The Future is Now - Week 8 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
The 49ers are tied for last in the NFC West and yet they’re the (rightful) favorites to win the division. The addition of Christian McCaffrey certainly helps. Last week’s lost to Kansas City kept their odds down, still ripe for the picking at +130 in multiple spots.
We got the confirmation we were waiting for with Tua’s solid Sunday night performance. The Steelers’ defense buckled down after the 1st quarter, but Miami showed enough to back them confidently to make the playoffs. The number is still a playable -175 at Caesars.
Bet This in Week 8: Anybody but Tampa Bay to win the NFC South (pick your favorite)
I don’t know the right answer here. It could be the Bucs. It’s just not obviously the Bucs. They’re -200 on the low end (DraftKings) and all the way up at -275 on the high end (PointsBet).
Tampa Bay has dropped 4-of-5, capping off the stretch with losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina. That’s not good. The Bucs are slight dogs on Thursday night against the Ravens. If they lose that one, these odds have to move. A 3-5 team can’t be a slam dunk favorite to win a division.
Quick cases for the other three options (who also stink):
- Falcons (+390 on FanDuel) – Competitive every week (6-1 ATS), cupcake schedule coming up (vs. Carolina, at LA Chargers, at Carolina, vs. Chicago, at Washington, vs. Pittsburgh).
- Saints (+1200 on PointsBet) – Jameis Winston coming back, beat Atlanta already and have historically owned the Brady-led Bucs.
- Panthers (+2000 on FanDuel) – They’re one game back with wins over both New Orleans and Atlanta. And come on, it’s 20-1.
Again, I don’t know the right answer. But there’s value here. Pick your favorite and put a couple bucks on it.
Don’t Bet This in Week 8: Cincinnati to Make the Playoffs (-155 on BetMGM)
The Bengals are back. The Super Bowl hangover looked real after two weeks, but they’ve won 4-of-5 on the strength of some massive Joe Burrow performances.
Cincinnati certainly looks like a playoff team. But, they get Cleveland this week. And that’s been a problem recently.
The Browns swept them last season, and while that includes a Week 18 game where the Bengals rested their starters, it also includes a 41-16 drubbing in Cincinnati. Cleveland also swept them in 2020.
If this trend continues, the Bengals to make the playoffs number will be much more palatable ahead of Week 9. With Carolina at home, a bye week and then Pittsburgh in Week 11, they should quickly right the ship.
Bets we’re tracking
- Dolphins to Make the Playoffs (bet NOW)
- Titans to Miss the Playoffs (bet after Week 8)
- Bengals to Make the Playoffs (bet after Week 8)