Weekly MLS Targets: Saturday, June 13th
For the last week I’ve been pretty unsuccessful with my DFS MLB results. I’ve rostered everybody from Felix Hernandez, to Matt Harvey. I’ve had the pleasure of experiencing duds by my pitchers AND my batters on a very consistent basis. Luckily for me (and us) we have other sports this summer to spend our money time on including DFS MLS.
Expected Goals
As many of you have come to learn, each week I’ve been trying to give a bit of a strategy overview on DFS soccer as a way to teach the newcomer an extra piece of ammunition to hold on to when making lineups. This week will be no different as I will look to explore the concept of the “expected goal”. Expected goal is an emerging stat in soccer that tries to measure how many goals a team (or player) should have scored based on where the majority of shots have been taken and a few other factors including was the shot taken from a cross, was it a result of a counter-attack, was it from a corner, was it a header, etc. The basic premise behind the xG is that it can predict the number of goals you should score based on the quality of the shot. It’s corollary the xA is based on whether a player delivered a pass that should have progressed into an assist.
There are a number of places that have this stat available, but a precious few that have taken the time to explain their methodology. Advanced soccer analytics is currently in its infancy and as such there are a precious few sources for the data. There are a couple of places that attempt to outline their methodology and because of that, I’ve tended to trust them a little with my soccer research (at least the statistical side of things, treat them like you would FanGraphs without all the advanced filters and tables.) I fully suspect the statistical revolution in soccer will be coming sooner rather than later (there was even a Sloan Conference paper that was presented in 2015 regarding the expected goal.)
So how does this help us for our current MLS season? Well, the xG presented on ASA can be used to determine if a player is currently overachieving or underachieving relative to their shot attempts and their quality. One example of a player in an underachieving position is Quincy Amarikwa for the Chicago Fire who has scored 0 goals on the season and has an xG of 4.25 in 776 minutes played this season. Another example of a player in an overachieving position is Will Bruin of the Houston Dynamo who in 931 minutes has an xG of 2.46 but has actually scored 7 goals on the season. Obviously, this doesn’t take into account a big factor, which is finishing ability. Could Will Bruin just be a superior finisher and Amarikwa just a sub-par finisher at the goal? Examining the last few seasons both Amarikwa appeared to be very close at season’s end in terms of their G and xG output leaving me to believe that these two will end up regressing to the mean as the season plays along.
Saturday Slate
So for this week, where does that leave us? we have four matches on Saturday, so it’s a slightly smaller slate, as pointed out last week we are missing quite a few key players due to international duty and injury. So paying attention to starting XI lineups will be important. Luckily, we have a late start today so no babysitting twitter or the MLS app for 8 hours waiting for lineups. For this week, the home teams are still favorites (as they usually are in MLS), and we have a few spots to really take advantage of when building our lineups. So without further ado, let’s get on with the picks.
Goalkeepers
Stefan Frei, Seattle Sounders $5,800 – As the biggest favorites on the day, Frei and Seattle face a relatively easy matchup with a Dallas team that has regressed back to a league average offense after starting off as one of the top offenses. In fact, in their last six away matches, Dallas has a negative goal differential of four goals and has only managed 6 goals. I believe that Seattle will over-power Dallas in this western conference matchup and Frei should find himself with the win bonus and a potential clean sheet.
Steven Clark, Columbus Crew $5,200 – This is my GPP pick as Columbus are coming off five winless weeks and have conceded 11 goals in their last six matches. So why am I recommending them? Their opponent, the LA Galaxy are winless on the road and have only scored four goals in six matches. Are they due for any regression? They should be playing Gyasi Zardes up front as a striker, alongside Alan Gordon. Combined, Zardes and Gordon have seven goals on the season and an xG of slightly lower than six goals. They are facing a goalkeeper who has allowed 21 goals on an xG of 19.99 and a 30% conversion ratio (way higher than his career average) I expect that regression will work both ways today, and while Clark may concede a goal, there is a good chance that Columbus return to their winning ways this week and he gets the win bonus at least.
Other Keeper Options: Bobby Shuttleworth (New England $5,500), Jon Busch (Chicago, $3,900)
Defenders
Waylon Francis, Columbus Crew $5,400 – If we’re going to predict that Columbus play better offensively and manage to get the win, I predict that Waylon Francis will be a contributing factor in that improved performance. Francis should find himself some open looks and some improved offensive numbers from the wing. I predict some crosses as well as some passes that may lead to shots. What gives me pause is his xA numbers, for the season Francis has 4 assists on 1.4 xA. Of course he has the top striker in the league Kei Kamara to deliver passes/crosses to, so that will skew the numbers slightly in his favor. This is a GPP play and will be interesting to see whether he continues to drift far from his xA numbers or if he regresses to the mean.
Chris Tierney, New England Revolution $5,200 – Not counting secondary assists (hockey assists)Tierney has zero assists on the season. His xA number indicates he should have at least 3-4 assists for this season. With New England being a big home favorite today, Tierney deserves some attention for your defensive spot. His price is expensive, but it will be very tough to find some cheap defenders unless the starting XI have some surprises that can lead to some salary relief. Tierney can also provide crosses and the occasional shot that increase his floor slightly even if he doesn’t manage to find that elusive assist this week.
Other Defender Options: Tyrone Mears (Seattle, $5,900), Jeff Larentowicz (Chicago, $5,700), Chad Marshall (Seattle, $3,900), Laurent Ciman (Montreal, $4,000), Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy $4,900)
Midfielders
Federico Higuain, Columbus Crew $9,600 – He’s pricey, but Higuain should be starting in the front alongside Kei Kamara, and we’ve seen it in the past when a star striker with a high conversion rate has a talented attacking player next to him, it can only be good things. Higuain should be in a good position this week to score or assist (if not both) on a goal. On the season, he has 29 shots and 32 key passes. These have led to 2.54 xG and 2.78 xA. His actual totals are three goals and one assist. I like Higuain today as a safe midfield play that could deliver the goods and a high floor based on some good shot totals.
Ignacio Piatti, Montreal Impact $7,700 – Piatti is a solid player in an improved offense in the last few weeks. They are playing in Yankee stadium which surprisingly was not built for soccer and thus has smaller dimensions than your typical soccer field. What does this mean for the players? Piatti will be closer to goal at all times and thus have a better chance of whipping in crosses and/or shots on target. For the season Piatti has three goals and three assists. However, looking at the last four matches, Piatti has two goals and two assists that have led to his team’s improved form. In addition to this, Josh Saunders, the opposing keeper, has allowed 17 goals this season on 66 shots for a 25% conversion rate. What makes me confident that he’ll continue this conversion rate, is that Saunders’ xGA is 20.82 so he’s a full 3.82 goals behind his expected goals allowed tally. Montreal should be able to score some goals today against a porous NYC defense.
Other Midfielder Options: Harry Shipp (Chicago, $8,600), Lee Nguyen (New England, $7,900), Ethan Finlay (Columbus, $7,300), Mauro Diaz (FC Dallas, $8,200), Ignacio Maganto (LA Galaxy, $5,400), Lamar Neagle (Seattle, $6,600), Kelyn Rowe (New England, $6,700)
Forwards
David Villa, New York City FC $10,800 – David Villa might be the most talented striker in MLS. David Villa will be playing in Yankee Stadium where he won’t have to travel far to make it to the goal, David Villa takes a lot of shots. David Villa converts a lot of his shots on target. David Villa is a top play today. For the season, Villa has three goals on 4.94 xG off of 44 shots on goal. While Villa has only played 921 minutes, I expect him to start and play the majority of this matchup thus leading to plenty of opportunities to give his team a goal or two. He will at least take several shots that may ultimately lead to a high scoring night without scoring a goal. Wherever I can fit him, I’ll be rostering Villa today, and you should too.
Kei Kamara, Columbus $11,300 – I debated putting Dempsey in this spot, seeing as he’s $1K cheaper, plays for the better team and has the bigger odds at the win, but I think a lot of people will have Dempsey today in an attempt to save some money on since there are precious few value plays out there today. Kamara is my differential, which is tough to expect given that he is the top scorer of MLS so far this season, but he’s a roller coaster in terms of expected points if he doesn’t manage to score a goal. Kamara can fluctuate from 3 points up to 30 if he manages a goal or two. I would not fault you taking Dempsey or even the slightly cheaper Obefami Martins at forward, as all four top options are equally likely to score goals in my mind this week.
Quincy Amarikwa, Chicago Fire, $4,800 – Ok, here’s the value play. He carries considerable risk as he’s playing on the road against a team that has a +6 goal differential at home. However, New England isn’t unbeatable, nor do they shut down opponents. They have not allowed a clean sheet in their last four matches and with the previously mentioned Amarikwa regression forthcoming, this may be a good (albeit unlikely) spot for Amarikwa to come through. He will score a goal eventually, and Shuttleworth may be the guy who lets it in.
Jack McInerney, Montreal Impact $6,600 – In another attempt to find a cheap forward in a good spot offensively, McInerney fits the bill as he provides the upside needed to score a goal as well as the cheap price that we need in order to attempt to fill our rosters with the best players possible. McInerney is coming off a goal scoring week, and while he has not scored a goal away from Montreal so far, he is in a good spot this week.
Other Forward Options: Obefami Martins (Seattle, $9,700), Clint Dempsey (Seattle, $10,100), Fabian Castillo (Dallas, $8,900), Charlie Davies (New England, $8,800), Gyasi Zardes (LA Galaxy, $8,000), Alan Gordon (LA Galaxy, $5,300)