The Future is Now - Week 6 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
Welp, so much for the Brian Robinson bet. The Associated Press announced he would not be eligible to win Comeback Player of the Year since he’s a rookie. Robinson is no longer on the board and bets have been voided.
The Titans survived against Washington and head into their bye week. Just need to take care of business against the Colts and Texans and their Miss the Playoffs number should be sweet.
Decided to scrap the overall record, was going to get too arbitrary and misleading. But I’ll add a section at the bottom with bets we’re still tracking.
Bet This in Week 6: Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+450 on Caesars)
MVP is a four-horse race right now, with Josh Allen the clear favorite ahead of Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. This week’s Bills/Chiefs matchup could go a long way in deciding the award.
The resumes for Allen and Mahomes are remarkably similar through five weeks.
- Allen: 1,651 yards (1st), 14 TDs (2nd), 78.5 QBR (T-3rd)
- Mahomes: 1,398 yards (4th), 15 TDs (1st), 78.5 QBR (T-3rd)
- Both teams are 4-1
Allen’s rushing stats (225 yards and 2 TDs) make him the rightful favorite, but Mahomes has half the interceptions and a worse supporting cast.
The Chiefs are home underdogs on Sunday. An upset win likely trims Mahomes’ odds to the +200 range, assuming he plays well.
Don’t Bet This in Week 6: New York Giants to Make the Playoffs (+112 on FanDuel)
A 4-1 team with plus money playoff odds?! Getting a little greedy here, but this number should be even better after this week. The Giants are coming off a huge win in London against the Packers, but this is a letdown spot at home against the Ravens.
After Week 6, it should be smooth sailing for New York: at Jacksonville, at Seattle, BYE, vs. Houston, vs. Detroit. The Giants should be favorites in at least three of those matchups. If they can take 3-of-4, they’re sitting at 7-2 after Week 10.
The schedule for the final two months of the season isn’t nearly as favorable, but they get Washington twice and Philadelphia in what is likely a meaningless Week 18 game for the Eagles. There’s a path to 9-10 wins here and that’s a playoff team in the NFC.
Bets we’re tracking
- Titans to Miss the Playoffs (bet after Week 8)
- Giants to Make the Playoffs (bet after Week 6)