The Future is Now - Week 16 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
The 49ers trimmed their NFC champion/Super Bowl odds again in Week 15, so we got some solid value last week.
Swearing off the NFC South was more of a mental victory than anything, but it did get even messier over there. It’s tempting to fire off more division-winner bets but stay strong, folks.
Bet This in Week 16: Jalen Hurts to Win MVP (+550 on Caesars)
I love hedging. I understand the arguments against it and I’m certainly not perfect at it. But I love it.
Normal bets are binary. When the game is over, you are right or wrong. Futures bets are more fluid. You can be right and lose. And I can’t handle that. I need to profit off of getting something right.
We bet Patrick Mahomes to win MVP at +450 on Caesars back in Week 6. He’s now -300 on Caesars. We were right!
But this market has been all over the place. Hurts’ shoulder injury caused the odds to flip-flop this week with Mahomes propelling forward as the clear favorite. It’s going to be a short absence. Shoot, Hurts hasn’t been ruled out for this week.
Could definitely be flushing some profit away, but I can accept that. With these two tickets plus the Burrow long shot, we should have this market covered (hopefully Josh Allen isn’t reading this).
Don’t Bet This in Week 15: Jacksonville Jaguars to Win the AFC South (+125 on DraftKings)
The South divisions both stink. But Jacksonville has won 3-of-4, all against potential playoff teams. The Jaguars have cut the Titans’ lead to just one game. We should get a showdown for the division crown in Week 18.
Until then, let’s hold off. Jacksonville is a slight favorite against New York on Thursday. That’s a tough spot. Tennessee gets Houston so decent chance the divisional lead stretches to two games.
Week 17 is the opposite. The Jaguars get the Texans, while the Titans host the Cowboys. Depending on how this week goes, could get some nice odds on Jacksonville to win the division ahead of those favorable Week 17 matchups.