Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 6th
I am sure everyone was excited to get the NFL season started off last night with Manning’s 7 TDs but we still have baseball to be played and it is a big Friday on tap with some solid values. Before you get your college football and NFL games in, make sure to sweat out some MLB tonight.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Gomes | 0.69 | 0.273 | 0.328 | 1.08 | Pettitte – L | 4.01 | 0.21 |
| Brandon Phillips | 1.084 | 0.284 | 0.318 | 0.99 | Capuano – L | 4.41 | 0.264 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.3 | 0.321 | 0.346 | 0.91 | Leake – R | 3.51 | 0.302 |
| Rajai Davis | 1.18 | 0.318 | 0.304 | 1.05 | Pelfrey – R | 4.86 | 0.215 |
| Craig Gentry | 1.136 | 0.312 | 0.332 | 1.07 | Wilson – L | 3.35 | 0.272 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.922 | 0.324 | 0.371 | 0.97 | Keuchel – L | 4.77 | 0.329 |
| Chris Carter | 0.876 | 0.304 | 0.338 | 1.04 | Griffin – R | 3.84 | 0.223 |
| Joey Votto | 0.45 | 0.357 | 0.394 | 1.03 | Capuano – L | 4.41 | 0.254 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 0.765 | 0.274 | 0.259 | 0.97 | Haren – R | 5.02 | 0.233 |
| Chase Headley | 1.833 | 0.316 | 0.313 | 1.09 | Nicasio – R | 4.82 | 0.24 |
- Jonny Gomes was brought in to be a lefty killer like his previous seasons but has not amounted to that so far. I am not too worried about his numbers this year as his career numbers say he is a much better hitter against lefties. Putting him more in play today is the struggles that Pettitte has against right handers giving up an .816 OPS against them. Pettitte is due for a collapse and the Red Sox should provide.
- Brandon Phillips has been playing well the last few weeks and really hitting the ball well. He has always hit left handers for power and faces Capuano tonight who is a bit of a mystery when he takes the mound. Vegas loves the Reds tonight and Phillips is 14 for 35 against Capuano in their careers. If Phillips is playing, he is questionable, then plug him in.
- I am not a huge fan of Leake, and have always thought he was ready to collapse, and in the last few starts he has been pretty terrible. He has a 4.08 ERA at home where he has given up 13 homers. Andre Ethier is mashing right now and if he is in the lineup I would feel good about him doing something positive today as he crushes right handers and is 5 for 9 with 2 homers off Leake in his career.
- Whoa, Rajai Davis, where has this power come from. He hit homers in back to back games which I will venture out to say is the first time in his career. The guy who is dubbed “autosteal” now has a different part to his game to worry about. Pelfrey has just been bad all around and even though he has thrown a couple of good starts recently I am not trusting him tonight against the Blue Jays lineup. I can see Davis putting up a large game tonight with a couple of steals against the righty.
- A cheap option to look out for on Texas would be Craig Gentry tonight as they face the left handed Wilson. Gentry hits lefties well and has been batting at the top of the order. He likes to steal against left handers as well, so you cannot forget about him on the basepaths either.
- Josh Donaldson numbers against lefties this year are pretty incredible. He is hitting them at a 1.019 OPS and has 9 homers against them, so if he is going to homer, its probably against a left hander. Tonight he goes up against the left handed Keuchel and the Athletics can do some damage against those lefties. I feel good using him as my 3rd baseman today against a pitcher who is known to implode.
- Chris Carter gets to face his old team tonight, and faces the homer-happy AJ Griffin. He may have not had success against him earlier this year, but he hits a ton of homers off righties and Griffin gives up a ton of homers to righties, 19 to be exact. Carter is going to be cheap and I like him as a GPP upside play tonight.
- Be very careful with this pick, because I would only pick Joey Votto if his price is extremely low like on Draftstreet. Votto is in probably the worst slump of his career and is hitting against a lefty who has not allowed lefties to do anything this year. Now, normally that would be bad but I still think Votto can be productive as he has one of the best eyes in baseball and is a very good hitter all around. Vegas loves the Reds today, so we could see an early chase of Capuano and then Votto can go to work on the pen.
- If you are interested in punting the shortstop position today, Adeiny Hechavarria could be your guy. He is actually hitting well in the past couple weeks and making solid contact and hitting a grand slam in the last game. He is min priced and plays against Haren who was removed after 2.2 innings of 7 ER ball last time. Haren allows righties to hit at a .830 clip and if Hechavarria can get on, he can score a couple of runs as well.
- Chase Headley returned to the Padres lineup and immediately hit a homer. Could this be the turnaround where he starts producing again? I want to use him when his price is cheap if it is, and tonight looks like a solid spot. He is hitting against Nicasio who has been garbage away from Coors with a 5.43 ERA along with Headley hitting Nicasio in their careers 6 for 9 with 2 homers. Headley is going to be cheap everywhere and can produce tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | 1.022 | 0.38 | 0.382 | 0.9 | Doubront – L | 3.89 | 0.279 |
| Daniel Murphy | 1.083 | 0.313 | 0.315 | 1.01 | Kazmir – L | 4.36 | 0.27 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.435 | 0.285 | 0.322 | 1.04 | Wheeler – R | 3.36 | 0.22 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.778 | 0.251 | 0.296 | 1.04 | Lee – L | 3.09 | 0.229 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.653 | 0.339 | 0.352 | 0.96 | Fernandez – R | 2.33 | 0.282 |
| Billy Butler | 0.552 | 0.326 | 0.352 | 0.99 | Sanchez – R | 2.68 | 0.297 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 1.148 | 0.281 | 0.31 | 0.99 | Dickey – R | 4.3 | 0.225 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.398 | 0.339 | 0.362 | 1 | Burnett – R | 3.09 | 0.287 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.899 | 0.354 | 0.391 | 0.99 | Kelly – R | 2.82 | 0.308 |
| Chris Davis | 0.401 | 0.342 | 0.429 | 1.05 | Danks – L | 4.35 | 0.231 |
- It is always hard to ignore Cano, especially when he is in a lineup like what the Yankees have going now. Cano however is not as good against left handers and faces one in Doubront who is pretty good against left handed batters. Also going against Cano tonight is his 2 for 18 history against Doubront.
- Daniel Murphy has actually been hitting it well recently, but I would not recommend using him today. Kazmir has been solid at shutting down left handers and Murphy has not hit them well with only 1 homer this year. Kazmir could be in for a good game against the inept Mets offense and the only good thing with them right now is Murphy.
- No one has a more hateable face in the majors that Nick Swisher. The guy just makes you want to punch him out whenever he gets camera time. It’s a good time to avoid him as well tonight as he is not primed for success. He is struggling against right handers this year with a .684 OPS and cannot hit anything in the last couple of weeks. He faces a pitcher in Wheeler who has not been spectacular, but very effective recently giving up more than 3 ER only once.
- Andrelton Simmons is a bit of a mixed bag to me. He has the potential for some really nice games, but does not have them as often as you would think. He has struggled a bit against left handers with a .229 average and faces off against Cliff Lee today who I never want to play my hitters against. Simmons could be cheap but a guy like Hechavarria is in a better spot and is cheaper, and does not have the 1 for 10 history like Simmons vs Lee.
- I wish I would have invested in Fernandez at the beginning of the year because he is legit. The Marlins should sign him to a long term deal and use him as a building block he is that good for them. I am not a fan of any of the Nationals hitters tonight against Fernandez especially not Desmond who has been struggling to do positive things with the bat lately.
- Billy Butler is not having a very powerful last couple of weeks. He had a 5 for 5 game last game but they were all singles. Tonight he faces Sanchez who has been nothing short of really really good for the Tigers and has a really nice history against all of the Royals including Butler. Butler is 3 for 13 with no power, which is just like every other one. There is no upside with this play.
- Trevor Plouffe has been hot with the bat lately but has to face Dickey in Target field. I am really high on Dickey against the miserable Twins lineup tonight. Plouffe has hit a bunch of homers off right handers but generally struggles against them only having a .659 OPS. His real strength is against the left handed pitcher making his upside limited today.
- AJ Burnett had a terrible start at St Louis in the middle of August but came out and really dominated them at the end of August, holding Molina to an 0-3 night. Molina is 4 for 23 off Burnett in their careers and has really been struggling. This is not where I want to spend my salary dollar, for a catcher in a potential pitching duel in a pitcher’s park.
- This is not the spot where I want to use Andrew McCutchen. He is away from home against a right hander, which are 2 of the conditions where his stats are the lowest. He is such a great hitter that he is never out of play completely, however Joe Kelly has been spectacular at getting outs lately and I really hate Cutch’s upside here against a guy who has been very very good since June.
- Uh oh, are the wheels falling off for Davis or is he just in a mini slump? He has been terrible in the last week and is stuck on 47 homers, not taking advantage of an injured Miggy to pull away. If you look at Davis’ numbers against left handers, aside from his 12 homers, they are very pedestrian with a .231 average, .768 OPS and 64 strikeouts. Those are not the numbers of a top salary guy you want on your team. To make matters worse, Davis has faced Danks 11 times and does not have a hit against him.