Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 11th
It is still somewhat eerie typing September 11th into the text boxes today, even 12 years after the fact. We will all never forget what happened then and I am sure it had a big impact on all of us. Today has some balanced games with equal over/unders so we could have a dispersed player pool tonight as there are hardy any “must plays”.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Valencia | 1.154 | 0.329 | 0.404 | 0.99 | Pettitte – L | 4.03 | 0.36 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.346 | 0.314 | 0.324 | 1.09 | Feldman – R | 3.54 | 0.248 |
| Rajai Davis | 0.948 | 0.317 | 0.307 | 1.08 | Wilson – L | 3.42 | 0.343 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.97 | 0.289 | 0.316 | 1.06 | Dickey – R | 4.29 | 0.263 |
| Matt den Dekker | 0.781 | 0.389 | 0.312 | 0.89 | Haren – R | 5.23 | 0.296 |
| Brandon Moss | 0.958 | 0.299 | 0.359 | 1.02 | Pelfrey – R | 4.97 | 0.258 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.659 | 0.336 | 0.362 | 0.91 | Estrada – R | 4.49 | 0.311 |
| Brad Miller | 0.587 | 0.288 | 0.317 | 0.94 | Peacock – R | 5.62 | 0.257 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.473 | 0.303 | 0.352 | 0.94 | Peacock – R | 5.62 | 0.292 |
| Omar Infante | 0.695 | 0.333 | 0.345 | 0.92 | Quintana – L | 3.7 | 0.293 |
- I was a big fan of Danny Valencia on Monday against the lefty Sabathia and that did not work out, however I will be targeting him again tonight. As noted before, he is destroying left handed pitching and Pettitte is a little past his prime. Valencia is hitting them at a 1.052 OPS and I cannot see how Showalter does not fit him in the lineup today.
- Ignore how poor Curtis Granderson has been in the last week and there is nothing to dislike about his matchup. He faces a right hander in Feldman who he has smashed 3 homers off in 14 at bats to go along with a .429 average and 1.714 OPS. Granderson is hitting in arguably the easiest park this year for left handers and althought Feldman has been very solid lately, I think a regression is coming. Grandy’s price is going to be low due to his recent struggles but do not let that scare you away.
- Apparently Rajai Davis has forgone stealing bases to hit for power now as he has 3 homers in the last 8 days. Davis is actually hitting left handers at a .343 average and .913 OPS which are very solid numbers to go with his SB potential. He is hitting in the Rogers Centre, and although his BVP does not stray from his season numbers against lefties, he does have 3 SB showing he will try to steal even against the lefty Wilson.
- Josh Hamilton is heating up. Ok, maybe I won’t go that far, but tonight sure looks like he could keep his last 2 games going. He managed to pick apart Buehrle yesterday, so a matchup with RA Dickey tonight looks even better on paper. Hamilton crushes right handers and is hitting in one of the most hitter friendly parks this year. It is very hard to trust him, but I think he could continue his success today.
- Today’s off the wall play tonight is Matt den Dekker. He got the call up for the depleted Mets and has been ok since coming up as he has only hit against right handers. The thing that makes me like him today is not his .296 average against righties this year, it is that Haren is awful. Once you think he has gotten it back together he proves himself to be a terrible pitcher once again. Den Dekker in the minors had a ridiculous HR rate, a good ISO, and stole a ton of bases. He is the sneakiest play tonight with some major upside.
- Brandon Moss is back after getting his wisdom teeth out, and gets to face Pelfrey tonight. Pelfrey has allowed 9 homers to left handers this year and Moss has hit 22 against righties. Pelfrey is just not good with his 1.5 WHIP, and the Athletics should be able to own him tonight.
- Yadier Molina has been struggling, but he gets the perfect pitcher to help pull him out of his slump. Estrada comes to town, and while he has been good this year, he has been terrible against Molina in their careers allowing 12 hits on 21 at bats for a 1.381 OPS. Molina is a great catcher option for double ups especially if his price has dropped.
- The Mariners were crushed by the Astros last night, and by the looks of things they did not like it at all. I like them to bounce back strong as they have a ton of lefties who do work against right handed pitching, one of them being Brad Miller. Miller has hit all of his homers against right handers and Peacock has allowed lefties to hit at a .920 OPS against him. Miller has not been great lately but makes a solid SS play tonight.
- I am putting Kyle Seager up here as well because I believe he snaps out of his funk against righties tonight. Seager has really been bad against right handers lately causing his average and OPS against them to fall but he still hits them well and Peacock should give him plenty to hit. I do not expect that he will be very much owned, and when Peacock is gone he will feast on the horrible Astros pen.
- There are a couple of good 2nd basemen out there but I like Omar Infante as a lesser owned option. Infante hits lefties for whatever power he has as he has hit over half his homers against them in less than half the at-bats, and he has been hitting for average as well almost hitting .300. Quintana is good but the Tiger’s offense is better and they really need this game. There is no bad spot for Infante to hit in the lineup either so he is somewhat matchup proof as well.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Loney | 0.784 | 0.334 | 0.344 | 1 | Dempster – R | 4.79 | 0.301 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.536 | 0.362 | 0.331 | 0.95 | Minor – L | 3.06 | 0.194 |
| Justin Upton | 0.426 | 0.316 | 0.355 | 0.91 | Fernandez – R | 2.23 | 0.255 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.295 | 0.265 | 0.332 | 1.01 | Sanchez – R | 2.61 | 0.228 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.629 | 0.289 | 0.311 | 0.99 | Gray – R | 2.51 | 0.231 |
| Gerardo Parra | 0.554 | 0.303 | 0.318 | 0.96 | Ryu – L | 3.02 | 0.205 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1.086 | 0.316 | 0.351 | 0.96 | Wheeler – R | 3.38 | 0.274 |
| Will Venable | 0.754 | 0.313 | 0.349 | 1.04 | Lee – L | 3.01 | 0.277 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.967 | 0.26 | 0.329 | 0.99 | Pettitte – L | 4.03 | 0.253 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.558 | 0.323 | 0.344 | 0.95 | Cobb – R | 2.99 | 0.278 |
- I am not sure what to think about Dempster. He gets shelled one night and pitches well the next night. The one thing his stats say is that he is very effective against left handed hitters holding them to a .709 OPS and very few homers. James Loney does not destroy right handed pitching, in fact he is about equal against both sides. Use Loney with caution tonight as he is 2 for 21 off Dumpster.
- This is a bad spot to use Christian Yelich tonight. He is struggling against left handers hitting only a .549 OPS against them and is against a pitcher who dominates left handers. Yelich has been struggling lately mightily and his BABIP is at an unsustainable rate right now. I cannot see anything good about this.
- Justin Upton expects to play today but why risk it? He has been horrible recently, falling back into his summer swoon along with being terrible against right handers. He faces possibly the ROY in Fernandez today and this game has the lowest over/under of all the games on the docket. Just like with Yelich, there is no upside here.
- My goodness has Adam Dunn been terrible lately. He has 3 total hits this month, only one going for a homer, opposed to 14 strikeouts. He is facing a strikeout pitcher tonight in Sanchez who Dunn has never homered against and has struck out 11 times in 27 at bats against. On sites where strikeouts are minutes, this seems like fantasy suicide.
- Trevor Plouffe has been a solid GPP play recently, but tonight he has to face off against super prospect Sonny Gray who has been dynamic so far this season. Plouffe struggles against right handers and Gray has held righties to a .467 OPS in his short history. I am not too keen on any Twins today as Gray is going deep into games and has increased his GB% in the last couple of games.
- I was not a bit fan of Parra last night and he did not have a very big game. I am avoiding him again tonight against Ryu, who is well known for his reverse splits but still only allows a .737 OPS to left handers and has a sparkling 2.07 ERA at home. Parra cannot hit lefties and it would not surprise me if he sat tonight.
- Ryan Zimmerman did nothing last night, and I am expecting the same tonight against Wheeler. Zimmerman has had 6 at bats against him and has made an out on every one. While that is a small sample it should be noted that Wheeler has owned right handers giving up only a .639 OPS and he has been very consistent in going almost 7 every game as long as he keeps his control. I think he does today unlike last game and the Nationals struggle.
- Another guy I featured last night, Will Venable had a solid matchup and did not do much. Tonight he is on the opposite end of the spectrum facing off against the left handed Cliff Lee who has allowed lefties to hit only .588. I hate using guys against Cliff Lee because he can post a CG whenever he wants really taking out the value of any of the hitters against him. Lee has a terrific matchup against the Padres and I am avoiding that whole team.
- Normally I would be all about JJ Hardy against a left hander in Camden, but I am shying away from this a little bit. Hardy has not dominated left handed pitching in the last few years, and he is only 3 for 20 against Pettitte. I am not a fan of Pettitte but if I am stacking Orioles I might look elsewhere for a SS.
- Dustin Pedroia is now leading off without Ellsbury in the lineup and I am not sure if he is so comfortable there. He has not done much in the last week and now has to face Alex Cobb, who other than a 4 ER outing last time out, has been solid since returning from the DL. Cobb has held right handers to a .623 OPS and is pitching at home where he is undefeated this year.