USC vs. Notre Dame Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick
USC vs. Notre Dame Odds
| USC Odds | +3 |
| Notre Dame Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 60.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 14 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
On Saturday night, college football fans will be treated to a marquee matchup between #10 USC and #21 Notre Dame. Heisman front-runner Caleb Williams leads the undefeated Trojans, which find themselves priced as underdogs for the first time this season, facing Sam Hartman and the Fighting Irish.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Notre Dame as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 60.5 points.
In our USC vs. Notre Dame betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
USC
Caleb Williams looks to solidify Heisman chances
Through six games this season, Caleb Williams has been sensational, leading the Trojans to no fewer than 42 points in all six games that his team has played in 2023. Williams ranks 8th in the country in QBR and has posted an incredible 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has thrown for at least three touchdowns five times this year, and he rushed for three touchdowns in the other contest.
Yet the surface-level statistics do not reveal the entire picture for Williams this fall. Williams has been nearly flawless when kept clean – completing 77.3% of his pass attempts for 11.7 yards per attempt with zero turnover-worthy throws on 134 dropbacks. He has been far less impressive in the rare instances when he has been under pressure, completing only 52.5% of his pass attempts for 8.5 yards per attempt. His 13.8% turnover-worthy play rate in such situations is dreadful.
According to PFF, Notre Dame’s defense ranks 18th out of 133 schools in pass rush grade so far in 2023. For context, Arizona ranks 102nd, Colorado ranks 84th, Arizona State ranks 86th, Stanford ranks 126th, Nevada ranks 133rd, and San Jose State ranks 45th. This will be by far Williams’ toughest test of the year to date.
USC defense putting perfect season in jeopardy
Heading into last weekend’s matchup against Arizona, USC’s defense has plenty of red flags – ranking 95th in line yards defensively, 125th in EPA/rush attempt, and 97th in PFF’s tackling metric, according to JD Yonke. Overall, their defense ranked 84th in EPA/play and 55th in success rate. Unsurprisingly, the Trojans allowed 506 total yards of offense to Arizona and permitted 41 points for the second consecutive week. USC allowed 564 yards of total offense the week prior to Colorado.
It is abundantly clear to anyone paying attention that USC has a hyper-inflated 6-0 record against one of the softest schedules in the nation. Facing a legitimately talented team led by Sam Hartman, the Trojans defense is unlikely to have many answers.
Notre Dame
Sam Hartman hoping for bounce-back week
Following an electric beginning to the year, Sam Hartman has played extremely poorly in three consecutive weeks, during which Notre Dame has gone from an unbeaten 4-0 to 5-2 with no hopes of playing for a national championship. Fortunately for Hartman and the Notre Dame offense, they have a great opportunity for a bounce back this week against a porous USC defense.
Though Hartman’s struggles across the last few weeks may look troublesome and surprising, it has been a function of the defenses he has faced – defenses that are adept at getting pressure on the quarterback. Hartman has been outstanding this season from a clean pocket, completing 72.4% of his pass attempts for 10.5 yards per attempt and a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has been far less impressive when under pressure, completing only 40.4% of his pass attempts for 5.8 yards per attempt and posting a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Both Ohio State and Louisville rank in the top-15 this season in defensive pass rush grade, per PFF. USC ranks 32nd and is one of the worst tackling teams in the country. The ceiling is much higher for the Fighting Irish offense in Week 7 than it has been the last three times they have taken the field.
Notre Dame defense facing tough test against Williams
Caleb Williams is widely regarded as the top quarterback in the country and is projected to be the top pick in the NFL Draft next summer if he chooses to leave USC. He is an extremely tough test for a Notre Dame defense that allowed 33 points last week to Louisville.
Last week, the Fighting Irish generated only 12 quarterback pressures against Louisville, which was Notre Dame’s fewest pressures since the opening week of the season against a Navy offense that does not throw the ball very often. Jack Plummer got rid of the football, on average, in 2.6 seconds in that matchup, which limited the impact of Notre Dame’s pass rush. In Week 7, the Fighting Irish should be able to get more consistent pressure against Williams, who has an average time to throw this fall of 3.1 seconds, per PFF. If this unit can get pressure on Williams, they will give themselves a great opportunity to win.
USC vs. Notre Dame – Picks & Predictions
USC has nearly lost in back-to-back weeks against two teams that are nowhere near being national title contenders in 2023. Though Notre Dame has lost two of its last three contests, they are still a well-rounded football team that has the ability to make life difficult for their opponents. If the Fighting Irish can get pressure on Caleb Williams, the home favorites could emerge with a relatively comfortable victory in this spot.
PICK: Notre Dame -3 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Sam Hartman More Than 263.5 Pass Yards, PrizePicks
Sam Hartman has been outstanding this season from a clean pocket, completing 72.4% of his pass attempts for 10.5 yards per attempt and a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has been far less impressive when under pressure, completing only 40.4% of his pass attempts for 5.8 yards per attempt and posting a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Following a tough stretch of opponents with elite pass rushes, Hartman gets a much more favorable matchup against USC in Week 7. The Trojans are also a poor tackling defense, which opens up opportunities for receivers to gain yards after the catch. Do not be surprised if Hartman throws for 300 yards on Saturday.
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