Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 6th
Most of the games today have pretty low over/unders so today could end up with some pretty low scores across the board. Hitting on that guy that gets 2 HRs or goes 4/4 is going to be paramount as in a low scoring day, that will be the big difference.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kipnis | 1.039 | 0.274 | 0.28 | 1.11 | Parker – R | 7.36 | 0.224 |
| David Ortiz | 1.17 | 0.462 | 0.543 | 0.95 | Worley – R | 7.22 | 0.515 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 0.143 | 0.29 | 0.326 | 0.95 | Buehrle – L | 6.43 | 0.28 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.694 | 0.368 | 0.38 | 0.89 | Capuano – L | 9.64 | 0.219 |
| Cody Ross | 0.494 | 0.295 | 0.278 | 0.89 | Capuano – L | 9.64 | 0.368 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.937 | 0.29 | 0.338 | 0.93 | Maholm – L | 3.08 | 0.324 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1.192 | 0.313 | 0.348 | 1.03 | Feldman – R | 3.31 | 0.291 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | 0.696 | 0.268 | 0.291 | 1.11 | Parker – R | 7.36 | 0.281 |
| Jose Bautista | 0.895 | 0.197 | 0.356 | 0.95 | Hellickson – R | 4.71 | 0.192 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.687 | 0.319 | 0.316 | 0.95 | Worley – R | 7.22 | 0.314 |
- Jason Kipnis has had a really rough start to the season but is starting to produce more for Cleveland in the last 2 weeks. I wouldn’t take him against a left hander, but in this case he gets Jarrod Parker who has been bad recently at home where he has been good.
- Even though David Ortiz is really expensive, I don’t think you can ignore him today. He is going to be a part of a bunch of Red Sox runs and could be the guy who kills you if you fade him. You should be able to find a bargain at pitcher today to afford a mini Red Sox stack.
- To be able to play the high priced guys you’re going to need to find some nice value, and Sean Rodriguez can save you some salary dollars. He usually only plays against left handers, so the .143 OPS in his last 7 is only made up of 2 games; before that he was on fire. He usually bats in the middle of the Tampa lineup and is batting at home where he has done most of his damage this year.
- Chris Capuano is back for the walking wounded Dodgers pitching staff, and now he gets to face his nemesis Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is 9 for 12 lifetime off Capuano with 2 homers and 3 doubles. Capuano was terrible first start and could be in for some issues here against likely a heavy right handed lineup for Arizona.
- If you are going to play Goldschmidt, you might as well pair him with Cody Ross who is sure to be cheap as well. Ross has been struggling but consistently mashes left handers and should have some nice RBI opportunities today along with being pretty cheap.
- Brandon Phillips makes the best option at 2nd today with Jason Kipnis if you can afford him. With how Cincinnati’s lefties have struggled against Maholm in their careers, Phillips may be tasked with taking his decent BVP against Malholm and trying to win for Cincinnati (.353 BA). One thing to watch out for is that he left yesterday’s game a bit early but thinks that he can play so always check the lineup to see if he is in, as well as the weather which looks a bit ominous early today.
- If you’re looking for a cheap option at 1st, Mitch Moreland could be your guy. He will bring the power upside without the price, and the Rangers have one of the better matchups of the day against their former pitcher in Feldman.
- The 3rd base pool tonight isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence from me so I will go cheap today with Lonnie Chisenhall. He has done all of his damage this year off of right handers, and is facing Parker who has been awful against left handers this year. Cleveland’s offense has just been on fire recently and Chisenhall could surprise some people today.
- With all of the potential value plays tonight, it won’t be hard to spend on a high priced guy like Jose Bautista. Las year Bautista actually had more success against right handers than left so facing a righty here isn’t a concern. He is 4 for 11 off Hellickson in his career and Hellickson is coming off of a terrible start. With the Toronto lineup, Jose is going to see a some nice pitches to hit.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is another guy who is pretty expensive, but should produce a huge game tonight. He has done most of his damage against right handers and is always a threat to steal a bag or 2. He has multiple ways to get fantasy points and his upside is pretty large.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Kemp | 0.653 | 0.345 | 0.29 | 0.89 | Cahill – R | 2.84 | 0.237 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.988 | 0.34 | 0.364 | 0.96 | Lee – L | 3.06 | 0.303 |
| Chase Utley | 0.603 | 0.261 | 0.343 | 0.96 | Bumgarner – L | 1.55 | 0.154 |
| Joey Votto | 1.165 | 0.4 | 0.414 | 0.98 | Maholm – L | 3.08 | 0.316 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.853 | 0.391 | 0.44 | 0.98 | Maholm – L | 3.08 | 0.194 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.803 | 0.283 | 0.394 | 1.01 | Buchholz – R | 1.01 | 0.2 |
| Ryan Howard | 1 | 0.325 | 0.333 | 0.96 | Bumgarner – L | 1.55 | 0.154 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.659 | 0.222 | 0.279 | 0.95 | Hellickson – R | 1.67 | 0.188 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.296 | 0.95 | Buchholz – R | 1.01 | 0.263 |
| BJ Upton | 0.472 | 0.197 | 0.228 | 0.93 | Arroyo – R | 3.95 | 0.215 |
- As I said before, Matt Kemp is really struggling against right handers, and gets Cahill today who has been solid in his last 4 outings. Kemp is in a pitchers park today, and the interesting thing I am seeing is his BABIP is .345 but his wOBA is .290 indicating that his hit balls are falling for base hits, but he isn’t getting much power at this time. The stats aren’t indicating a massive turnaround in fantasy value.
- It is remarkable at how many pitcher’s parks are in play today. The Phillies and the Giants have 2 solid pitchers on the mound in what should be a pitching duel, keeping the scores low and Pablo Sandoval off the bases. Sandoval has been hitting well, but all of his damage has come against right handers and not left handers.
- Chase Utley has cooled since his red hot start, and now has to face a left hander in AT&T. He is really strugglign against left handers this year and Bumgarner has been the Giants best pitcher. I don’t like really any of the Phillies here especially Utley.
- Joey Votto is still one of the best 1st basemen out there, but I am going to fade him tonight against Maholm. Maholm has been death to left handers this year and has never allowed lefties to homer off of him, so I’m not too high on Votto’s upside in this matchup, especially for what you are paying for him for his 3 for 22 BVP with 0 homers and a .422 OPS.
- Shin-Soo Choo is a left hander who cannot hit left handers. These at-bats tonight for Choo should be interesting against as Maholm has crushed left handers this year. Choo appears to be a waste of salary tonight.
- If you read this article most days, you know that I don’t like Willingham against a right hander. Well, tonight is no difference, especially with Buchholz on the mound. Whether Buchholz is using a spit ball or not, he’s having an incredible year and his movement is off the charts. He is pitching like an Ace and should shut down Minnesota.
- If you are going to sit Utley you have to sit Ryan Howard as well. Both of these guys are bad against left handers and like I noted above, Bumgarner has been great. Plus he is pitching in a pitcher’s park. Ok, this is getting redundant.
- These Toronto Blue Jays are pretty much the Miami Marlins of last year. On paper it looks like they should be good, but they aren’t. They are really struggling to score runs which is hurting the value of guys like Brett Lawrie who is batting at the top of the lineup recently. I’m going to avoid him until we see some positives from Toronto.
- Yes, Morneau is better against right handers than left handers, but he has just been so bad recently it doesn’t matter. He is also playing Buchholz who I wouldn’t take anyone against right now. Just ignore the Twins.
- It doesn’t matter who BJ Upton is against, he has been trash. He’s striking out a ton, not hitting for power, and not hitting for average either. His season wOBA is one of the worst in the league at .228. He needs some sort of slumpbuster because it doesn’t matter who he has been up against, he isn’t getting it done.