2024 Valspar Championship Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-03-19 23:09:16

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Valspar Championship. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After golf fans were treated to an exciting Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, the Florida swing will culminate at the Copperhead Course for the 2024 Valspar Championship. Previously the Paul Casey Open, Sam Burns just missed a three-peat at the Valspar in 2023. Burns is back as a two-time champion but not the betting favorite. Xander Schauffele leads the odds board after a disappointing conclusion to his Players Championship run. Let’s go over the field, golf course, and some notable golfers ahead of this PGA event.

The Valspar Championship Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 19th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Valspar Championship:

• 2023 – Taylor Moore (-10)
• 2022 – Sam Burns (-17)
• 2021 – Sam Burns (-17)
• 2019 – Paul Casey (-8)
• 2018 – Paul Casey (-10)
• 2017 – Adam Hadwin (-14)
• 2016 – Charl Schwartzel (-7)
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth (-10)

This week, 156 golfers will tee it up, with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. A weaker field, the Valspar Championship features seven of the OWGR Top 25. Jordan Spieth, Adam Hadwin, and Sam Burns headline the group of previous winners. Taylor Moore is back to defend his title at +6500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. With the field strength taking a dip ahead of the Majors season, the Valspar could present another opportunity for a first-time winner.

Tom Kim and Patrick Cantlay withdrew from the field this week. Kim will presumably nurse his injury while Cantlay could be looking to rest ahead of The Masters in April. In this week’s field, the top five players in total strokes gained over their last 24 rounds are Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Doug Ghim, Sam Burns, and Maverick McNealy. Ghim and McNealy played very well at TPC Sawgrass last week.

Let’s look over the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.

2024 Valspar Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
• Date: March 21 – 24
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,340
• Greens: Poa Overseed

The Copperhead Course features four Par 5s but five Par 3s. The unique layout for a Par 71 presents a shorter golf course that feels longer because of the bulk of Par 3s. The course is a true test with the “Snake Pit” representing the Final Boss for golfers, spanning holes 16 through 18.

The course demands excellent ball striking, with several dog legs and plenty of forced layups. Fairways are very difficult even if golfers choose to lay back off the tee. With so many target golf shots, the plurality of the approach shots is 175+ yards. The course rewards excellent approach games.

Previously, proficient putters on Bermuda greens have performed very well at the Copperhead Course. Sam Burns gained north of 5 strokes putting in his victory in 2022. The greens, though, have been overseeded with poa trivialis. With the tournament playing in March, the Bermuda grass is dormant during the event.

All of the Par 5s fall roughly between 550-600 yards. Par 5 specialists will be an important demographic to target at the Valspar Championship. The top five golfers in strokes gained on Par 5s ahead of this event are Doug Ghim, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, and Min Woo Lee.

Three of the more difficult holes on the course fall between 450 and 500 yards One of the Par 3s is a beast — measuring a whopping 235 yards. Players will look to play even on the more challenging holes and score on the Par 5s. Xander Schauffele leads the field in strokes gained for this challenging Par 4 distance range.

SG: Approach and SG: Putting see an increase in importance at this event. GIR% at this course is relatively lower than the tour average while scrambling is far more prominent. Players’ short games will be tested on and around the greens. On the green, players will not be successful unless they putt well. Sam Burns has gained a pile of strokes on the greens throughout his tenure at this course. Taylor Moore gained 4.9 strokes on the greens last season.

Let’s look over some trending golfers ahead of this week’s tournament.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Sam Burns +1200

Normally, you will not find me poking around this high up the odds board for a golf tournament. With that said, in a weaker field, I am finding it very difficult to avoid Sam Burns.

Burns has never finished worse than 30th at the Valspar Championship, with his last three starts producing two victories and a sixth-place finish in 2023. Burns keeps a clean scorecard — ranking sixth in Bogey Avoidance. Burns also scores, however, as he ranks second in Par 5 scoring in the field. With a stellar history at this course and incredible recent form, maybe this is a week to make one bet.

If you don’t want to get exposure through the betting market, we might consider using Burns as our one-and-done selection this week.

Nick Taylor +3500

Taylor is putting together a great 2024 season with a victory in Phoenix as well as several other strong finishes. Taylor finished 26th at TPC Sawgrass with his around-the-green game letting him down. Regularly a breakeven player around the greens, Taylor gets by on a stellar approach game.

Taylor ranks 3rd in SG: Approach and 3rd in SG: Putting. Check and check. Exceptional ball striking with great putting wins at the Valspar. Taylor has also shown his mettle with a history of clutch play down the stretch when he is in contention. He will not be overwhelmed by the moment if he finds himself in contention on Sunday.

If you want to get off of who will be a very popular OAD selection in Sam Burns, Taylor makes plenty of sense as a lesser-owned option.

Doug Ghim +4000

Speaking of a lesser-owned OAD option, most people aren’t looking to burn a pick on Doug Ghim. However, Ghim continues to play exceptionally well, coming off of another strong showing at TPC Sawgrass.

Ghim leads the field in strokes gained on Par 5s and ranks 11th in SG: Approach. He has five consecutive T20 finishes and seems on the precipice of a breakout performance. A course that favors ball striking seems tailored to Ghim’s skill set.

Likely a popular DFS option, Ghim is in unfamiliar territory on the odds board. Don’t let that scare you off. Ghim feels like a strong ladder option for this tournament.

Maverick McNealy +5500

McNealy opened some eyes at TPC Sawgrass when he flashed his potential upside in full health. Heading into Sunday, McNealy was in the top five and shot a closing 72 to lock up a second T10 finish over his last four events. He has not missed a cut since the American Express and could be considered one of the better golfers in this field when he is healthy.

McNealy leads the field in scrambling and ranks highly in putting. He will need to clean up the T2G game to contend at the Copperhead Course. He gained 7.7 strokes from tee-to-green last week and made the cut at his only appearance at the Valspar. As an outright bet, he might be worth a shot this week in good form.

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