Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 4th
I hope all of the qualifiers went well for you Grinders yesterday, and if you didn’t win, hopefully you placed and still made some money. Saturday’s games feature afternoon and night games, so perfect time to sit down, relax, and enjoy a whole day of baseball.
It should be noted that I have been using the RotoGrinders Park Factors numbers previously, and just recently it was changed to only this season’s numbers which are a small sample as of now, so the numbers may be a bit different than they have been in the past. As always, make sure you check starting lineups and weather before plugging these guys in.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 1.32 | 0.455 | 0.504 | 1.14 | Correia – R | 2.23 | 0.374 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.432 | 0.241 | 0.301 | 0.91 | Kazmir – L | 8.64 | 0.3 |
| Matt Joyce | 1.264 | 0.216 | 0.326 | 1.02 | Garland – R | 4.65 | 0.258 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.443 | 0.377 | 0.377 | 0.91 | Richard – L | 7.94 | 0.226 |
| Cody Ross | 0.611 | 0.308 | 0.289 | 0.91 | Richard – L | 7.94 | 0.313 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.567 | 0.345 | 0.36 | 0.97 | Dickey – R | 4.5 | 0.353 |
| Nate McLouth | 1.273 | 0.347 | 0.311 | 1.07 | Hanson – R | 3.91 | 0.355 |
| Ian Kinsler | 1.059 | 0.33 | 0.408 | 0.99 | Lackey – R | 2.61 | 0.377 |
| David Ortiz | 1.406 | 0.533 | 0.581 | 1.05 | Ogando – R | 3.38 | 0.6 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.943 | 0.288 | 0.326 | 1.13 | Fernandez – R | 4.5 | 0.267 |
- Not only is Carlos Santana the hottest hitter right now, he’s been the hottest hitter since the start of the season. Any place where he is still underpriced I’m going to be seeking him out to play the catcher position for me as Correia has been ok but his stats are above his talent level at the moment.
- Trevor Plouffe bad start can be attributed to him only facing right handers, who he is pretty terrible against. Scott Kazmir is not so great at pitching right now so Plouffe has a really good chance to go deep on him for what should be a cheap salary.
- Matt Joyce sits against lefties and hits against righties and he has 4 home runs in the last 6 games against righties so it is lucky that he is facing Garland today. Oh, did I mention he is in Coors Field? This is a pretty solid situation given that he is still at a discount on most places.
- Paul Goldschmidt has been struggling against left handers, but still has 2 homers against them. He is definitely a better hitter against lefties and shouldn’t have any trouble knocking Clayton Richard around today.
- Same with Cody Ross, as he is known for knocking around lefties. He should be in the middle of the lineup and the right handers on Arizona make a nice sneaky mini stack play against the prone to implode Richard.
- I am very impressed with what Kyle Seager has been able to do this year and the stats he has been able to put up. He has a really nice batting average against right handers and gets to face Dickey who has been terrible at the Rogers center this year.
- Nate McLouth is really on a tear. I am not sure where all of this power has come from, and almost all have come from right handers one of who he gets to face today. I am not a big fan of Tommy Hanson and think McLouth could have a nice game leading off for Baltimore.
- Ian Kinsler is really expensive, but he appears to be the best option at 2nd base today. He is in Rangers Ballpark so the over/under is going to be high, and he has the BVP to boot. He is 14 for 32 off of Lackey with 3 home runs and only 1 strikeout. If you can afford him, he won’t disappoint.
- David Ortiz is actually succeeding over half the time so far on the season against right handers. This is a pretty insane run he is on and he has a good chance at continuing it against Ogando and in Rangers Ballpark.
- Domonic Brown has been showing some power lately, homering twice in four games. Brown is kind of coming into his own as he has really been hitting well in the last week. I think he may go deep again off of Fernandez in Citizens Bank tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Dunn | 1.112 | 0.132 | 0.262 | 0.86 | Guthrie – R | 3.06 | 0.149 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.666 | 0.333 | 0.311 | 0.95 | Guthrie – R | 3.06 | 0.288 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.982 | 0.298 | 0.349 | 1.05 | Samardzija – R | 3.35 | 0.275 |
| Ryan Braun | 0.894 | 0.351 | 0.396 | 1.04 | Wainwright – R | 2.03 | 0.292 |
| Rickie Weeks | 0.66 | 0.286 | 0.309 | 1.04 | Wainwright – R | 2.03 | 0.227 |
| Joe Mauer | 0.1 | 0.338 | 0.334 | 1.14 | Kazmir – L | 8.64 | 0.273 |
| Travis Hafner | 1.037 | 0.333 | 0.446 | 1.04 | Colon – R | 3.38 | 0.34 |
| Brett Lawrie | 1.012 | 0.256 | 0.302 | 1.09 | Iwakuma – R | 1.67 | 0.22 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.268 | 0.167 | 0.218 | 0.94 | Locke – L | 2.83 | 0.111 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.685 | 0.342 | 0.284 | 0.96 | Vogelsong – R | 2.35 | 0.215 |
- Yesterday I didn’t like Dunn, and it is the same situation just after a rainout, so here is what I said yesterday, “Adam Dunn has hit a few home runs recently, but like I said in an earlier article, he is useless if he doesn’t homer. Dunn has 19 at bats against Guthrie, and Guthrie hasn’t allowed Dunn to take him deep yet. In fact, 10 of those were strikeouts, so I would not expect much from Dunn in Kauffman tonight.
- I will also note the same about Alexei Ramirez in that he is 3 for 30 off Guthrie as well, in fact, none of the White Sox have ever had much success against him surprisingly.
- The Reds offense has been sputtering as of late, and that is hampering Phillips’ fantasy value. Phillips has been hitting well, but he is only 2 for 16 lifetime against Samardzija who has really been pitching well to start the year. Unless the winds are blowing out I think you can pass on BP today.
- Ryan Braun is going to be close to max salary on most sites so you are going to want to take him when he has 2-3 HR upside. This isn’t one of those days as Wainwright is just really good. Wainwright being good is probably why Braun’s BVP is 9 for 49 with only 2 home runs off the right hander. There are better ways to spend your salary dollar.
- Keeping with the Brewers theme, it looks as if Wainwright has owned the Brewers in his career as none of them are particularly effective. The Brewers lineup is almost all right handed, including Rickie Weeks who is 7 for 40 off Wainwright with 0 home runs.
- It seems like just yesterday Joe Mauer was hitting everything in sight, and now he couldn’t hit anything if it was lobbed to him. Kazmir is pretty bad, but unless he is super cheap he is a pass.
- Travis Hafner has kept the Yankees afloat while they wait to get their stars back, but it looks to me as if he is cooling off. He has only had 2 big games in his last 10 and his overall stats are slipping. Plus, he is against Colon who he doesn’t have a hit off of in 15 attempts.
- Guess who is leading the league in WHIP? Yes, you got it, Hisashi Iwakuma! Yes, Iwakuma has actually been really good this year and I would think of sitting most of the guys on Toronto as this team is lost right now. Lawrie himself is 0 for 5 with 4 KO in a small sample.
- At this point, Adam LaRoche is really dragging Washington down with his pathetic performace for the last couple of weeks. He can’t hit anything right now and I wouldn’t expect him to start against the left handed Locke who has actually pitched well to open the season.
- I have been under the impression that Matt Kemp has been getting it together and starting to break out of his slump but the .685 OPS in his last 7 games is telling me otherwise. Anyway, he is up against a right hander today who he has been putrid off of this year and is average against all other years.