Commanders vs. Bears Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Commanders vs. Bears Odds
| Commanders Odds | -1 |
| Bears Odds | +1 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 13 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
This evening, Week 6 of the NFL regular season will begin with a matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. Entering play, both teams find themselves below the .500 mark, with neither team possessing a current playoff position. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these underwhelming rosters, pricing Washington as a 1-point road favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Washington Commanders
Last year with the Indianapolis Colts, Carson Wentz finished the season with a 27-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In five weeks with the Commanders, Wentz has already thrown six interceptions en route to a losing record. Only Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Mitchell Trubisky, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield have posted a worse EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks. Injuries on the offensive line have hurt the running game as well, which has contributed to a rush attack that ranks 25th in yards-per-carry. Even against a weak defense, this is not a group that can be trusted to put up a substantial amount of points.
Despite not having former first round draft pick Chase Young on the field to begin the new campaign, Washington’s defense has been respectable – ranking 15th in EPA/play through five games. The Commanders have been especially good against the run, allowing only 4.2 yards-per-carry and ranking 5th in EPA/play. Facing a Chicago offense that ranks 20th in offensive EPA/play, Washington’s defense should be able to turn in a strong performance tonight.
Chicago Bears
In Justin Fields first two games this year, he threw for only 297 total passing yards. In Week 4 and Week 5, Fields combined for 382 passing yards, but was still sacked eight times playing behind a porous offensive line. Khalil Herbert has been strong out of the backfield, averaging 5.9 yards-per-carry and scoring three times on the ground. Still, the inability to push the ball down-the-field, and the lack of protection for Fields has limited the offensive output for this group tremendously. In five contests to begin 2022, Chicago ranks 28th in points per game.
Defensively, the Bears have not been much better – ranking 21st in opponent passing yards per play through the air and 24th in opponent yards-per-carry. The advanced metrics have not been fond of this Chicago defense either, with the Bears ranking 23rd in EPA/play on the season. Chicago could be particularly vulnerable in the slot in this one, with Kyler Gordon being tasked with slowing down Curtis Samuel. Despite being at home and facing a weak opposing offense, this defense is no guarantee to have a strong day.
Commanders vs. Bears – Picks & Predictions
After Ron Rivera’s postgame press conference following a Week 5 loss to the Tennessee Titans, many people are expecting Carson Wentz and company to have an extremely solid performance on the offensive side of the ball. Though Washington has tbe benefit of playing one of the worst defenses in the league this evening, they are still playing on a short week, and they still have many key deficiencies that will not magically disappear. Washington’s defense has been underrated so far this fall, and should have little trouble slowing down Justin Fields through the air. Expect another Thursday Night low-scoring affair – take the under.
PICK: Under 38 (-110, MGM)
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