2024 Valspar Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The PGA TOUR’s Florida swing comes to a close at the 2024 Valspar Championship. After an exciting Players Championship, Taylor Moore aims to defend his title at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. Give our betting preview a read for course notes and trending players before going over this week’s golf betting picks.
The Valspar Championship Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – March 19th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +650 |
| Sam Burns | +1200 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Brian Harman | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2800 |
| Sepp Straka | +3500 |
| Nick Taylor | +3500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3500 |
| Adam Hadwin | +3500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Doug Ghim | +4000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +4000 |
| Eric Cole | +4500 |
| Aaron Rai | +4500 |
| Lucas Glover | +5000 |
| Beau Hossler | +5000 |
2024 Valspar Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
- Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
- Date: March 21 – 24
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,340
- Greens: Poa Overseed
Key Statistics
- SG: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proximity 175-200
- SG: Par 5
- SG: Putting
Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.
Sam Burns +1400 (DraftKings)
As mentioned in this week’s betting preview, I don’t often climb this high on the odds board to start my betting card. However, Sam Burns is the perfect blend of course history and recent form for this week’s tournament. Burns went back-to-back at Copperhead and nearly completed the three-peat last season. His recent form has been great as the TOUR star seems poised for his next victory. With a step down in field strength, Burns sticks out like a sore thumb this week.
He is going to be a very popular bet as well as a one-and-done selection. Burns ranks second in Strokes Gained on par 5s while ranking sixth in bogey avoidance. What he looks in approach play and proximity, he makes up for with a stellar short game. Copperhead is sneaky challenging — Burns will be able to grind out pars throughout the week to support his scoring on the par 5s.
We are going to open with two units on Burns but will not use him as our one-and-done.
Nick Taylor +3500 (PointsBet)
In place of Burns as our one-and-done selection, I am going to slide down the board a bit to select Nick Taylor. Taylor is one of the better approach players in the field and an excellent putter. Throughout his victories over the last couple of seasons, Taylor showed plenty of moxie on Sunday and in playoffs. If he is close, expect him to make a run on Sunday afternoon.
Taylor is third in both SG: Approach and Putting and 15th in scrambling. Another golfer who will capitalize on scoring opportunities while grinding out pars, Taylor must be considered one of the better golfers in the field. We will use our one-and-done on him while he is in excellent form while also adding him to our betting card.
Doug Ghim +4500 (bet365)
Doug Ghim week? Ghim has five consecutive T20 finishes and seems to be on the precipice of his first victory on TOUR. Ghim’s Achilles Heel has always been the putter, but he has gained in four of five of his last events. With his ball-striking pedigree, Ghim will contend if he can continue to putt well.
Ghim leads the field in par-5 scoring while ranking 5th in bogey avoidance. He ranks 11th in SG: Approach and 15th in scrambling. We are not accustomed to Ghim holing out par putts to stay in contention, but perhaps he is peaking at the right time. The price feels a bit short for Doug Ghim but could be considered a bargain relative to this weaker field.
Ghim will be a very popular bet and DFS option. He could warrant top finisher bet consideration.
Joel Dahmen +10000 (FanDuel)
Why not add some emotional upside to the card with Joel Dahmen this week? Joel Dahmen and his caddie are so easy to root for. After a disastrous 2023, Dahmen has two consecutive made cuts and a T10 at THE PLAYERS Championship. He put on a tee-to-green clinic at TPC Sawgrass — gaining more than 13 strokes.
At 100-1, Dahmen is not a tough add as an outright as the cup would runneth over with excitement if Dahmen and Bonnalie celebrated on the 18th with a career-affirming victory. We would wipe away our happy tears with our outright dollars.
Dahmen seems to have a tendency to get hot and go cold over the course of his career. If he is getting hot, let’s jump on for a minimal investment.
Taylor Pendrith +25000 (PointsBet)
Speaking of minimal investments, we are going to sprinkle a couple of shekels on Taylor Pendrith. A few weeks ago, Pendrith was the top player in our golf model and one of the most popular OAD selections of the season. After a few horrid weeks, Pendrith is 250-1.
I can’t ignore his poor recent form. However, at 250-1, we can take a crack at him finding his form. In great form, Pendrith is more likely priced at 50-1 this weekend in Florida. This is merely a price play.
2024 Valspar Championship Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Burns | +1400 | 2 | 28 |
| Nick Taylor | +3500 | 0.8 | 28 |
| Doug Ghim | +4500 | 0.6 | 27 |
| Joel Dahmen | +10000 | 0.3 | 30 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +25000 | 0.1 | 25 |
Valspar Units: 2.8
2024 Net Units: -16.65
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.
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