Useful Tidbits and Miscellaneous Ramblings: The Open
Greetings, everyone! With baseball on the All-Star break, hockey and basketball on their off-seasons, football not yet ramped up, and nothing else going on in DFS land, things get a little quiet. Thankfully, we have golf rosters to set for the upcoming major starting on Wednesday night! It will be contested at Royal Troon Golf Club, and the full field of 156 runners is set.
This article is intended to be a random mishmash of thoughts that might help you as you set your lineups on DraftKings, especially if you are playing in the Millionaire Maker GPP. These tidbits will go from general to specific as the article goes on.
Some of them will be pointless. Some of them might be silly. The hope is that at least one of them can help you out as you set your lineups. Let’s dig in!
21 USEFUL NUGGETS FOR THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
1) It’s not the British Open. It’s ‘The Open Championship’ everyone. Remember that! The local folk will not be too pleased if we continue to call it by the wrong name.
2) Royal Troon has not hosted The Open since 2004, as a rotating cycle of courses is used for this event. This makes it difficult to rely on “key stats” or “course history,” both of which are backbones for the research methods of many fantasy players.
3) This course has a true “outward” nine holes followed by an “inward” nine holes. In a general sense, a player will either be playing downwind going out and into the wind coming back, or vice versa. However, wind shifts can occur in the middle of a round, whereby a player might get lucky with 18 downwind holes, or possibly get unlucky with 18 holes into the wind.
4) Speaking of wind, never underestimate the wind factor on a links course in Europe. Weather forecasts, while somewhat reliable, are not entirely so. It wouldn’t be a true Open without weather playing a role. If you are making multiple lineups, you might be best served stacking tee times together in hopes that one of your lineups draws the most favorable part of the weather.
5) Hang onto your hats on holes nine through twelve. In 2004, these four holes all played amongst the five hardest holes on the course. If your golfer can get through these holes at even par or one over, he will make up strokes on the field.
6) In a general sense, the first nine holes are significantly easier than the last nine holes. There aren’t going to be many birdies made on the back nine, especially if those holes happen to be playing into the wind.
7) Royal Troon is known for the nasty bunker on Hole #8, a hole which is called the “Postage Stamp.” It is only a 123 yard par three, which means golfers are basically hitting a wedge off the tee. Despite this, the hole played to an over par average of 3.09 strokes in 2004.
8) Don’t be afraid to fade the chalk. The Millionaire Maker is an extremely top-heavy GPP. If you fade the highest-owned golfer and he misses the cut, you will make up significant ground on the field. If you take the highest-owned golfer and he finishes near the top, you still aren’t guaranteed anything.
9) Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. Dan Back did a wonderful article last year on players using all of their salary cap, and it showed that you can really benefit in the avoidance of duplicate lineups if you leave just $200 or $300 in salary left on the table.
10) It would not be a surprise if a lesser-known golfer won this event. The last three winners at Royal Troon have been Mark Calcavecchia, Justin Leonard (who came from five shots back on Sunday), and Todd Hamilton. Those three golfers have combined for zero major championship wins outside of this event.
11) Do not fall victim to the trap of overvaluing American players. These guys are more recognizable because you know them from the PGA Tour. It’s very easy to look at the field and see just how cheap guys like Smylie Kaufman, Bill Haas, Gary Woodland, Colt Knost, William McGirt are (there are others, too). This is a losing proposition. A lot of these players have rarely, if ever, played links golf. It’s a different animal, and you need to be increasing the value that you put on European Tour players who have more experience on these types of courses.
12) Tidbit #11 is very important. Make sure you read it.
13) The pricing on DraftKings is relatively soft this week, and that’s something that they often do for majors. You will like the teams that you put together. So will everyone else. Don’t feel like your rosters are invincible; it is simply due to the soft pricing — or due to you not reading #11 above.
14) Recent strong form in Europe is a positive. The Scottish Open was played last week on a links-style course. Alex Noren was the winner by one shot over Tyrell Hatton. I like both as potential cheap options this week, with Hatton being my preferred play.
15) It will be interesting to see who the chalk is amongst the high dollar golfers. It’s hard to argue with Dustin Johnson on any course these days, but I feel like he may be over-owned this week and don’t love his fit on this course. Jason Day will likely carry a hefty ownership percentage, too.
16) There is bound to be an player that most people haven’t heard of at the top of the leaderboard on the first day. My random guess? Nicolas Colsaerts.
17) There is bound to be a high dollar player that completely fizzles out unexpectedly. My random guess? Justin Rose.
18) There is bound to be a mid-range player that has a legitimate chance to win this thing. My random guess? Charl Schwartzel. The guy has five top 25 finishes on his Open resume and is trending in the right direction.
19) Who will the highest owned golfer be this week? It’s tough to peg, but I’ll venture a guess that Bubba Watson will be up there. His price tag jumps off the page. Matt Kuchar will be highly owned as well. Please make sure you refer to point #11 above once more. There’s a reason all these Americans are cheaper than you would expect.
20) I’m not being intentionally harsh on the Americans here, but it sure sounds like it. Surprisingly, the list of the last three winners at Royal Troon that I mentioned above? All three are American. Go USA! Possible American sleeper pick? Scott Piercy.
21) To close out with lucky #21, here are a few guys I like at Royal Troon:
High-End Picks – Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler
Mid-Range Picks – Phil Mickelson, Charl Schwartzel, Paul Casey, Russell Knox
Cheap Picks – Francesco Molinari, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Tyrell Hatton, Marc Warren
Good luck! Go out there and bring home some bacon!