Primetime Parlay: Vikings vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:32:31

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Minnesota Vikings versus the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

Inexplicably, the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings find themselves in the mix for the playoffs ahead of a pivotal Sunday Night Football matchup. The Denver Broncos, left for dead after a loss to Miami, beat the Chiefs and Bills over the last couple of games to push back into playoff contention. After Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins were hurt, the Vikings continued to win behind Josh Dobbs. So, what looked like a brutal primetime football game a few weeks ago could have more meaning than any game on Sunday’s slate. We will take a look at betting odds, stats, and injuries prior to building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook with the help of ParlayIQ.

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Vikings vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay

The Broncos are 3-point favorites at home against the visiting Vikings as of Sunday morning. Per SAO, only 46% of betting tickets are with the Denver spread while 66% of money wagered on the spread falls with the home team. The implied game total rests at 41 points — down from 43 — and we have another set of differing opinions. 55% of betting tickets were placed on the over while 60% of the money is on the under. The resurgent Denver defense could be giving the heavier bettors pause.

As for injuries, Justin Jefferson was not activated off of the IR and will miss the Sunday night contest. This is not good news for the Vikings, traveling to play a team that has given fits to the Chiefs and Bills. K.J. Osborn seems poised to play, but Alexander Mattison is questionable with his concussion. For the Broncos, Marvin Mims and Jerry Jeudy were removed from the injury report and will play on Sunday night.

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Josh Dobbs has been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season. After signing about a week ahead of the regular season with the Cardinals, Dobbs made an Arizona team seemingly fated to come in last place competitive every week, with a signature upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Dobbs was traded to Minnesota presumably to make way for a returning Kyler Murray and was thrust into action immediately when Minnesota’s rookie backup was hurt in his first game.

Dobbs, hardly in Minnesota long enough to know the names of his teammates, already booked two victories for a Minnesota team that is very alive for a playoff berth. Dobbs has 3 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 0 interceptions thus far with the Vikings.

Here is a look at the relevant team statistics on offense for both teams…

Minnesota Offense
12th — 23.3 PPG
9th — 5.6 YPP
10th — 7.4 Passing YPA
28th — 3.7 Rushing YPA

Denver Offense
15th — 21.8 PPG
15th — 5.2 YPP
19th — 6.9 Passing YPA
6th — 4.6 Rushing YPA

The Denver defense will struggle to climb statistically because of the game against Miami. That said, the Broncos defense is ranked last in scoring but 2nd over the last 3 games (allowing only 16 PPG). We are not talking about weak opponents. The Broncos beat the Chiefs and Bills in back-to-back games, two of the league’s highest-scoring offenses.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota defense is in the middle of the pack with respect to scoring defense and passing defense. Yet, the Vikings are in the top 5 in rushing defense. The Broncos will be in a pickle, as running the football is one of the team’s best assets. Russell Wilson might have to throw more than usual in tonight’s contest.

Let’s take a look at ParlayIQ’s review of the thousands of simulations of this game and cook up a fun ticket to sweat along with tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football

Denver Moneyline
Williams Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
Osborn Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

Denver Moneyline

ParlayIQ opens with a big stand on the Broncos. A Denver victory takes place in 60% of the simulations of tonight’s contest. This makes plenty of sense. You could argue a letdown spot for either team after a couple of emotional victories. The difference: Denver is at home.

The Denver defense has been incredible of late against the Chiefs and Bills. With all due respect to Josh Dobbs, he is not Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. While Dobbs will have my rooting interest for the remainder of the season, I think it is time for the fairy tale to hit a road bump. Will the Vikings make the playoffs? Probably. This week though, I think Denver plays a spoiler in that story.

We open with the Denver moneyline and should look to tie in a favorable Denver player prop to correlate.

Javonte Williams Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

With so many receiving options for a quarterback that will spread the ball around, I am not excited about any of them. That said, Javonte Williams seems to have a hold on the bulk of the workload in the Denver backfield. With that workload comes targets in the receiving game as well.

Williams has 3 or more targets in his last 3 games and went over his passing prop last week. Williams had 30+ receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Despite Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine there to take some targets, Williams will be on the field enough to catch a swing pass or two.

ParlayIQ had this in more than 70% of simulations without even considering the first leg. I agree.

K.J. Osborn Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, with Justin Jefferson still not returning for the Vikings, Dobbs will need to throw the ball to Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn often. While T.J. Hockenson seems poised for another heavy workload, Osborn should be considered for a few targets.

Before having a concussion in the Atlanta Falcons, Osborn had 4 straight games where he exceeded this receiving number. Assuming Osborn plays in tonight’s game, I think I agree with ParlayIQ and would peg Osborn for a solid receiving day against a team that has surrendered plenty of yards throughout the course of the season.