Utah vs. Oregon State Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick
Utah vs. Oregon State Odds
| Utah Odds | +4 |
| Oregon State Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Fri, Sep. 29 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
Week 5 of the College Football season began with a trio of contests on Thursday evening, but fans get their first marquee matchup of the weekend on Friday when #10 Utah travels to Reser Stadium to play #19 Oregon State. Entering play, Utah is 4-0, despite not having their expected starting quarterback take a single snap yet this season. Oregon State is 3-1, with their lone blemish being a three-point loss to #21 Washington State on the road last weekend.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Oregon State as 4-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 44.5 points.
In our Utah vs. Oregon State betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Utah Utes
Nate Johnson expected to start at QB again
According to Josh Newman, “indications are that it’s going to be Nate Johnson” under center against Oregon State. Though Cam Rising ostensibly had a chance to play in Week 1, he will still be on the sidelines on Friday, in Utah’s fifth game of the season.
In Rising’s absence, Utah’s offense ranks 112th in the country, with more than 20 points in only one of their last three games – against Weber State, a team that has allowed 71 points and been outscored by 64 points across the last two weeks. Johnson has done a good job taking care of the football through the air this season, with zero interceptions on 49 pass attempts. He has performed well from a clean pocket, completing 66.7% of his pass attempts and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt on such throws. However, he has struggled mightily under pressure, completing only 53.8% of his pass attempts for 4.6 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus.
Fortunately for Johnson, Oregon State is not particularly adept at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with only 62 pressures in four games to begin the year. If Utah can give Johnson a clean pocket on Friday, he should be able to make good on his public promise to “be better” than he was in Week 4.
What to expect from the Utah defense
Utah has been exceptional against the run to begin 2023, allowing 204 rushing yards on 143 attempts through their first four games. Yet, they will face their toughest test of the season on Friday night against an Oregon State offense that is averaging 6.3 yards per carry this year.
Fans of the Utes should not be overly worried, however, considering the impressive depth that head coach Kyle Whittingham has collected on this side of the ball. Heading into 2023, the Utes had nine returning starters on defense from 2022, including 10 of their top-13 tacklers from last season. Phil Steele had Utah’s defensive line, linebacker corps, and secondary unit each individually ranked as the best in the Pac-12 during the preseason. Though this group faces a tough challenge on Friday, they should be up for the task.
Oregon State Beavers
Can DJ Uiagalelei handle the pressure?
According to PFF, DJ Uiaglelei has posted a 65.2% completion rate and averaged 10.2 yards per attempt from a clean pocket in 2023, but only a 42.9% completion rate and 4.3 yards per attempt when under pressure. His passer rating falls from 121.5 from a clean pocket to 43.9 when under pressure.
Year over year, Oregon State has a reputation for fielding stout offensive lines, but this unit has been vulnerable at times in pass protection this fall. Uiagalelei was pressured on 47.4% of his dropbacks in Week 4 and has been pressured on 38.2% of his dropbacks for the season, despite a soft schedule during the first month of action. Utah has the best pass rush and the best run defense that Oregon State has faced so far in 2023.
What to expect from the Oregon State defense
Through three weeks, a person could have fooled themselves into thinking that Oregon State’s defense was better than was to be expected. However, last weekend’s 38-35 loss to Washington State should leave no doubts as to the true talent level on this side of the ball for the Beavers.
In Week 4, Oregon State allowed Cameron Ward to complete 28-of-34 pass attempts for 404 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. This unit also allowed 106 rushing yards and a score on the ground. In total, Washington State amassed 528 yards of total offense, including 27 first downs. According to PFF, three different cornerbacks allowed at least six receptions on seven targets or fewer in their direction in that contest.
Entering 2023, Oregon State had only five returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. Their losses included four of their top-five tacklers from 2022, including their two best linebackers and three of the best players from their secondary unit. Nate Johnson might not gash this defense through the air, but his ability to extend plays with his legs will be something to watch.
Utah vs. Oregon State – Picks & Predictions
Playing on a short week, it would not be a surprise if this turned out to be an extremely ugly football game between Utah and Oregon State. Utah’s 112th ranked offense has struggled mightily in the absence of Cam Rising, and Oregon State is yet to be tested against a defense with anywhere near as much talent as Utah.
Both of these teams play at a pace that is slower than the national average in college football, per teamrankings.com. The under is a strong look here, with both offenses capable of bottoming-out in this spot.
PICK: Under 44.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Damien Martinez More Than 80.5 Rush Yards, PrizePicks
Heading into Week 5, Damien Martinez is a perfect 4-for-4 in eclipsing this market number in 2023. In each of his first three games played this fall, Martinez had 102 rushing yards or more. In his first matchup against a ranked opponent in Week 4, he still managed 81 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry. Utah has a stout run defense, but they are vulnerable between the tackles and Oregon State has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the country. Despite the difficult matchup, Martinez should be competitive at this number on Friday night in front of his home fans.
Check out more DFS sites with College Football fantasy pick’em games like Sleeper Fantasy.