return to last season’s form? I am seriously doubting that it will happen this year, and today does not look like the day especially with Jered Weaver returning from the DL and hitting against a right hander. Kemp is 3 for 12 with no extra base hits against Weaver and he has struck out 5 times.
- If Tigers/Pirates can end in a pitching duel with Porcello and Gomez pitching, how do you think the matchup between Sanchez and Burnett will end? It looks like another barnburner, and Starling Marte has really been struggling to hit for power lately. This is a pretty ugly matchup for him.
- Keeping with the Tigers and Pirates theme, Torii Hunter is looking like he could struggle tonight as well. Yes, he does have a nice hitting streak going but Burnett is really good at home and he has owned the Tigers hitters in his career, especially Hunter who is 6 for 29 with a .647 OPS.
- This is a complete disaster for the Royals, and it is just getting worse. None of the hitters are hitting, including Alcides Escobar. The right handers are going to have a hard time today against Lynn who has been very good and is pitching in Busch which is murder to right handers this year. I just do not like any Royals tonight especially Escobar.
- I was high on Michael Saunders as a cheap power outfield option when he was on his home run binge, but it looks like he has regressed back to his terrible form where he does nothing with the bat. His matchup does not look too bad, but with the way the Mariners are going right now I would not want to touch him at all no matter his price.
- I remember when Chris Young was a reserve on the All-Star team, and that seems a bit ridiculous at this point. His splits matchup does not look too bad on paper, but I would not use him against Lincecum in AT&T as that is where Timmy pitches the best. Young also has a brutal history against Tim going 8 for 51 with 17 strikeouts.
- Vernon Wells has stopped producing and with his .230 OPS in his last 7 games is not someone I want to take tonight, even against the right handed Hefner.
- Brandon Phillips has been solid, but I am going to avoid him today just because of Masterson. When Masterson is on, he is shutting down teams and if he keeps improving like this I think he could be a pitcher to throw a no-hitter in one of the next few years just because of how dominant he is when he is on.
- I think it is embarrassing that the Mets still have Ruben Tejada leading off for them. They would be better served by putting David Wright up there, because Tejada is not getting on base and not hitting at all. He has a .440 OPS in the last 7 days and a .428 OPS this season against right handers. Phelps should be able to strike him out a couple of times today.