Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 3rd
Just when you thought that baseball was an afterthought, we get a huge night like tonight with some big tournaments to play. I hope everyone enjoyed their labor day weekend and is ready for a long, hard rest of 2013 of grinding ahead of them. Let’s continue it going in the right direction and find some solid value out there tonight.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.738 | 0.313 | 0.346 | 1 | Chacin – R | 3.56 | 0.3 |
| Avisail Garcia | 1.142 | 0.375 | 0.333 | 0.97 | Kuroda – R | 2.89 | 0.339 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.255 | 0.272 | 0.312 | 1.04 | Martin – R | 6.39 | 0.248 |
| David Ortiz | 0.685 | 0.327 | 0.402 | 1.05 | Scherzer – R | 2.9 | 0.346 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.327 | 0.313 | 0.336 | 1.07 | Lester – L | 3.99 | 0.278 |
| Torii Hunter | 0.95 | 0.337 | 0.351 | 1.07 | Lester – L | 3.99 | 0.314 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.785 | 0.304 | 0.336 | 1.04 | Vargas – L | 3.54 | 0.243 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.674 | 0.289 | 0.323 | 1.03 | Gallardo – R | 4.39 | 0.281 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.829 | 0.338 | 0.406 | 1.09 | Nolasco – R | 3.26 | 0.319 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.212 | 0.305 | 0.359 | 1.04 | Vargas – L | 3.54 | 0.315 |
- Anyone in Coors Field who hits the ball with power is a good play but I really like Adrian Gonzalez tonight. His price is not as high as some of the top tier guys but he has a history of producing like one and his numbers against right handed pitching are very good this year. He has a nice 6-10 history off Chacin and has not struck out yet against him. Chacin is worse at home and worse against left handers as well.
- I was sad to see Avisail Garcia head off to Chicago, but as a Tigers fan I knew it needed to happen to get Iglesias. Garcia has been having a great start with the White Sox and is proving that his hitting prowess with the Tigers was all that he showed and more. He has power against righties and has shown it hitting them at an .860 OPS. I am not too scared against Kuroda as he should still be decently cheap and has been a nice option for Chicago while Kuroda has somewhat crumbled in the last 2-3 starts.
- It is time for Adam LaRoche to dig himself out of the gutter. He has been absolutely terrible lately, so I do not blame you if you feel this pick is absurd, but I think he has a solid chance to turn it around. LaRoche’s game has been home runs and he is hitting in a park which has been homer friendly to left handers while hitting against a pitcher who has allowed a homer in every game he has pitched along with a nice 1.78 WHIP. LaRoche also only hits well against righties and his salary is going to be in the pits.
- Normally I would shy away from guys hitting against Scherzer but David Ortiz seems to relish the opportunity. He is 7 for 13 with 3 homers against the righty and now gets Max at Fenway. Ortiz has an amazing BABIP for a 37 year old and is crushing right handed pitching this year. I have no idea how much he will be owned, but I think he puts together a solid game.
- I was hearing a ton of crap from the majority of Tigers fans about Victor Martinez in June when he was hitting at a .230 clip. Fast forward to September and he has played miracle worker with his average bringing it to .298 only because he is hitting the ball so well. Martinez is one of the highest floor options in baseball as he does whatever he can to get on base, is hitting great right now and is facing Lester who he has owned to a tune of 6 for 10 with a homer in their careers.
- Torii Hunter was one of my least favorite moves by the Tigers, because how could he match his last season I thought. Well, he has done a good job of that, and his OPS vs left handers is solid at .884. He has always hit left handers well and along with the rest of the Tigers, has owned Lester to a tune of 10 for 19 with a 1.211 OPS. This Tigers offense cannot be tamed for too long, and I think they get the best of Lester tonight.
- I am a big fan of Ben Zobrist tonight and I think he may be a guy who his little owned who has a solid game. There are 2 things working against him, one, that Vargas pitched a great game against the Rays, and 2, that he has struggled a bit against left handed pitching this year. I do not buy into either, as last game was Vargas’ only good game in recent memory and in Zobrist’s career he has hit very well against lefties. I will roll with him at 2nd and feel confident about it as Vargas usually pitches to contact and last game was a fluke.
- Justin Morneau better enjoy himself when he hits in places like Miller Park because hitting at PNC is no joke. Morneau has not had the start that he would have liked with the Pirates but tonight he gets Gallardo in Miller Park where he should hit his first Pirate homer. He has done well recently in the power department and has a 4 for 8 history against Gallardo, so as a not too expensive first baseman with upside, he can fit into someone’s team.
- Troy Tulowitzki was out last game due to leg soreness, so hopefully he will be in the lineup tonight in Coors. Nolasco has had a graet 2 starts, however he has pitched at Dodger Stadium in those 2 and against the Cubs in one. I am not convinced he is the ace everyone thinks he is and would not be surprised to see him surrender 5 ER tonight, 3 of them on a Tulo homer. Coors Field does weird things to good pitchers, and tonight I think Colorado and Tulo gets to Nolasco.
- Evan Longoria and the rest of the Rays have been terrible recently, but one thing I have learned that under Joe Maddon, they will always be in contention. Longo crushes left handed pitching and even though he has been horrid recently, all it has done is lower his price to a price you cannot refuse against a lefty like Vargas who pitches to contact.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Keppinger | 0.486 | 0.261 | 0.256 | 0.97 | Kuroda – R | 2.89 | 0.256 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.952 | 0.316 | 0.38 | 1.04 | Sale – L | 2.99 | 0.282 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.986 | 0.31 | 0.356 | 0.99 | Chen – L | 2.79 | 0.257 |
| Nick Franklin | 0.422 | 0.272 | 0.304 | 0.99 | Chen – L | 2.79 | 0.204 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.436 | 0.271 | 0.324 | 1.03 | Cosart – R | 1.59 | 0.207 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.775 | 0.281 | 0.31 | 0.99 | Moore – L | 3.41 | 0.168 |
| Chase Utley | 0.609 | 0.286 | 0.35 | 1.04 | Gonzalez – L | 3.56 | 0.202 |
| Jose Reyes | 0.374 | 0.303 | 0.334 | 0.99 | Miley – L | 3.55 | 0.266 |
| Gerardo Parra | 0.659 | 0.306 | 0.322 | 0.99 | Redmond – R | 4.3 | 0.297 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.641 | 0.278 | 0.331 | 0.98 | Colon – R | 2.94 | 0.253 |
- I have seen Jeff Keppinger in play more often than I have ever seen him recently and I am not sure if that is just a coincedence, but I would not use him. His numbers are garbage across the board and has been one of the worst hitters to consistently start this year. He has no upside and is not worth the value even against a struggling Kuroda.
- All it takes is a little Houston Astros to get you feeling good about your life if you are a pitcher. Sale has been money against left handers this year holding them to almost no success (.368 OPs and 0 homers), so I would not pay for Cano today. To get value out of Robbie I really do not want to use him against a stellar lefty, although I would consider trotting Soriano out there.
- After getting lit by the Nationals and Tigers, Chen bounced back with a solid game against Minnesota. The Mariners offense is in shambles right now, especially against left handed pitchers. Kyle Seager is leading the futility charge hitting only .257 and .100 points of OPS lower against lefties than righties. I am not a big fan as I think there will not be very many scoring opportunites for Seattle tonight.
- Not a good spot for Franklin tonight as he will be hitting right handed, where he is terrible against left handed pitching. Chen is also statistically better against righties this year and Franklin is in the pits right now with 2 hits in his last 24 at bats. Franklin seems to have everything working against him tonight even against a mediocre starter like Chen.
- Cosart seems to be taking a while to make people a believer however all he has done since his call up is get outs. Today he faces the inept Twins offense which is featuring Josh Willingham who is 4 for 25 in his last 25 at bats with all 4 being singles. Cosart has allowed 1 home run in all of his starts and Willingham struggles against righties, so it looks like a terrible matchup here.
- I am always a little wary of taking guys straight off the DL so I will probably be avoiding Moore in my lineups unless he is a bargain, however I will also be avoiding Josh Hamilton. It is about time for him to pack up and call it a lost season as his .518 OPS against lefties is just terrible along with only having 5 home runs against them the whole season. I do not need to tell you how bad Hamilton has been and Moore is no slouch on the mound.
- Gonzalez seems to have these games where the wheels fall off and he gives up a ton of hits, however when he is on he is on. I am not big on Philly tonight especially on Chase Utley who seems to be struggling right now. Utley cannot hit left handers and Gonzalez is good against left handed hitting, so I am favoring Gio in this matchup.
- I am not a big fan of Jose Reyes tonight especially against Miley. Miley is pitching really well and it does not appear the implosion factor is imminent for him. Reyes has been struggling as seen by his .374 OPS in the last week. What also should be noted is that a strong point, stolen bases has not been there as he has only stolen 1 base since July 27th, he isn’t walking, and is not hitting for power.
- I imagine Gerardo Parra might be used pretty frequently tonight, however I would advise against just plugging him in if he is in the top of the Arizona lineup. While he has hit well against right handers, Redmond’s strength has been getting lefties out and his stuff is pretty good. His stats are not great but aside from a 7 ER outing against Houston, he actually has been an effective innings eater for Toronto. He does struggle away, however so we shall see.
- Another great matchup in Oakland tonight as the division rivals face off for the division lead. Fatolo takes the mound and his smug look is going to be making Rangers angry all night. Fatolo has held Kinsler to 2 for 17 in his career and Kinsler is struggling with the bat right now, so Colon will shut him down today. Just for fun, type in Fatolo in your Google search box and hit space and see what comes up.