2023 Valspar Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-03-15 11:22:20

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Valspar Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

The Innisbrook Resort will host the final leg on the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing this weekend. Famed for the Snake Pit on the Copperhead Course, we get a bit of a breather after a couple of prestigious events featured monster prize pools and all of golf’s elite. Our betting preview covers the course, betting odds, the field, and some thoughts about players to watch. For this article, we construct our preliminary outright betting card. Let’s get to it!

Valspar Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 13th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

2023 Valspar Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
• Date: March 16-19
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,340
• Greens: Bermuda

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• Good Drives
• Proximity 175-200
• Scrambling
• SG: Par 5
• SG: Par 3
• SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Adam Hadwin +2500 (BetMGM)

If not for Sam Burns, we might attempt to rename the Valspar Championship to the Adam Hadwin Open. Hadwin’s history at the course, although inconsistent, is filled with some spectacular finishes. A win in 2017 along with a 12th and 7th show that he knows how to work his way around Copperhead.

Hadwin just finished 13th at The Players despite losing strokes on the green. That makes three tournaments in a row where his putter failed him. However, he gained 9.5 strokes from tee-to-green last week and is typically a good fit for a course that command a precise level of ball-striking.

Don’t get me wrong, with Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Matt Fitzpatrick in the field, the way this season has played out would suggest the winner will come from that group. For this tournament, I prefer to take a few shots at the golfers a level below and save a bit of coin. Hadwin ranks 6th in the field in SG: Approach. He begins our card for 0.8 units at BetMGM.

Hadwin is likely to be a popular OAD selection this week. He is my first consideration but I will need to wait a bit for ownership because I am so, so, so far behind.

Davis Riley +3500 (PointsBet)

Riley missed the cut at The Players Championship but had two strong finishes in his previous two starts. His ball-striking numbers creeped back up to form during those starts. I am willing to overlook the performance at TPC Sawgrass due to the wild weather players faced between Thursday and Friday.

Riley finished second last year at the Valspar in a playoff against Sam Burns. He gained 7.1 strokes putting on the Bermuda greens and had a strong week from T2G despite struggles on approach. He gained north of 5 strokes on the greens at the Honda and might just find these Bermuda greens very comfortable. We like Denny McCarthy in this range as well but Riley makes for an interesting add on our card as well as a wildly contrarian OAD play. We will place 0.6 units on Riley at PointsBet.

Ben Griffin +5000 (BetMGM)

If you read our preview, you know that I am still miffed at Ben Griffin for his one bad tournament when I wrote him up and used him in OAD. Otherwise, Griffin continues to show the PGA Tour that he will be a factor for years to come.

Griffin ranks in the top 30 in approach, putting, and Par 3’s from 200-225 yards. He is third in the field in scrambling. The challenging nature of Copperhead and the bevy of forced layups will likely lead to several opportunities to scramble. Players will need to get up-and-down to remain in contention when they don’t hit greens. We can be confident with Griffin’s ability to save pars.

At some point, Griffin is going to break through with his first win. At a field with diminished strength, 50/1 feels like a bargain. We will place 0.4 units on him on BetMGM. I can’t use him for OAD but would understand using him if you are way, way behind.

Nate Lashley +9000 (DraftKings)

I didn’t want to spend much on this week’s card ahead of the WGC Matchplay. This feels like a good time to dial it back before we get back to tournament golf for major season. That said, I wanted to find someone way down the leaderboard in good form to finalize our allotment. Enter Nate Lashley.

Lashley ranks 8th in Good Drives and 5th in Proximity 175-200. He has four consecutive made cuts — including The Players and the Genesis. He finished third in Puerto Rico. Last season, Lashley made the cut and finished 27th at Copperhead. For 90/1, I think he is more than acceptable as a final piece. We will place 1/4 units on Nate on DraftKings Sportsbook. He is not in consideration for OAD.

2023 Valspar Championship Betting Card

Valspar Total Units in Play – 2.05

2023 Net Units: -19.35

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

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Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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