Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 24th
The last big Tuesday of the season is upon us and we have some really stackable offenses tonight in the Red Sox in Coors, the Tigers vs Diamond, and the Rangers vs Peacock. All three teams have something still to play for so I expect a ton of runs from at least one of them.
Park factors probably will not change from here to the end as they should have a decent one season sample.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 0.676 | 0.337 | 0.421 | 1.09 | Redmond – R | 3.82 | 0.32 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.862 | 0.342 | 0.364 | 0.98 | Santiago – L | 3.53 | 0.309 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.506 | 0.299 | 0.333 | 1.04 | Kuroda – R | 3.17 | 0.286 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.826 | 0.276 | 0.321 | 1.04 | Vargas – L | 4.28 | 0.285 |
| Mike Carp | 0.517 | 0.384 | 0.384 | 0.99 | Chatwood – R | 3.36 | 0.302 |
| Stephen Drew | 1.014 | 0.317 | 0.336 | 0.99 | Chatwood – R | 3.36 | 0.282 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1.128 | 0.382 | 0.4 | 1.09 | Lackey – R | 3.44 | 0.35 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1 | 0.357 | 0.46 | 0.99 | Diamond – L | 5.54 | 0.377 |
| AJ Pierzynski | 0.394 | 0.29 | 0.317 | 1.02 | Peacock – R | 5.24 | 0.273 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.974 | 0.377 | 0.339 | 0.95 | Miner – R | 3.22 | 0.355 |
- The Orioles may be a little discouraged with Machado’s injury and their playoff falter, but Chris Davis can always take his anger out on the ball. Even if the Orioles will not make the playoffs, Davis still is going to want to hit as many homers as he can and he has a perfect opportunity tonight against Redmond in Camden. Redmond has been good except for allowing homers so I would only use Davis as a GPP play.
- I believe what Yan Gomes has done for the Indians is still a bit underappreciated. He is raking against left handed pitching and seems to come up with the big hit when they need it. Gomes faces off against Santiago today and the Indians need to win again. I like Gomes as a cheap catcher punt for double ups if he is catcher eligible.
- I love Ben Zobrist today as a 2nd base option. He hits better against right handers batting left handed like he will be today against Kuroda. The extra benefit is that he is hitting in Yankee Stadium and may get to take advantage of the short porch. Zobrist as well is 5 for 10 with 2 homers and an impressive 2.083 OPS against Kuroda.
- I am not sure if Yoenis Cespedes will play because of his shoulder but if he does I like him against Vargas. He is used to playing with injury and if he is out there he is strong enough to help out the team. If he is not out there, I like any of the A’s righties against Vargas as they are on fire and that offense is very impressive right now.
- Chatwood had a random 11 strikeout game against Milwaukee almost 2 months ago but since then has failed to strike out 3 in every other game started. He did miss some time but I do not like his prospects tonight against the Red Sox in Coors. Mike Carp should be batting near the middle of the lineup and he hits right handers very well along with being cheap.
- Stephen Drew has been a bit up and down this year but one thing he is consistent at is hitting right handers well. He gets to hit against Chatwood in Coors and should be decently priced even after his solid last week. Chatwood struggles at Coors and against lefties so it should be a field day for the Red Sox.
- Michael Cuddyer has been doing work against right handers all season with a .350 average and 17 of his 20 homers. Lackey has struggled away from Fenway and has also struggled against righties giving up a .771 OPS almost .150 higher than lefties along with double the homers. Cuddyer is also 7 for 22 against Lackey with 4 homers from his Twins days, so I am high on him here.
- Miguel Cabrera price has dropped to where he is actually playable on sites now. Jim Leyland has said he will continue to play him until the Tigers lock up the division, so expect him in the lineup tonight. He has a great matchup against Diamond who he is 10 for 21 off of and any time you can use Miggy in a plus matchup for not top salary is a bonus.
- The Rangers showed up last night as I thought they would, however I profiled the wrong guy as Rios was the one doing the work and not Beltre. Tonight I like the Rangers against and Pierzynski is looking like a solid play. He should be cheap due to the slump but he could be busting out of it with a nice game last night. He faces Peacock who has allowed a .938 OPS to left handed batters this year.
- Christian Yelich has really came on in the last week and is hitting really well. If he is low salary, feel free to roster him as he faces Zach Miner today who I do not believe in at all. Yelich is becoming a Harper or Choo where he is absolutely putrid against lefties but always in play against righties.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.596 | 0.269 | 0.3 | 0.92 | Jimenez – R | 3.39 | 0.228 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.959 | 0.326 | 0.385 | 1.04 | Moore – L | 3.34 | 0.293 |
| Buster Posey | 0.205 | 0.311 | 0.356 | 0.94 | Ryu – L | 3.03 | 0.327 |
| Will Venable | 0.417 | 0.312 | 0.34 | 1.01 | Miley – L | 3.75 | 0.272 |
| Martin Prado | 0.961 | 0.286 | 0.326 | 0.91 | Ross – R | 3.24 | 0.277 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.681 | 0.31 | 0.377 | 1.02 | Wacha – R | 3.21 | 0.31 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.306 | 0.99 | Fister – R | 3.71 | 0.231 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.553 | 0.317 | 0.296 | 0.99 | Darvish – R | 2.81 | 0.284 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.703 | 0.339 | 0.393 | 1.03 | Niese – L | 3.81 | 0.21 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.389 | 0.332 | 0.327 | 0.99 | Diamond – L | 5.54 | 0.2 |
- This has been a season to forget for Paul Konerko, as he has posted almost career lows in nearly every category. I really do not like him tonight against Ubaldo who has pitched extremely well for the Indians and looks to help them to another win and closer to that wild card spot. Konerko cannot hit right handers this year hitting at only a .598 mark so this inspires no confidence.
- To get Robinson Cano you are going to have to pay top dollar at 2nd base for a guy who is hitting against a really good left hander and does not hit left handers all that well along with being 5 fro 17 against said left hander. You could on the other hand have Zobrist for a bit cheaper who has a better BVP and about the same numbers against right handers who he is facing tonight.
- The Buster Posey versus a left hander plug and play should be put on hold tonight. Sure he has always been a monster at hitting left handers but he never really took off and had that streak of homers against them leading to barely over a .900 OPS. Posey only has 4 homers all year against lefties, and Ryu has been solid at taming the right handers. Another thing working against Posey is his 1 for 20 mark in the last week which tells me he just wants this season to end.
- Will Venable did not play last night, so I will say fade him again tonight as well. I did not like his matchup against McCarthy, and I do not like the matchup against Miley either. Wade has figured out how to pitch and the over under on this game is very small. Venable has been struggling and has very low upside in the Padres offense.
- Another guy from this DBacks Padres game that I am leaving at the door is Martin Prado. Ross has been decent except for a couple starts, and Vegas likes him to hold the DBacks to 3 runs tonight. Prado has been a bit worse against right handers this year and even though he should be cheap I think you can find value and upside in other spots in this deep schedule.
- Bryce Harper has had a poor couple of days, and although he is facing a right hander tonight, I do not like his chances of doing well. The Nationals were just eliminated for good from playoff contention and I really do not think his mental state will be good enough to go out there and hit you a couple of home runs. I think Wacha goes out there and really takes it to the demoralized Nationals.
- Trevor Plouffe did not start but got in and got a walk last night. I still do not like his prospects tonight to do well against Fister as he struggles against right handers mightily and is 2 for 17 lifetime off of Doug.
- I do not know if anyone would actually consider Jose Altuve tonight against Darvish, but I just want to point out that Darvish has absolutely destroyed the Astros this year and seems primed to do it again. He has to be the top pitcher tonight and not to mention, Altuve is 0 for 12 against him with 5 strikeouts.
- What a big game from Shin-Soo Choo last night as he helped the Reds secure a playoff spot. Tonight he is on the opposite spectrum against Niese, a lefty who has been pretty solid recently. Niese has been good against lefties and Choo cannot hit lefties so it could be a hard spot for Cincinnati tonight.
- If you want to stack Tigers and are looking for someone to leave out, I would leave out Austin Jackson. Jackson is really struggling right now and trying to find it for the playoffs and faces a lefty tonight in Diamond who he is only 4 for 20 off of. Jackson also cannot hit left handers hitting them at a .640 OPS this year. It really is not a good spot for him.