Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 25th
One of the last solid split squad days of the year, we have plays from both night and day games for you guys today looking to get your baseball fix in. There are lots of solid matchups out there and in my opinion, lots of emotions to exploit as certain teams are playing for something and certain teams have just been eliminated.
Park factors probably will not change from here to the end as they should have a decent one season sample.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1.167 | 0.343 | 0.342 | 0.99 | Chacin – R | 3.21 | 0.327 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.632 | 0.275 | 0.324 | 1.03 | Arrieta – R | 5.06 | 0.246 |
| David DeJesus | 0.733 | 0.295 | 0.322 | 1.04 | Hughes – R | 5.07 | 0.27 |
| Chris Davis | 0.676 | 0.337 | 0.421 | 1.09 | Rogers – R | 4.52 | 0.32 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 0.82 | 0.288 | 0.346 | 0.91 | Maholm – L | 4.44 | 0.311 |
| Alex Rios | 0.849 | 0.313 | 0.333 | 0.99 | Keuchel – L | 4.99 | 0.319 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.248 | 0.338 | 0.404 | 1.09 | Peavy – R | 4.02 | 0.317 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.802 | 0.359 | 0.308 | 0.94 | Zito – L | 5.91 | 0.359 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.703 | 0.339 | 0.393 | 1.03 | Matsuzaka – R | 5.52 | 0.32 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.916 | 0.324 | 0.346 | 1.09 | Chacin – R | 3.21 | 0.279 |
- Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to start tonight, and I want him in my lineup. I am not too concerned as the Sox would not be putting him out there if he needed a few more days of rest. He faces Chacin, who has been good this season but has struggled a bit in his last 4. If Ellsbury is cheap, his upside is off the charts.
- Arrieta was solid in the last start, but in Wrigley Field I like Pedro Alvarez to work some big fly magic today. Alvarez was money in day games last year, and he seems to like hitting in Wrigley Field. Arrieta may be pitching above his ability right now and the Pirates need a win tonight.
- What a shrewd pickup by the Rays David DeJesus was. He has always been a good hitter against right handers and the Rays love the right/left split guys. DeJesus should start against Hughes who he is 5 for 8 with a homer off of and a 1.875 OPS. I love DeJesus in this one as he should be hitting at the top of the order for cheap.
- I still love Chris Davis in Camden tonight even if he only had 1 hit last night and the Orioles are done with playoff consideration. Davis is still going to try to smash homers and is going to take some big swings to get there so he should still make a great GPP play.
- I somewhat forgot about Jonathan Lucroy hitting for the Brewers because they have been so miserable lately, however I think he makes a solid under the radar play today. Lucroy is 6 for 11 with 2 homers off of Maholm in his career and has been making good contact lately.
- Alex Rios disappointed a lot of people last night but I like him tonight against Keuchel. Keuchel has struggled a bit against righties this year with a .814 OPS and Rios has destroyed left handed pitching and Texas needs as many runs as they can get right now.
- Troy Tulowitzki creamed a ball off of Lackey last night and I am expecting him to do the same against Peavy tonight. Tulo is hitting good against righties and lefties this year and should be able to produce in a bad position at home where he has hit to a 1.020 OPS this year.
- This is the time to use Matt Kemp. He homered last night against the Giants, and faces Zito tonight who has been downright miserable, so much so I cannot believe he is getting another start. Kemp has rocked Zito in their careers with a 24 for 58 mark so this looks like a no-brainer to me if Kemp is in.
- Shin-Soo Choo is absolutely locked in right now as he is getting hits even off left handers. If he can do that, he can dominate Dice-K who is just making some starts so that the Mets can get out of the season with their pitcher’s arms intact. Choo destroys right handers and the Reds have a ton of reasons to win here.
- Dustin Pedroia has to be loving this season. He has been a part of the Red Sox even when they dismantled the team and looked to rebuild. I am looking for him to make some noise in this game as he does not get to hit in Coors Field often and last night was pretty disappointing for the Sox. They again are one of the higher over/under teams of the night so their stackability is high even against Chacin.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Desmond | 0.732 | 0.343 | 0.347 | 0.91 | Miller – R | 3.12 | 0.285 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.586 | 0.255 | 0.322 | 1.03 | Liriano – L | 2.88 | 0.184 |
| Coco Crisp | 1.144 | 0.255 | 0.339 | 0.99 | Weaver – R | 3.36 | 0.283 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.492 | 0.304 | 0.326 | 1.04 | Price – L | 3.53 | 0.29 |
| BJ Upton | 0.1 | 0.268 | 0.254 | 0.91 | Lohse – R | 3.51 | 0.196 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.879 | 0.289 | 0.355 | 0.91 | Hand – L | 3.14 | 0.239 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.45 | 0.295 | 0.34 | 0.94 | Santana – R | 3.16 | 0.279 |
| Eric Young Jr | 0.545 | 0.301 | 0.29 | 1.03 | Latos – R | 3.23 | 0.203 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.889 | 0.346 | 0.339 | 1.03 | Straily – R | 4.08 | 0.302 |
| Adam Jones | 0.518 | 0.314 | 0.351 | 0.99 | Rogers – R | 4.52 | 0.301 |
- The Nationals looked completely defeated against Wacha last night, and against another St. Louis pitching stud looking for his 15th win I am expecting them to struggle again. I recommended sitting Harper last night and I’ll look at sitting Desmond tonight. He has not been great and Miller has been pretty solid in each game he has pitched.
- Do not even think about using Anthony Rizzo tonight, he has a terrible matchup against Liriano. Even though he is pitching at home Liriano has allowed only a .303 OPS to lefties all season and Rizzo is hitting a meager .184 against them as well. Look elsewhere for 1b production.
- Coco Crisp has had a really solid season and has had his best wOBA even with hitting with one of his worst BABIPs of his career. Crisp has been solid against righties all season but has a problem against Weaver with only 7 hits in 48 at bats and 10 strikeouts. Weaver is great against the A’s and I would expect more of that same today.
- Curtis Granderson has had a frustrating season, and if he does make the start tonight I would not expect him to do much. Grandy has not been great against lefties in his career and he has to face Price who has been very solid after a terrible start. I would really caution using Granderson at all as the Yankees are essentially out of the race.
- I just have to mention BJ Upton just because I cannot believe how terrible he is. Upton’s stats make me cringe when I look at them and I think the Rays improved by just getting him out of town. He is absolutely miserable and has not done anything recently so I am sure no one is using him, but just in case, you know.
- Other than a 4 ER outing, Brad Hand has actually been solid this season. He faces the Phillies who have a bunch of lefties who struggle against lefties, including Domonic Brown. I liked Brown at the beginning of the season to have a breakout year, and he did somewhat of that but still really did not have a good year against left handed pitching with a .239 avg and .710 OPS. I think you can find better OF production for cheaper somewhere else even against the Marlins.
- I think Kyle Seager might be getting tired. He has played a ton of games for the Mariners this year and kept up the same stats until August where he just went downhill and his average has crumbled and nothing has gone right. I would not touch him at all right now as he just does not have anything going for him especially against Santana who has the reverse splits going. Something happened to Seager, and it is not good.
- Eric Young continues to bat leadoff for the Mets and his upside continues to be limited. They are not scoring many runs these days and he is facing a right hander in Latos who usually goes deep into games. Young is a bit worse against righties than lefties so there should be a few better options out there.
- Howie Kendrick has homered in 2 straight games, but I am not jumping on the train. I like Straily to hold him down tonight as Straily has been solid against righties this year and Kendrick has been worse against them than left handers. His price is going to have rose after his 2 nice games and I would rather get a guy on the up than the down.
- I would really like to see stats for the last 20 years on teams’ next game after being eliminated from postseason play. I would hypothesize that they play under their abilities as I believe the Orioles will tonight. Adam Jones has been terrible recently and looks demoralized. I do not think he is going up there and giving it his all so I will not use him like I will use Davis who should be shooting for more homers.