2024 Valero Texas Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-04-02 22:18:21

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

The PGA TOUR makes one final stop before the beginning of the majors season. The Masters is on the horizon as the Valero Texas Open is the last opportunity for a non-qualified player to earn an invitation. Corey Conners returns as a two-time champion — famously punching his first ticket to Augusta National after his first victory in 2019. Will someone realize their dream of playing at The Masters with a victory this week? Let’s give the odds board a glance before reviewing TPC San Antonio.

The Valero Texas Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 2nd – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Valero Texas Open:

• 2023 – Corey Conners (-15)
• 2022 – J.J. Spaun (-13)
• 2021 – Jordan Spieth (-13)
• 2019 – Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018 – Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017 – Kevin Chappell (-12)
• 2016 – Charley Hoffman (-12)

There will be 156 players this weekend, with the last spot in The Masters available to the winner if they aren’t already qualified. The top 65 golfers — including ties — will make the cut and play the weekend. Normally a very weak field, the Valero sees an infusion of talent with Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, and Hideki Matsuyama playing the event. Spieth has frequented this tournament and won it in the past. He will likely draw a lot of attention from recreational bettors.

As for the final Masters bid, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes, and Thomas Detry elected not to take a chance on the last spot by foregoing the Valero Texas Open. In the field, Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the highest-ranked player in the field that does not have a bid. Alex Noren, Brendon Todd, and Andrew Putnam are amongst the golfers in the field vying for the final spot. Robert MacIntyre has slipped in the world rankings and will miss his second consecutive Masters without a victory this weekend.

Otherwise, Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, and Stewart Cink are not qualified to play at Augusta National. Horschel has featured in every major since 2018, and Kisner has been in ever major since 2015.

With such a strong field, are the stars looking for a tune up? In all likelihood, everyone in contention is looking for a victory on TOUR. However, don’t be surprised if someone has a rough start to their tournament and packs their bags early for Georgia. Let’s dig into the course.

2024 Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
• Date: April 4 – 7
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,438
• Greens: Poa Overseed

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a long, straightforward golf course protected by wind and dry conditions. Ranking in the top 10 in distance, this course does not feature much in the way of penal rough through fairways or around the greens. We will look out for this week’s weather report to see if winds will test players.

If the course is firm, it will not be as long, and emphasis will be shifted on precision ball striking. A second-shot golf course, we will be looking for players in excellent form with their irons and wedges that can create opportunities for birdies. If wind prevails, the -18 shot by Corey Conners last year will likely represent an outlier, and we will see a winning score in the lower double digits.

The four most challenging holes on the course are par 4s between 450-500 yards — surprise, surprise. The course features four par 5s and four par 3s. The par 5s are especially long — so much so that two of the shorter par 4s rank better with regard to making birdies.

Despite the length of the course, the proximity range from greater than 200 yards has a much lower distribution of shots than the TOUR average. Firmer conditions in San Antonio likely lead to longer tee shots and shorter approach shots. Instead, the plurality of shots come from the 150-175 yard bucket with no ranges more frequent than TOUR average.

Play around the greens does not seem to be pivotal at this event with rough being far less penal. Scrambling is way less important than the average TOUR event. However, greens in regulation are way down at this event relative to the average TOUR event. We shouldn’t be surprised that Corey Conners has found success at this course, as he is one of the better ball strikers on TOUR.

We will emphasize SG: Approach, good drives, par-5 scoring, ball striking, and putting. Let’s peek at some golfers to consider for outright betting and one-and-done play this week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Corey Conners +2500

Last year, I left Conners off my betting card at this event and regretted it mightily. After spending multiple years betting one of our favorites at almost any event, Conners broke through again and put together a monster performance in San Antonio.

Of course, the likelihood of a repeat is not great, but the presence of Rory, Hideki, and Max Homa helps get us a better price on his outright and finishing positions. Conners will likely be a very popular one-and-done selection, as many people still aim to play the bigger names at major events. That said, we might not get a better spot to play him.

His work on the greens at TPC San Antonio is some of the best in his career. He has gained putting in four of his five starts. Those starts include two victories and no finish worse than a Top 40. We need to consider him in a variety of betting contexts this week.

Billy Horschel +3500

Billy Horschel is at risk of missing his first major since 2018. While we can’t possibly factor motivation in our model, Horschel has been in good form otherwise and will be even more motivated than he normally is to hoist a trophy.

Horschel ranks second in the field in good drives and seventh in putting. Unsurprisingly, he has played well in the lesser fields this season while struggling in the elevated events. Finishing seventh last week in Houston, Horschel could make a run in what is certainly still a weak field despite this year’s star power.

I will admit, 35-1 is a bit of a tricky price to pay. While the recent form is great relative to the competition, the presence of the bigger names with considerably more win equity is a concern as an outright bet. He feels like a strong finishing position wager and DFS play, depending on his draw.

Beau Hossler +5000

In 2022, Hossler made a run at TPC San Antonio and seemed to have the tightest grasp on the final invitation to Augusta National. Instead, J.J. Spaun outlasted Hossler and took that spot. Hossler has made great strikes on TOUR since that event but finds himself in a bit of a rut of late.

Starting the season off in good form, Hossler finished T20 in back-to-back events at the Farmer’s and Pebble Beach. Missing two cuts recently, Hossler finally played a weekend in Houston last weekend. Assuming he is getting back on track, the friendly confine of TPC San Antonio could be what Hossler needs to begin a run on TOUR.

What greater motivation than a spot at The Masters? Hossler is in consideration as an outright or placement bet at his odds.

Charley Hoffman +13000

Previous the Charley Hoffman Open, the Valero Texas Open is the site of the TOUR veteran’s first victory. Hoffman has four other top-5 finishes and an incredible CV at this event. Father Time remains undefeated, and Hoffman is certainly in the twilight of his career on TOUR. However, at 130-1, would a run at Valero be that surprising, given his history at the event?

I don’t think so. For Charley Hoffman, contending at any TOUR event is important, but another bid at The Masters would certainly be a nice feather to put in his cap towards the end of his career. A victory at the Valero Texas Open means a greater likelihood of more golf in the fall and a chance at big money and big points at Augusta National.

Let’s be honest. His recent form has not been great. However, his run at Phoenix also came out of nowhere and took a remarkable closing few holes by Nick Taylor to be derailed. At these odds, he can add some sentiment to our betting card.

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