Vikings vs. Lions Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Vikings vs. Lions Odds
| Vikings Odds | +3 |
| Lions Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| Date | Sunday, January 5, 2024 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL has saved the best for last. This year’s regular season will conclude with a highly anticipated matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, with the winner securing the NFC North division title and No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 3-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, this evening’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Lions has the highest O/U for any game during the last 3 seasons, and it is the highest pre-game total since the Chiefs and Titans were listed at O/U 59 in 2021.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
What to expect from Darnold, Vikings offense
Since Week 11, there have been few quarterbacks who have been more productive than Sam Darnold. During that 7-game stretch, Darnold ranks 6th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, 5th in success rate, and 11th in CPOE. He had a sterling 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a perfect 7-0 record in that span as well.
Notably, Darnold has cut his turnover-worthy play rate to 2.7% across his last 7 games, which is a dramatic improvement from his 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate from Week 1 to Week 10. For context, only 7 quarterbacks in the entire NFL had a higher rate of turnover-worthy plays than Darnold entering Week 11, and nobody had thrown more interceptions.
Darnold’s improved ball security has helped Minnesota’s offense post the 6th-most efficient passing attack during the second half of the regular season while ranking 3rd best in success rate. They will likely need another big game from him in Week 18, with RB Aaron Jones limited earlier this week at practice and the team’s ground attack leaving much to be desired in recent weeks.
Pat Jones II ruled OUT
The most notable injury news for Minnesota ahead of kickoff on Sunday is the absence of Pat Jones II, who is 3rd on the team with 7 sacks and 9 tackles for loss in 2024. Jones suffered a knee injury in Week 17 against the Packers, limiting him to only 8 snaps.
Fortunately for the Vikings, they have rookie EDGE Dallas Turner, who is a tremendously capable replacement for Jones. Turner has played 25+ snaps in 4 of the team’s last 5 games, recording 2 sacks and an interception during that time period.
Since Week 13, Minnesota’s defense ranks 11th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate. They have performed near the league average against the pass in that stretch, but their once stout run defense has regressed to 23rd in success rate across their last 5 games. This is an area to watch on Sunday, facing a Detroit offense that runs the ball as well as anyone in the entire NFL.
Detroit Lions Preview
Goff looking to put finishing touches on career-best regular season
Jared Goff has put together a banner year in 2024. He’s already thrown a career-high 36 touchdowns and is averaging a career-best 8.7 yards per pass attempt while completing a career-high 71.7% of his passes. He needs only 178 passing yards to set a new personal best in that category for a single season, and he is on pace for career highs in passer rating, QBR, and EPA/dropback as well. Most importantly, he has helped Detroit win 14 of their first 16 games.
Simply, there aren’t many quarterbacks playing at a higher level than Goff is right now. He ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 1st in success rate this season among qualified quarterbacks, and he has been better than everyone not named Lamar Jackson since Thanksgiving. The Lions’ offense has scored at least 34 points in each of their last 4 games and has shown little indication that they plan on slowing down anytime soon.
In 6 games against teams that rank in the top 10 in defensive DVOA this year, Detroit’s offense has averaged 33.2 points, scoring at least 24 points in each of those contests. Led by Goff, this is an elite unit that is capable of putting up points against anyone.
Detroit defense to get much-needed boost
Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injury this season, losing EDGE Marcus Davenport, EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, DE Alim McNeill, CB Carlton Davis III, and a number of key depth pieces. The good news for the Lions is that LB Alex Anzalone is trending toward making his return to the field in Week 18, which would mark his first action since Week 11.
Anzalone’s return couldn’t come at a better time given that Detroit’s linebacker unit is also missing Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes right now. Anzalone is 5th on the team in tackles this season despite playing in only 9 of 16 games. He’s one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL as well, ranking 6th out of 79 qualified players at his position in 2024, per PFF. His presence should immediately help solidify the Lions’ defense in the middle of the field, an area where they have been torched by opposing tight ends in his absence.
Vikings vs. Lions Prediction
Make no mistake, this Sunday Night Football matchup features two of the league’s most potent offensive attacks and a pair of quarterbacks who should receive down-ballot MVP votes this season. Still, this is an extremely high total – especially for a game that has significant playoff implications.
Per Evan Abrams, this is the highest total we have seen in a regular season game since 2021. The look-ahead line inflated considerably after the public watched Detroit’s defense get torched by San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 17, but many people are unaware that the Lions’ defense is getting some much needed reinforcements back on the field for this key divisional showdown.
The other important factor at play here is that, although Detroit’s defense has struggled more of late, both of these teams rank in the top 7 in defensive DVOA in 2024. The Lions and Vikings combined for 60 points in their first head-to-head meeting this year, but neither team cracked 400 yards of total offense or had 20 first downs in that matchup. There were nearly 100 yards worth of penalties in addition to nearly a dozen explosive plays. That is a difficult game script to reproduce.
There are a number of ways in which this game could go under such a high total. It would take an extremely efficient day from both offenses for this game to end up near 60 points, which gives the under some value from a probabilistic perspective.
PICK: UNDER 56.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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