Week 4 NFL Betting Picks for Every Game
Hey, everyone! Welcome back to SharpSide’s Weekly NFL Betting Breakdown. If you haven’t read this article before, I will be breaking down my favorite football bets for every single NFL game in the current week. That includes over/under totals, point spreads, and even some prop bets.
One thing you should know is that if you were to bet every single game and over/under total each week, you are almost guaranteed to end up in the red in the long run. Vegas lines are good and Vegas makes money for a reason, but my breakdown aims to help you with this. In my breakdown, I will provide a rating next to each bet to show my interest on each one. The rating will range from 1-10. A rating of 1 means there is a very small edge, in my opinion, and this is just the line that I would pick if I were forced to. A rating of 10 means it’s one of my favorite bets of the week and I think it has a huge edge.
Keep in mind when placing bets that you should never wager more than you can afford and no matter how good the odds are you will basically never find something that is a “sure thing,” unless you actually have a friend in the mob who is literally breaking some legs (if you do, you either need to report that person to the authorities immediately or you need to start feeding me those bets and never tell me the reason why for my own legal reasons!).
Week 3 Recap
So, let’s take a look at another terrible week for me.
Simply put, I have given you one of the best winning strategies in all of NFL sports betting. Take what I suggest and do the opposite. Obviously, this season hasn’t started out how I wanted it to, but we are only three weeks in. If you really want to believe that I’m this bad, then simply fade every side I pick and go with the opposite. If you’re right, you’re going to win a lot of money over the course of the season. If you’re wrong, then you’re going to lose a lot of money. Only time will tell.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Over/under: 44
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
My Pick: DET (+3) – rating 9/10
My Pick: Under 44 – rating 7/10
Here we get a matchup that has a team in the Detroit Lions that is willing to pass the ball on pretty much every single down facing off against a Dallas Cowboys team that seems determined to hide “(player-popup #dak-prescott)Dak Prescott”:/players/dak-prescott-35539’s inability to pass the ball. The latter isn’t entirely Prescott’s fault, though, as his receiving core resembles that of a retirement home’s flag football league. This game also has a Dallas team that is in the middle of the pack in terms of opponent pace and at near the bottom of the league in offensive pace. On the other side, Detroit is near the top for pace and allows the third least opponent snaps per game.
Looking at the line of Cowboys (-3), I’m siding with the Lions. I believe that the ball is likely in their hands a whole lot more during this game than in Dallas’, and with no real offense for Dallas I don’t expect “America’s Team” to put up many points. The Cowboys have only scored 41 points this year, which ranks 31st in the league.
Dallas hasn’t hit an over this year and has only hit the over six times in their last 19 games. This game is going to end in the 17-10 range with Detroit winning outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Over/under: 46
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Soldier Field
Chicago, IL
My Pick: CHI (-3) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Under 46 – rating 4/10
In this one, we have a super hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that does well when Ryan Fitzpatrick has time to throw going up against a great Chicago Bears defensive line. On the year, Tampa Bay has greatly exceeded expectations with Fitzpatrick under center. With the public basically split whether to buy into this or not, I’m rolling with the belief that Fitzpatrick is good, but will struggle in the right situation.
Since Matt Nagy has taken over, Chicago has run a conservative, yet creative, offensive scheme, not allowing Mitch Trubisky to air the ball out a whole lot and relying on short, well-designed plays. I don’t expect the Bears to put a ton of points up in this game, but I expect them to win the game and probably cover.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Over/under: 48
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, MA
My Pick: NE (-6.5) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 48 – rating 9/10
Right now, we have the Miami Dolphins sitting at 3-0 and we have the New England Patriots at 1-2. Clearly, we are living in Bizarro World here. The Patriots have drastically underperformed this year and the Dolphins has drastically over-performed. I don’t really like the spread in this game and would probably roll with Miami if it were still at (-7), but I’ll take New England at (-6.5) with low confidence.
The bet here is the under of 48. On the year, New England has failed to hit the over twice. With Miami being one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, I expect this game to play at a pretty slow pace. While the New England offense should be better if Josh Gordon is able to suit up in this matchup, I don’t expect much out of either of these teams. With 70% of the tickets coming in on the over in this game and Las Vegas failing to move the line, I expect this game to hit the under handily. Look for a 21-13 Patriots win.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-5)
Over/under: 52
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, GA
My Pick: ATL (-5) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Under 52 – rating 7/10
We have a game here with two teams that are 5-1 on the over so far this year and the public is hammering it. The over/under line opened at 48 and has quickly moved up to 52. With 81% of the public still on the over, I’m taking the other side. I think that, realistically, the total that this one opened up at was probably the right one. With so much of the public on one side, I’m almost always going to take the other when the line moves far enough.
As for the spread, It’s about where it should be and I’m staying away entirely.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Over/under: 45.5
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, WI
My Pick: GB (-9.5) – rating 5/10
My Pick: Under 45.5 – rating 3/10
After the Buffalo Bills shocked everyone by absolutely crushing the Minnesota Vikings on the road last weekend, people are going to overreact to a pretty large extent. The Bills have been huge underdogs in every game this season and have still managed to beat the spread only once (granted it was decisively).
The line here started here at (-12) and has moved down to (-9.5), which is far enough for me to like Green Bay. The game is being played in Green Bay, where the Packers have one of the better home-field advantages in football and I don’t really see Buffalo putting up a whole lot of points again. Eat the points with Green Bay and if you really want, you can take the under.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Over/under: 47
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, IN
My Pick: HOU (+1.5) – rating 8/10
My Pick: Over 47 – rating 8/10
We have two teams here that people expected to be much better with their star quarterbacks returning from injury, but on the year these teams have a single victory combined. As of right now, the public is absolutely hammering the under (75% of bets) and the Indianapolis side (69% of bets). I think this is a terrible decision. While both these teams are middle of the road in pace and points scored, Houston is much better than people believe and have a lot of big-play potential. Indianapolis has played some fairly slow-paced teams this year.
I expect a road blowout, with the Texans winning outright 34-20.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Over/under: 38.5
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, FL
My Pick: NYJ (+7.5) – rating 6/10
My Pick: Under 38.5 – rating 7/10
This year, both these offenses have been less than stellar and both these defenses have failed to allow big games. In fact, neither team has allowed more than 21 points to opposing teams this season. I don’t expect either team to put up more than 14 points here. The New York Jets have failed to eclipse the 17-point mark in their last two games, and the first game was an aberration where Matthew Stafford got picked off something like 25 times and the defense alone scored near enough for the over to hit. Now, the Jets get a matchup against the best defense in the league. With a full 7.5-point spread, I’m taking the underdog in what should be an incredibly low-scoring game. Take the under here and take the points with the Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tennessee Titans
Over/under: 41
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, TN
My Pick: TEN (+3) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Under 41 – rating 5/10
I don’t like this game at all. Philadelphia is the 3-point road favorite and Tennessee has played pretty well this season. Whether Marcus Mariota plays or not is mostly irrelevant. These are two very slow-paced teams that are likely to run the ball a good amount and are hurt by injuries. This is a stay-away game for me, but if you’re going to go with anything it’s probably just the under, as whoever gets a lucky pick-six or big play is likely to win the game.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3)
Over/under: 45
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET
Oakland Alameda Coliseum
Oakland, CA
My Pick: CLE (+3) – rating 10/10
My Pick: Under 45 – rating 10/10
It appears that the public isn’t buying into all the Baker Mayfield hype right now and that’s fine. I’m not completely sure if I do either, but what I am buying into is that this Cleveland Browns defense is actually good. They’ve gone up against two high-powered offenses and have not allowed more than 21 points in a single game. Now, they get a matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who haven’t scored more than 20 points all season.
Oakland and Cleveland combine have only hit the over two times in six total games, and Cleveland is 3-0 against the spread this season, while Oakland is 1-2. This is my favorite spot of the week where I’m getting the better team, two low-powered offenses, and underrated defenses. Hammer both of these lines, Browns (+3) and the under. The game will end 17-13 with Cleveland coming out on top. Book it now.
Seattle Seahawks (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
Over/under: 39
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, AZ
My Pick: ARI (+4) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 39 – rating 5/10
This game features two garbage offenses facing up against each other with the Seattle Seahawks as 4-point road favorites and playing the worst team in the league with a rookie QB in his first start. This has trash written all over it. I want to stay away entirely, as the outcome on this game will likely come down to turnover variance and just be a grind-it-out, awful football game. Bet the under, but know that it’s still not a great bet.
New Orleans Saints (-4) at New York Giants
Over/under: 50.5
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET
MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ
My Pick: NO (-4) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under50.5 – rating 4/10
This is mostly a stay-away game for me. The New Orleans Saints are only a modest 4-point favorite here on the road and their defense has been suspect so far this year, but this feels like a trap game. This could end up being a shootout with the team scoring the last touchdown coming out on top.
I think that the Saints are the better team and they should be able to handle the New York Giants pretty easily, but I am in no way confident about it so I’m staying away for the most part.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
Over/under: 46.5
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET
StubHub Center
Carson, CA
My Pick: SF (+10.5) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Over 46.5 – rating 1/10
I’ve been wrong on every single Los Angeles Chargers bet this year, so now’s the time to go the exact opposite of what I normally do. I have no real hold on this game at all, but I’m higher on CJ Beathard than most people and I expect this game to be closer and higher scoring than most. Again, take this with a grain of salt because I can’t get them right to save my life and realistically you should probably go hard on the opposite side of whatever I’m picking.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Over/under: 50.5
Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 8:20 p.m. ET
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, PA
My Pick: PIT (-3) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Over 50.5 – rating 8/10
Both this teams have actually been decent this year. Baltimore is sporting a 2-1 record, while Pittsburgh is sitting at 1-1-1 with one of the tougher schedules this season. So far, both teams are near the top of the league in points scored and the Steelers defense has been Swiss cheese all season. I’m giving a slight edge here to Pittsburgh just because I buy into the Ben Roethlisberger home/road splits, but I’m not going to be surprised either way.
The bet I really like here is the over on 50.5. On the season, these teams have hit the over in five of six games and this is likely to be a shootout. Even though, historically, these games have been lower scoring, these are two very different teams. Stay away from the spread here, but hammer the over.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Denver Broncos
Over/under: 56
Monday, October 1, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET
Mile High Stadium
Denver, CO
My Pick: KC (-4) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 56 – rating 1/10
I’ve got Kansas City wrong all season, so I’m not going to pretend to know what I’m talking about here. I’m just looking at the fact that they’ve covered in every game and that Denver has failed to cover once all year. I’m also buying into the fact that eventually the under has to hit in one of KC’s games. I wouldn’t trust me if I were you, but if you really want to, I prefer KC (-4) and the under.