U.S Open Prop Bets: Best Picks for Missed Cuts, Matchups, & Finishing Position
By now, you’ve looked at U.S. Open odds and immersed yourself with some golf betting tips. Surely, you read our U.S. Open Golf Betting Picks article for a preview of Torrey Pines and the field. Hopefully, you followed that up with a dive into some U.S. Open Sleepers and Longshots. What is left? The purpose of this article is to run through some U.S. Open props, matchups, and finishing positions. Take a seat, buckle up, and keep the ball straight because the rough is going to be a problem this week. Here are a few of my favorite prop bets for the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.
2021 U.S. Open Betting Preview
The USGA decides annually to torture professional golfers that opt to play in the U.S. Open. While the Farmer’s Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines, the course will not resemble. Extremely long, dried out, with hellacious rough, Torrey Pines will be a true test for the field this week.
For statistical research this week, I am emphasizing the usual SG: OTT and SG: Approach but factoring in driving distance considerably. With many players struggling to keep the ball in the fairway, Bryson DeChambeau showed just how beneficial the length could be when hacking the ball out of the rough. Par 4s with length 450-500 yards are a big consideration this week as well as Proximity from 200+. When filtering through the field, I am considering filters such as poa greens, longer courses, and courses with really long rough.
U.S Open Prop Bets
Shane Lowry Top GB and Irish Player +700 (PointsBet)
For the U.S. Open, sportsbooks increase the offerings and prop markets. Yet, each week, nationality props can be found on most of the more prominent sites. This week, every site will offer a host of nationality props. In many cases, one golfer sticks out and the other golfers are big longshots. In the case of Great Britain and Ireland, several golfers are available.
Shane Lowry is a grinder. Currently, in excellent form (4th at PGA and 6th at Memorial), the Irishman brings a game suited for the more challenging courses. His OTT and Approach game is not to be dismissed but Lowry’s efforts around the green are exceptional. Lowry sits 4th in the field in SG: ARG as a complement to an already strong well-rounded game. Torrey Pines is going to test the mental limits of most players this weekend. Lowry’s poise and ability to save par should put him squarely in contention.
Risking 1/2 unit to win 3.5
Bubba Watson Missed Cut +110 (William Hill)
Well, this bet feels like the anti-sweat. Typically, DFS players are sweating so many players making the cut on Friday that they are glued to a television (or app) with a list of players and a desire for late birdies. In this case, I am hoping for the opposite with Bubba Watson.
While Watson checks the box for SG: OTT in a big way, the rest of his game has not translated to USGA offerings over the years. In 10 starts at a U.S. Open, Bubba has made three cuts with his best finish being 31st.
Relative to the field, Watson is 59th ARG and 107th in putting. If I filter the field for play on courses with longer rough, those numbers dip to 111th and 121st respectively. While Watson’s form coming into the event is pretty good, a lousy performance with 6 shots lost at the PGA is evidence of what happens when conditions become more difficult. Bubba plays well at “Bubba” courses. The USGA does not design “Bubba” courses.
Risking 1 unit to win 1.1
Phil Mickelson to beat Joaquin Niemann +120 (FanDuel)
Phil’s amazing run at Kiawah Island is one that most golf fans will remember for a long time. The visual of the gallery on 18 as Phil sealed the victory with his approach to the green is one that will live in golf lore forever. So, Mickelson to finally sew up his career Grand Slam, anyone?
Not quite for me. While Phil is in really good form and seems to be in a great headspace, his outright odds are probably too short at around 60/1 off the back of the win at the PGA Championship. However, a matchup with a young upstart with very little U.S. Open experience? Sign me up.
Joaquin Niemann certainly has many wins in his future and excels OTT. The struggles for Niemann come around and on the green where strong rounds often go to perish. Niemann has lost strokes around the green in his last four starts, most notably losing three strokes at Wells Fargo while gaining 5.5 from tee to green. Mickelson is an artist around the greens and at 51 (Happy Birthday, Phil) on Wednesday, he still hits the ball long enough to rank top 20 in the field in both driving distance and proximity > 200.
File this under gut, perhaps, but I think Phil makes it to the weekend and plays well enough to hold off Niemann who will need to adjust to USGA conditions.
Risking 1 unit to win 1.2
Taylor Pendrith Top 40 +400 (FanDuel)
The Korn Ferry Tour product, Taylor Pendrith will make his third start at the U.S. Open this week. Despite less experience than the field, Pendrith brings a very strong OTT game to Torrey Pines and a 23rd place finish at last year’s U.S. Open. Statistically, I cannot make a case for Pendrith being a stronger case than many players in this field. That said, for this prop, the price is all that matters.
The Canadian is 4/1 to comes inside the top 40 this week. With only 60 making the cut, making the weekend means a relatively decent couple of days should get Pendrith where we need him. That said, FanDuel’s price offering far exceeds the offerings from other sites. DraftKings hangs a +163 tag on this event while BetMGM (the best place to shop finishes) posts this T40 at +250. FanDuel and PointsBet both offer +400. I think the different in winnings on a full unit is worth adding this to the card given Pendrith’s successes off the tee.
Risking 1 unit to win 4
Good luck with your golf bets this week. Happy Father’s Day to all who will celebrate as someone clutches the trophy on Sunday.
Image Credit: Imagn