2020 NFL Futures: Are Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overvalued?
“”(player-popup #tom-brady)Tom Brady”:/players/tom-brady-11604 and Phil Mickelson lost to Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning”:https://rotogrinders.com/sports-betting/tiger-vs-phil on the golf course last weekend, but legal U.S. sportsbooks and bettors seem to like Brady’s odds when it comes to the 2020 NFL season.
Brady shocked football fans, particularly those in Boston, when he announced he’d be leaving New England for the Sunshine State in March to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oddsmakers acted swiftly, adjusting the Bucs Super Bowl odds from 60-1 pre-Brady to 15-1 following the news. The Buccaneers are now favored in 14 of their 16 regular season games, and Brady sits fifth, behind Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson and Prescott, in consensus MVP odds. Is the hype justified or are bettors overvaluing Brady and the Bucs?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020 Futures Odds
Super Bowl Odds: +1500 at FanDuel
Win Total: O/U 10 at BetMGM
NFC Championship: +700 (FD)
NFC South Divisional Champions: +160 (FD)
To Make Playoffs: -230 (FD)
To Miss Playoffs: +260 (MGM)
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians +2000 (MGM)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020 Schedule and Spreads
All odds herein are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, accurate as of May 19, 2020, unless stated otherwise.
- Week 1: +4 at New Orleans Saints, O/U 49.5 (via PointsBet)
- Week 2: -8.5 vs. Carolina Panthers, O/U 48 (Total via PointsBet)
- Week 3: -1 at Denver Broncos
- Week 4: -4.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 5: -1 at Chicago Bears
- Week 6: -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 7: -2 at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 8: -3.5 at New York Giants
- Week 9: -1 vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 10: -4.5 at Carolina Panthers
- Week 11: -1 vs Los Anglees Rams
- Week 12: +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 14: -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15: -1.5 at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: -1 at Denver Broncos
- Week 17: -5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
A lot of these spreads are close which is why the Buccaneers win total is only 9.5 despite being favored in so many games. There are a few spreads and total bets that I’m comfortable locking in right now. Here they are:
WK 1: Saints -4, Under 49.5 – One of Brady’s biggest assets are his intangibles, which by definition are difficult to quantify. I think Brady’s impact earlier in the season will be mitigated, and the global coronavirus pandemic could further complicate things like OTAs, training camp, and preseason games.
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Week 2: Panthers +8.5, Under 48 – The fact that the Panthers are bringing in a new starting quarterback and head coach is a bit worrisome considering the circumstances, but I’m sticking with my plane to bet against the Bucs early while Brady tries to find chemistry with his new staff and receivers.
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Week 12: Chiefs -2.5 – Chiefs offense got even more dangerous adding LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Edwards-Helaire is a favorite behind former teammate Joe Burrow to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the he should be another dependable receiving threat for Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of Mahomes, in an appearance on HBO’s The Shop, the 2018 MVP said he didn’t learn how to read a defense until last year. “I think mentally I can still take my game to a whole other level,” Mahomes explained. If Mahomes can somehow get even better, this Chiefs team has the chance to be one of the best we’ve ever seen. Expect the Chiefs to be favored by more than 2.5 points by the time Week 12 rolls around.
Tom Brady Futures Odds and Passing Totals
MVP Odds: +2200 at FOXBet
O/U 4224.5 Pass Yards
O/U 29.5 Pass Touchdowns
After a lackluster 2019 season that included Brady’s lowest QB rating for a full season since 2003, and similarly, his fewest touchdown passes (24) since 2006, Brady opened with roughly 30-1 odds to win MVP in 2020, compared to 10-1 prior to 2019.
But that’s when oddsmakers still favored the Patriots to retain the future Hall of Famer.
With elite weapons waiting for him in Tampa — wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — oddsmakers quickly shortened Brady’s 2020 NFL MVP odds. By the end of April, some sportsbooks listed Brady +1350.
Though you can find Brady +2200 at FOXBet, those odds are still too short for me. It’s to be seen whether Brady or his surrounding cast were more to blame for his struggles in 2019. I think the answer is somewhere in middle.
Brady will have more talent to throw to in Tampa Bay, including tight end Robert Gronkowski, who came out of retirement to join Brady as a Buccaneer. But will Brady be able to take advantage of the weapons at his disposal?
In 2018, Brady’s average attempt traveled only 7.7 yards, according to Next Gen Stats, ranking 24th in the NFL. Those numbers were similar in 2019.
Brady may be willing to take more deep shots to receivers who have size like Evans and the speed like Godwin, but Brady will be 43 years old by the time the season kicks off and he isn’t getting younger.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images